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Dangers Big and Small

Dangers Big and Small. Unconventional Threats to American Security. I. “Weapons of Mass Destruction:” Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical. A. Nuclear Weapons. Yield: Kilotons (KT) or Megatons (MT) of TNT Large weapons (MT range) require additional research. 2. Burst Type.

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Dangers Big and Small

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  1. Dangers Big and Small Unconventional Threats to American Security

  2. I. “Weapons of Mass Destruction:”Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical

  3. A. Nuclear Weapons • Yield: Kilotons (KT) or Megatons (MT) of TNT Large weapons (MT range) require additional research

  4. 2. Burst Type a. Surface: Smaller radius, lots of fallout: “dirty” b. Air: Larger radius, less fallout: “clean”

  5. 2. Example: 100 KT Surface Blast, Fort Hood Main Gate • 100 KT = larger than ordinary fission bomb, smaller than largest Russian weapons

  6. 15 psi: Virtually all dead 5 psi: 50% dead, 45% injured 2 psi: 5% dead, 45% injured) 1 psi: 25% injured

  7. Compare: 1 MT Surface Blast

  8. Compare: 20KT Surface Blast

  9. Example: 100 KT Surface: Fallout 1 hour: Lethal 2 hours: Lethal 3 hours: Lethal 4 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal 5 hours: Lethal and 50% Lethal Possible Zone of Sickness

  10. B. Biological Weapons • Characteristics: Dependent on type of agent and dispersal mechanism • Little military value: slow-acting, unpredictable, difficult to store • Primary purpose: Overload health care systems • Easy to build, difficult to make effective

  11. 5. Historical Examples

  12. C. Chemical Weapons 1. Purposes • Shock on battlefield • Reduced efficiency through protective gear 2. Mass Destruction? • Limited effectiveness against prepared defender • Huge quantities usually required 3. Examples: WWI, Iran-Iraq 4. Easiest to develop and use

  13. D. Proliferation 1. Suspected Arsenals (May 2003): 9 Nuke, 5 Bioweapon, 11 Chemical ?

  14. 2. Nuclear Stockpiles 2003

  15. D. Other forms of Mass Destruction • Radiological weapons (“Dirty Bombs) – similar to persistent chemical weapons (plus radiation) • EMP Weapons (“E-Bombs”) – Damage electronics

  16. E. International Law • Nuclear Proliferation • Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) • Non-members: India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea (withdrew) • Legal nuclear powers: US, Russia, UK, France, China • Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) • Never signed: North Korea, India, Pakistan • Signed but not yet ratified: United States (rejected), Israel, China • Biological Proliferation: Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) • Non-members: Israel, Syria (signed), Egypt (signed) • Against verification: United States • Chemical Proliferation: Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) • Never signed: Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Libya, North Korea • Signed but not yet ratified: Israel • Ratified but limiting inspections: United States, Pakistan

  17. 4. Current violations

  18. II. Terrorism A. Three central facts about terrorism 1. Terrorism is old – and might actually be decreasing

  19. 2. Terrorism is a global problem, not just a Middle Eastern one

  20. 2. Terrorism is a global problem, not just a Middle Eastern one

  21. Global Problem (2001)

  22. 3. Terrorism is not random or “crazy” • Psychology • Suicide bombers not suicidal • Often well-educated, middle class • Identifiable motives

  23. c. Substitution of means • Metal detectors  Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations

  24. c. Substitution of means • Metal detectors  Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations

  25. c. Substitution of means • Metal detectors  Fewer Skyjackings, More Hostage-Takings and Assassinations

  26. B. Defining Terrorism

  27. 1. FBI Definition • The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives. • Government cannot commit terrorism (unlawful) • Both civilian and military targets • Need not cause death or injury • Goal must be intimidation • Distinct from crime: Political or social objectives

  28. 2. Department of State • Premeditated, politically motivatedviolence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience. • Governments can commit terrorism – but only secretly • Noncombatant targets only • Must be violent • Need not intimidate • Distinct from crime: political violence

  29. 3. International Law • No agreed definition • Proposal: “Peacetime equivalent of war crimes.” • Bans targeting civilians • Bans nonmilitary violence (i.e. hostage-taking) • Governs both states and non-state actors

  30. 4. Can You Solve the Puzzle?Your definition in action

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