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The Economics of Crime and Justice

The Economics of Crime and Justice. Johnny Cash at Folsom Prison, 1968. Topics. Prisons in America Correctional Bureaucracy in CA The Serious Offender/Career Criminal Terrorism: A Preview. Bureaucracy: Readings. Albert Hirshman, Exit, Voice and Loyalty exit: voting with your feet

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The Economics of Crime and Justice

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  1. The Economics of Crime and Justice Johnny Cash at Folsom Prison, 1968

  2. Topics • Prisons in America • Correctional Bureaucracy in CA • The Serious Offender/Career Criminal • Terrorism: A Preview

  3. Bureaucracy: Readings • Albert Hirshman, Exit, Voice and Loyalty • exit: voting with your feet • voice: political action • Anthony Downs, Inside Bureaucracy • survival of the bureaucrat

  4. Prisons in America • Are we the land of the free and the home of the brave? • Are we the gulag? • Or both?

  5. Likelihood of Going to Prison in a Lifetime For Newborn 1/4 1/6 1/10 1/23 Source: Prevalence of Imprisonment in the U. S. Population, 1974-01

  6. Imprisonment Rates Per 100/000 http://virlib.ncjrs.org/Corrections.asp

  7. 1.3 million in prison; 4.3 million out but formerly in 12 % 25% Current/Total

  8. 2.7% of Adults have been in prison, one time or another

  9. And the % is projected to rise

  10. If born in 2001, chances or ever going to prison 6.6%

  11. If born a black male in 2001, lifetime chance is 32.2%, 1/3

  12. Growth rates in State and Federal Prisoners, 1995-2002 Source Prisoners in 2002

  13. 1980 Comparative International Rates of Incarceration

  14. The U.S. Incarceration Rate is Higher than for Russia, and South Africa; 7 times Italy and 8 times France

  15. CA Criminal Justice: examplesAlbert Hirschman, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty • Exit: choosing to live in a gated community • Voice: lobbying for per se laws for DUI • Voice: lobbying for victims’ rights bills and ballot initiatives

  16. No Czar for CA CJS Control Costs + Damages to Victims $ Expenditures Per Capita High Cost Inefficiency optimum Crime Control Technology Offenses per Capita

  17. No Czar for CJS • Offenses increase, public demands safety • Elected officials can increase police faster than they can build prisons • Arrests rise, courts clog • prison capacity rises • number of parolees rises

  18. Corrections Function • Probation Departments • Jails • city and county • Youth Authority • California State Department of Corrections • prisons

  19. State Department of Corrections as a Proportion of California Corrections . 100% 80% 60% Cities and Counties, CYA Share Dept. of Corrections 40% 20% 0% 73-74 75-76 77-78 79-80 81-82 83-84 85-86 87-88 89-90 91-92 Fiscal Year

  20. Slide 38

  21. California Corrections Bureaucracy • Prisoner and Parole Populations • Stocks • Felon New Admissions From Court • Inflow to Prison • Prisoners Released to Parole • Outflow from Prison/Inflow to Parole • Parole Violators • Outflow from Parole • Discharges from Parole and Deaths • Outflow from Parole

  22. California Department of Corrections1996 Parole Violators With a New Term 17,525 Felon New Admits 46,487 Releases to Parole 111,532 Discharged and Died 27,691 Prisoners 145,565 Parolees 100,935 Absconded 29,376 57,984 Parole Violators Returned to Custody Discharged and Died 3,984 Parolees At Large 18,034

  23. Correctional Trends in California: Custodial Populations • Prisoners Per Capita • Institutional Population • Felons • Civil Narcotics Addicts • Parolees Per Capita • Parole and Outpatient Population Supervised in California

  24. California Department of Corrections: Total Parole and Outpatient Population

  25. Correctional Trends in California: Inflows to Prison • Felon New Admissions from Court • Parole Violators Returned to Custody • Parole Violators With a New Term

  26. Two Policy Issues • Composition of New Admissions from Court • Large Volume of Parole Violators Returned to Prison

  27. SERIOUSNESS SURVEY (and months served in prison) RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS): MEAN 1. HOMICIDE _9.7__36 2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _8.3__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _9.4__66 4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _7.8__ 5. SELLING HEROIN _6.2__ 6. AUTO THEFT _5.7__17 7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _4.6__ 8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _3.5__ 9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _2.3__13 10. SNIFFING GLUE _2.0__

  28. At Least Two Inefficiencies • Using scarce prison space for less serious drug offenders • using scarce prison space for recycled parolees returned to custody ( drug test violators) • Consequence: composition of prisoners rises for drug offenders and falls for violent offenders

  29. Citizen Reaction to Release of Violent Offenders • Voice: Three Strikes Law • Polly Klass abduction and murder by a released violent offender

  30. Part II. The Serious Offender (the power of ideas) • Theoretical Justification for Detention Policy

  31. Part II • The Serious Offender • a few serious criminals account for most crimes • if free, each serious offender would commit crimes at the rate of per year • if there are N serious offenders, they would commit *N offenses per year, if free • if there are PR serious offenders in prison, then we save *PR offenses per year • the net observed offenses per year is: • OF = *N - *PR = (N -AD*S)

  32. Serious Offenders, N Prisoners, PR Population

  33. Serious Offenders, N Prisoners, PR Population If the Serious Offender Population grows faster than the Prison Population then crime gets worse

  34. Serious Offenders, N Prisoners, PR Population If the Prison Population grows faster than the Serious Offender Population then crime gets better

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