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Session 5.1.

Forecast Analysis. Session 5.1. Session Objectives. After this session, participants should be able to: Describe the process and intended outcome of the forecast analysis Conduct a forecast analysis (prepare if/then statements). Develop Work Plan and TORs. Collect and Compile Secondary

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Session 5.1.

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  1. WFP Initial EFSA Learning Forecast Analysis Session 5.1.

  2. WFP Initial EFSA Learning Session Objectives After this session, participants should be able to: • Describe the process and intended outcome of the forecast analysis • Conduct a forecast analysis (prepare if/then statements)

  3. WFP Initial EFSA Learning Develop Work Plan and TORs Collect and Compile Secondary Data Collect and Compile Primary Data using checklist Conduct Situation Analysis Conduct Forecast Analysis Produce Recommendations Write Initial EFSA report The Process How the current situation is likely to evolve

  4. WFP Initial EFSA Learning Forecast Analysis “Forecast analysis” in Initial EFSA should: • forecast likely evolution of the situation over the next three months: i.e. of the most likely scenario & groups whose food security will be at risk under this scenario • consider capacities of various actors (including the affected) to provide assistance

  5. WFP Initial EFSA Learning Principles of forecast analysis • Identify shocks and opportunities that may occur in the next 3 months, from the present situation • Identify effects that these events may have on food security, and which groups will be concerned • Prioritize events according to their probability of occurrence • Define the most likely scenario

  6. WFP Initial EFSA Learning Forecast Analysis Examples(starting from your situation analysis) 1. Generate forecasts… 2. Decide which is most likely scenario.

  7. WFP Initial EFSA Learning Forecast Analysis TGS #6, page 25 • the absolute severity of the current food insecurity and / or malnutrition situation • the relative severity of the current situation, compared with pre-crisis and usual seasonal variations; • the groups affected and their location(s); • the main causes of food insecurity and/or malnutrition; • people’s current coping capacities; • ongoing and planned assistance; • the likely evolution of the situation in the next three months; • the need to intervene to save lives and protect livelihoods. Response options are considered based on this information

  8. WFP Initial EFSA Learning Exercise 12. Forecast Analysis As a group: Based on the results of your situation analysis, prepare your team’s forecast analysis: how the most likely situation will evolve over the next three months. 30 minutes

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