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Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon (US Forest Service) Dana Sullivan, Sean Raffuse, Chris Ovard, Lyle Chinkin (Sonoma Technology) Lamb/Vaughan NASA ROSES Project Meeting UW, April 13, 2007. Current Status and Ongoing Development of BlueSky. BlueSky Framework. WEATHER FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT.

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current status and ongoing development of bluesky
Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon (US Forest Service)

Dana Sullivan, Sean Raffuse, Chris Ovard, Lyle Chinkin (Sonoma Technology)

Lamb/Vaughan NASA ROSES Project Meeting

UW, April 13, 2007

Current Status and Ongoing Development of BlueSky
slide2

BlueSky Framework

WEATHER FORECAST

MODEL OUTPUT

FIRE INFORMATION

REPORTING SYSTEMS

FUEL LOADING

MET INTERPRETER

CONSUMPTION

EMISSIONS

TRAJECTORIES

  • Framework is
  • Modular
  • Open-sourced
  • Portable

DISPERSION

SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS

slide3

BlueSky Framework

WEATHER FORECAST

MODEL OUTPUT

FIRE INFORMATION

REPORTING SYSTEMS

MM5

WRF

Wildfire ICS 209

FASTRACS

RAZU

Manual

Other

FUEL LOADING

MET INTERPRETER

FCCS

Hardy (West)

NFDRS

CONSUMPTION

CALMM5

CONSUME 1.02

CONSUME 3

BURNUP

EMISSIONS

EPM

FEPS

BURNUP

Idealized profile

HYSPLIT

TRAJECTORIES

  • Framework is
  • Modular
  • Open-sourced
  • Portable

DISPERSION

CALPUFF

HYSPLIT

SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS

real time products using bluesky

BlueSky + RAINS = BlueSkyRAINS

Real-time products using BlueSky
  • NWS Smoke
  • Forecast Product
  • (lower 48)
  • FCAMMS
  • (5 regional centers,
  • covering lower 48)
  • AirPACT3 & ClearSky
  • (PNW, Lamb & Vaughan, WSU)
bluesky west frank church evaluation findings and recommendations
BlueSky-West Frank Church Evaluation: Findings and Recommendations

Bluesky models long-range transport very well.

slide6
Fires are currently modeled as single plumes, lofting smoke unrealistically high and lowering ground impacts

In reality, fires are made of many burning areas lofting smoke to various heights

Plume Rise

Modeled

Reality

fire information issues
Fire Information Issues

Fire information

can be of poor

quality

Smoke predictions

depend on the fire

information

U.S. Fire Report Locations

Courtesy Tim Brown, DRI

which model is best

Light

Heavy

Which model is best?

Fuel Loadings

(even in the same veg type)

can vary hugely

Photos courtesy Ottmar et al.

Emissions based on

Fuel Load and Fuel

Consumption Model

Choices

slide9

The Next-Generation BlueSky

  • AirFire, Sonoma Technology, Inc.,
  • and NASA ROSES Grant
    • Facilitate sustained operations.
    • Improve inputs and settings.
    • Enhance user experience and access.
    • Add user-oriented functions.
    • Continue benchmarking performance.

courtesy W. Hao

slide10

BlueSky Framework(new)

  • Revamped code-base
    • (Professional)
  • More models
  • More modular
  • More reliable
  • Eliminate variants
slide11

Expert Users

(e.g. Incident

Command Teams)

SMARTFIRE:

Incorporating satellite fire data

Satellite fire info

(NOAA HMS)

Ground-based

systems

SMARTFIRE

Reconciled fire info

including sub-grid fuels

and plume information

BLUESKY

slide15

BlueSky

OverviewAnimationsNational CoordinationWeatherRelated LinksUser GuideHelp

Welcome, Sean Raffuse My AccountSign Out

Legend

Scenario

Advanced

Query

Data

Current Tool: Zoom In

Overview Map

PST

Advance Hour

Modeled Surface Parameter

Predicted PM2.5 – 12 km

Modeled Wind Parameter

Surface Winds – 12 km

Measured Parameter

PM2.5 – AIRNow

Contact UsPrivacy and SecurityStatistics

Go to Default MapSet as Default MapClear Default Map

slide16

Summary: Coming Soon

This spring:

  • Reconciled satellite data (SMARTFIRE)
  • Initial BlueSky Framework rewrite available
  • Consistent BlueSky predictions across all FCAMMS + consistent RAINS implementation

Later this year:

  • Integrated national 36km CMAQ grid + higher-resolution regional FCAMMS forecasts
  • Revised interface (AIRNowTech? RAINS2?)
  • Partnering with AIRNow

By next year (?):

  • Ability to ‘what-if’ prescribed burns
  • Ensemble forecasts
slide17

The Future?

  • International?

(Satellite fire detects don’t stop at border)

  • Incorporate all fire info sources

(SMARTFIRE?)

  • Run overall grid(e.g. 36km CMAQ, other)
  • Have this feed more regional applications

- all in one [AQ need]

(CMAQ, WRF-CHEM, other)

- smoke management specific (turn fires off/on, etc...)(CALPUFF/HYSPLIT)

user needs
User Needs

2 Distinct Smoke Forecasting Needs

  • for Air Quality

What is going to happen?

would ideally like 1 number (possibly w/uncertainty or probability distribution)

care about all types of pollutants (not just smoke)

  • for Smoke Management

What if? (I do this) (or that) (or that other thing)

would ideally like to know what if? to a large number of management choices

Mostly just care about smoke

These two distinct user groups lead to different (but related) systems

a possible solution

Decisions impacting smoke

A Possible Solution

Overall National Grid

All-in-one (one atmosphere)

Coarser grid

  • CMAQ
  • ~36 km grid
  • 1 run
  • all pollutants
  • EPA
  • NWS
  • 1-4 km grids (finer?)

Regional Grids

Higher resolution

  • Regional AQ
  • CMAQ
  • all pollutants
  • 1 run
  • EPA / NWS / ?
  • Smoke Management
  • many runs
  • smoke only
  • CALPUFF / HYSPLIT
  • USFS / USDOI / ?