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Statistical Analysis of Solar Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences

Statistical Analysis of Solar Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences. By: Seth Sivak. Why We Study Geomagnetic Storms. Blackouts Cell Phone Disruption Global Positioning Satellite Failure Danger to Satellites Danger to Astronauts Possible Danger to Airline Passengers.

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Statistical Analysis of Solar Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences

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  1. Statistical Analysis of Solar Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences By: Seth Sivak

  2. Why We Study Geomagnetic Storms • Blackouts • Cell Phone Disruption • Global Positioning Satellite Failure • Danger to Satellites • Danger to Astronauts • Possible Danger to Airline Passengers

  3. Questions That Needed Answers • Are the maximums definitely at Equinox? • Are March and April the maximums of the year? • Do Geomagnetic Storms occur randomly? • When is the best time to turn on the radar?

  4. Project Overview • Madrigal Database (Millstone Hill) • Kp and F10.7 cm Solar x-ray Flux • 1950-2002 • Year, MDay, DNum, BHM • Data Gaps • F10.7 : 453 missing days (2.38%) • Kp : 2 3-Hour missing elements (.00132%)

  5. Broad View (52 Years) • 11 Year Cycle for F10.7 X-Ray Flux • Double Peaked Kp Cycle • Downslide Peak Always Higher • Correlation Between F10.7 and Kp

  6. Year Breakdown Kp > 6 • Maximum in September • Broad Peak in March and April • Minimum during December and January • Clear double peak on Equinox

  7. Year Breakdown Kp > 8 • Maximum in September • Peak in July • Double Peak at Equinox • Peak in March and April • Minimum in December and January

  8. Vernal Equinox • All Peaks After Equinox • Peak For Kp > 6 is April 4th • Peak For Kp > 7 & Kp > 8 is April 1st • High Peaks Follow in May

  9. Autumnal Equinox • Peak on Equinox • Sept. 22nd High for Kp > 6 and Kp > 7 • Sept. 4th High for Kp > 7 and Kp > 8

  10. July Maximum • July 15th-17th For all Kp • Kp > 8 Almost Equal to Equinox • Has not been explained • Bastille Day Event (July 14th-16th 2000) • Other Dates: • July 8, 1958 • July 15, 17, 1959 • July 16, 1960 • July 13, 14, 1961 • July 6, 1974 • July 13, 14, 1982 • July 13, 1991

  11. Probability Kp > 6 • Probability calculations and why they are important • Histogram maximumwith high F10.7 found in March • Probability maximums found in February, March, May, June, July, August, and September

  12. Probability Kp > 7 • F10.7 > 285 maximums are found in August and September • F10.7 > 260 maximums are found in March, June, July, September and October • F10.7 > 235 maximums are found in March, June, July and September

  13. Probability Kp > 8 • F10.7 > 285maximums found in September • F10.7 > 260 maximums found in March, June, July, September and October • F10.7 > 235 maximums found in March, June, July and September • F10.7 > 210 maximums found in July

  14. Time Series and Monthly Profiles • Maximum in Summer Months • Minimum in Winter Months • Double Peak on Equinox • Probability of storms increase with higher solar flux

  15. BHM Results • Peaks During Night Hours • Minimum at 9 UT for all Kp levels • Regular Kp > 6 and Kp > 7 • Random Kp > 8 • Some Physical Pattern Occurs

  16. Conclusions • Peak in September • Peak in March • Peak in July • Peak During 18:00 UT - 3:00 UT (6 pm - 3 am) • Probability for Large Storms With High F10.7 • Final Overview of All Models and Data

  17. Future Plans • Working till June 21st • More research into the July Maximum (DST and Kp 1932) • Writing Paper and submitting it to the Journal of Undergraduate Research • Web Site : www.haystack.mit.edu/~ssivak/haystack1.html (under construction)

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