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The 2011 Welsh Referendum and Election Studies Richard Wyn Jones & Roger Scully Cardiff, 14 th January 2011. The Studies. The 2011 Welsh Referendum Study (ESRC Grant RES-000-22-4496) The 2011 Welsh Election Study (ESRC Grant RES-062-23-2625). Outline of Today’s Session. Purpose of Today

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The 2011 Welsh Referendum and Election StudiesRichard Wyn Jones & Roger ScullyCardiff, 14th January 2011

the studies
The Studies
  • The 2011 Welsh Referendum Study (ESRC Grant RES-000-22-4496)
  • The 2011 Welsh Election Study (ESRC Grant RES-062-23-2625)
outline of today s session
Outline of Today’s Session
  • Purpose of Today
  • Aims of the Studies
  • Method, Research Design & Timetable
  • Content of the Surveys
  • Discussion
purpose of today
Purpose of Today
  • Raising Profile and Impact of the Studies
  • Draw on Expertise to Improve the Studies
  • Maximise value of the Studies for the research community
purpose of the studies wrs
Purpose of the Studies: WRS
  • Understanding Referendum Voting Behaviour: Why vote? Why vote Yes / No?

- Impact of Party Cues

- National Identities & Sentiments

- Performance Politics

  • Impact of the campaign on the referendum outcome
  • Broader contributions to design/conduct of referendum studies?
  • Good value and high impact study
purpose of the studies wes
Purpose of the Studies: WES
  • Understanding Devolved Election Voting Behaviour:

- Electoral participation

- Vote Choice

- Theories of Voting: Valence & the Three-Wales Model

  • Impact of devolved election campaigns
  • Public attitudes to devolution:

- Structure and consistency of public preferences

- Performance assessments and relationship to fundamental attitudes

- Effect of attitudes to devolution on devolved election voting behaviour

  • Value, impact, and continuity with previous studies
method research design
Method & Research Design

WRS & WES deploy similar methods & designs:

- Sample of voters (fieldwork: YouGov)

- Pre and Post waves, with panel data

- Pre: sample of c.2000; drawn on ‘rolling’ basis through 30 days prior to referendum / election (ie. c.500 per week)

- Post: after referendum / election, all ‘Pre’ wave respondents approached; ‘top-up’ element to raise overall Post sample to 2000

timetable wrs
Timetable: WRS

January Consultation event in Cardiff on survey content

End-Jan Finalisation, pre- & post-referendum questionnaires; WRS/WES Website

Feb – 2nd March Pre-referendum wave fieldwork (30 days)

3rd March REFERENDUM HELD

March Post-referendum wave fieldwork

June Cardiff Seminar on Findings

July London Seminar; Data placed on website

September Deposit of final datasets with UK Data Archive

timetable wes
Timetable: WES

January Consultation event in Cardiff on survey content

March Finalisation, pre- & post-election questionnaires

April – 4th May Pre-election wave fieldwork (30 days)

5th May ELECTION HELD

May Post-election wave fieldwork

September Cardiff Seminar on Findings; Data placed on website & deposited with UK Data Archive

October London Seminar

the surveys 1
The Surveys, 1
  • Drafts in place for Pre waves for WRS and (almost) WES
  • Many, but far from all, Pre questions also to be asked in Post waves. Post waves to have room for additional questions / subjects
  • Likely additional subjects for Post waves:
  • Experience of voting in the referendum / election
  • Attitudes to the process of voting
  • The AV referendum
the surveys 2 wrs pre wave draft
The Surveys, 2: WRS Pre Wave (Draft)

Sections of Survey:

  • Media consumption & interest in politics
  • Referendum Voting: likelihood to vote & vote intention
  • Campaign perceptions
  • Perceptions of referendum vote implications
  • Political issues & govt performance
  • Attitudes to parties & leaders
  • Attitudes to devolution
  • Respondents: Identities & national sentiments, NAW voting intention, past vote recall
  • Political knowledge quiz
the surveys 3 wes pre wave draft
The Surveys, 3: WES Pre Wave (Draft)

Sections of Survey:

  • Media consumption & interest in politics
  • Voting in the NAW election: likelihood to vote, vote intention, past vote recall
  • Campaign perceptions
  • Political issues & govt performance
  • Attitudes to parties & leaders
  • Attitudes to devolution
  • Respondents: Identities & national sentiments
  • Political knowledge quiz
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