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James TURNER. IUFRO Division 5 Conference 5.10.00 Forest Products Marketing & Business Management. Growing Wood Product Exports via Market Access: New Zealand Exports to USA, Japan and China . James Turner, Frances Maplesden, Susan Bates and Andres Katz.

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james turner

James TURNER

IUFRO Division 5 Conference

5.10.00 Forest Products Marketing & Business Management

growing wood product exports via market access new zealand exports to usa japan and china

Growing Wood Product Exports via Market Access: New Zealand Exports to USA, Japan and China

James Turner, Frances Maplesden, Susan Bates and Andres Katz

Scion, Trade and Economic Development Group, 49 Sala St, Rotorua, New Zealand

aim of work
Aim of Work

To understand potential changes in New Zealand’s value-added export market environment, the technical barriers and opportunities likely to arise, and the responses required to enable export growth

overview
Overview
  • Background – Why?
  • Methods – How?
  • Results – What?
  • Conclusions – So what?
opportunity
Opportunity
  • Adding value & jobs – timber to carpentry
adding value
Adding value

New Zealand primary and secondary wood product exports

opportunity1
Opportunity
  • Adding value & jobs – timber to carpentry
  • Growing opportunity
growing opportunity
Growing Opportunity

Global primary and secondary wood product trade

opportunity2
Opportunity
  • Adding value & jobs – timber to carpentry
  • Growing opportunity
  • Product differentiation
      • Unrivalled brand, quality, service
threat
Threat
  • Trade barriers
      • Tariffs – tariff escalation
threat1
Threat
  • Trade barriers
      • Tariffs – tariff escalation
      • Trade disputes – China bedroom furniture
      • Non-tariff trade barriers
non tariff barriers definition
Non-tariff Barriers - Definition

Government laws, regulations, policies and/ or practices which either protect domestically produced products from the full weight of foreign competition or which artificially stimulate exports of particular domestic products

trade barriers examples
Trade Barriers - Examples
  • Social & political
      • Processing subsidies
      • Quantity controls
  • Health & safety
      • Phytosanitary regulations
      • Restrictive testing and inspection
  • Environmental
      • Harvest restrictions
      • Certification
research questions
Research Questions
  • Are NTBs a significant barrier to New Zealand value-added exports?
  • What strategies can be used to overcome these barriers?
value added markets
Value-added Markets
  • Builder’s carpentry & joinery
      • Wooden doors
  • Mouldings & millwork
  • Wooden furniture
  • Prefabricated buildings
  • China
  • Japan
  • United States
methods1
Methods

Exporter Survey

STEEP

Future barriers

Current barriers Costs

Economic Impact Assessment

Important barriers

Strategies

exporter survey
Exporter Survey
  • 13 one-on-one interviews
      • prefabricated houses
      • wooden doors
  • Why not exporting?
  • Factors affecting export growth
steep analysis
STEEP Analysis
  • Social, technological, economic, environmental, political
  • Trends
      • predetermined
      • uncertainties
  • Expert workshops
steep analysis1
STEEP Analysis
  • Determine future non-tariff barrier trends

by

      • Identifying important trends and drivers
      • Assessing implications for trade barriers
economic impact assessment
Economic Impact Assessment
  • Global Forest Products Model
  • Non-tariff measures
      • Subsidies – export & production
      • Shipping costs
      • Manufacturing costs
  • SPWP – imports & exports
global forest products model
Global Forest Products Model
  • Forecasts
      • Prices
      • Demand
      • Supply
      • Trade
  • Competitive equilibrium
  • 18 wood products
  • 180 countries linked by trade
results1
Results

Exporter Survey

STEEP

Future barriers

Current barriers Costs

Economic Impact Assessment

Important barriers

Strategies

survey prefab houses
Survey – Prefab Houses
  • Japan – engineering certificates
  • China – lack of IP protection

– lack of acceptance

– treatment of radiata

  • USA – open & transparent
  • Management time costly
      • > $1 million over 5 years
      • small firm size
      • market development
survey doors
Survey – Doors
  • Japan – no significant barriers
  • USA – fire rating requirements
  • Lack of scale
  • Market development
results2
Results

STEEP

Exporter Survey

Future barriers

Current barriers Costs

Economic Impact Assessment

Important barriers

Strategies

steep analysis2
STEEP Analysis

China:

  • Environmental degradation

 regulations - recycling, energy, air quality

  • Water - reliance on imported land-intensive products

 fewer barriers for forestry products

  • IP protection might be tightened
  • Biggest challenge - impending labour shortage

reduced protection

  • New Zealand has comfortable relationship with China

easier to negotiate trade deals

steep analysis3
STEEP Analysis

USA:

  • Democrats likely to be more protectionist

less likelihood of trade agreement with NZ

  • US lobby groups

countervailing duties - bedroom furniture

results3
Results

Exporter Survey

STEEP

Future barriers

Current barriers Costs

Economic Impact Assessment

Important barriers

Strategies

economic impact1
Economic Impact
  • Modest impact of current NTBs on value-added products
      • small proportion of total exports
      • small part of production costs
  • Combining market development and market access beneficial
conclusions1
Conclusions
  • Are NTBs significant barrier? NO and YES
      • value-added exports small
      • combined with market development barriers are significant
  • What strategies?
      • clear market development strategy