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SemiWEEK: Geopolitics of Semiconductor Equipment

Semiconductor sales stalled last week and dove back to 2019 levels as the WAHE restructuring demand sputtered. This was way out of character for the 1st week of June.

VLSI
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SemiWEEK: Geopolitics of Semiconductor Equipment

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  1. Semiconductor WEEK: June 12, 2020An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI Customer Satisfaction Survey White Paper: Advantest number 1 global ATE supplier Chip History Center People: Scott Kulicke, discusses the challenges going forward in semiconductor packaging and assembly Time Line: February 21, 1987 - TSMC Founded, the founding of TSMC on February 21, 1987 marks an earthquake that would move the tectonic plates that formed the global structure of the semiconductor industry. The Chip Insider Equipment & Emerging Markets: Geopolitics of Semiconductor Equipment Semiconductor Stocks • Semiconductor Stock Index plunged 5.2% • Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index plunged 4.8% • EDA Stock Index decreased 2% • Electronics Materials Stock Index fell 4.4% • Hottest Stocks: TSMC, AMD, Tokyo Ohka, SOITEC, Silicon Laboratories, and NVIDIA Chip Market Research Services Cautiously moving forward • Order activity for semiconductor equipment continued to move higher, jumping past 75 degrees • IC Inventory Levels Semiconductor Analytics Semi Market results from last week: Semiconductor sales stalled last week and dove back to 2019 levels Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19 2Q20 slid to +19% • Semiconductor Weather1 Report: Temperate, Cooler • IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Tight • Electronics Price Trend: Soaring Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28 WAHE Spring: Mar 25 WAHE Sputters: Jun 5

  2. Number 1 Global ATE Supplier VLSIresearch Customer Satisfaction Survey 2020 Click for White Paper

  3. Advantest Awarded RANKED 1st 10 BEST Supplier • Advantest earns RANKED 1st in the: • 2020 10 BEST Large Chip Making Equipment Suppliers • highest record score of 10 BEST Large Chip Making Equipment Suppliers with an excellent 9.50 • among the elite few to be honored as a 10 BEST supplier since the survey’s launch 32 years ago • THE BEST Test Equipment Supplier of 2020 • Awarded 5 VLSI Stars fromcustomers for thefourth consecutive year • No. 1 global Automatic Test Equipment (ATE) supplier, with expansive customer base spanning the world’s key semiconductor regions Click for White Paper

  4. How Customers Perceive Advantest • Earns highest score of all 10 BEST Large Chip Making Equipment Suppliers in 8 rating categories • Improves ratings in all rating categories • recommend supplier and field engineering support by 40 basis points • commitment, trust in supplier, application support, support after sales, product performance, quality of results,and overall value by 30 basis points • Highest scores* • recommend supplier • technical leadership • commitment • trust in supplier • partnering • product performance • quality of results *Listed in order of rating Click for White Paper

  5. VLSIresearchhas moved!We look forward to seeing you at our new office. Our new address is: 2025 Gateway Place, Suite 370 San Jose, CA 95110 Phone/email/web contact information remains the same: Phone: 1.408.453.8844 Web: www.vlsiresearch.com Email: clientservices@vlsiresearch.com

  6. The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File • Order activity for semiconductor equipment continued to move higher, jumping past 75 degrees • The rate of increase slowed from the previous week amid shifting sentiment within segments • SOC Mobile cooled off by a couple of points due to growing uncertainties from the new U.S. sanctions on Huawei • However, Memory offset the weakness in Mobile, jumping by more than two points on the back of improving market fundamentals • Subcon/Adv. Packaging continued to surge, recorded the biggest gain among segments, and hit a fresh new high for the year • VLSI’s Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) is pulling out of the dive This issue contains the latest forecast. Call us to access more details May 2020 Cautiously moving forward

  7. The Chip Insider® Graphics IC Inventory Levels: • Electronics OEM inventories are trending higher IC Inventory Levels: chart gives rolling averages for semiconductor integrated circuit inventories held at OEMs, in Die Banks, and the total Inventory-to-Billing Ratio

  8. Semiconductor Analytics Last Week in the Semiconductor Market: Semiconductor sales stalled last week and dove back to 2019 levels as the WAHE restructuring demand sputtered. This was way out of character for the 1st week of June. Climate change sent temperatures down and brought clouds and fog. Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q192Q20 slid to +19% Semiconductor Weather1 Report: 73˚ F Temperate, Cooler IC Supply-Demand2 Metrics: Tight Electronics Pricing Trend: Soaring • W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year Thank you for supporting us through this last issue of 2018. Semiconductor Analytics will return January . Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28 WAHE Spring: Mar 25 WAHE Sputters: Jun 5 • 1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power

  9. 2020 Semiconductor Market Drivers Coronavirus drove Integrated Circuit sales towards recession and WAHE is pulling it out: • Certainties: • Coronavirus Pandemic infected economies • Unparalleled Supply and Demand shocks to IC sales of <10% and units of ~20% • Governments defibrillating economy • Macroeconomic ‘V’acuum or ‘U’ – not ‘L’ • World’s Economy saved by Semiconductors • WAHE (Work-At-Home Economy) • 7/10nm and 5/7nm demand ramps • Uncertainties: • U.S.-China Trade War • 2020 Elections in U.S.

  10. The Chip Insider®Equipment & Emerging Markets Geopolitics of Semiconductor Equipment • US Government Restrictions • Three Objectives • Increased Visibility for Technology Exports • Military End-Use Rule • Foreign Direct Product Rule • VLSI’s View

  11. US Government RestrictionsOn Semiconductor Equipment Export to China Background: • U.S. Government has been on a mission to limit China’s access to advanced technologies • The objective is to stop advances in semiconductor technology within Chinese companies and organizations • U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) now has deep understanding of supply chains across the semiconductor landscape • Semiconductor Equipment and EDA tools are the choke point to limit China’s access to technology • Multi-year effort is culminating into current rules proposals for export controls • This activity has bi-partisan support and is not limited to current administration Source: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead: President Donald J. Trump joins Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China, at their bilateral meeting Saturday, June 29, 2019, at the G20 Japan Summit in Osaka, Japan.

  12. semiStockWEEK:VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices and the market fell after three consecutive weeks of gainsSemiconductors -5%, Equipment -5%, EDA -2%, Electronic Materials -4%.

  13. Semiconductor Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index plunged 5.2% despite claiming four of the top six stocks. IDM -7.7% Foundry & OSAT -3.0% Fabless & Fablite -5.0% AMD AMD Analog Devices ADI AmkorAMKR ASE ASX Broadcom AVGO IBMIBM Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTC JCET600584.SSKingpak Technology6238.TWO Micron Technology MU On Semiconductor ON Panasonic PC MagnaChip Semiconductor MX Maxim MXIM MaxLinear MXL MediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA NVDAQualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics 005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLAB Skyworks SWKS SMIC SMI STMicroelectronics STM Texas Instruments TXN TSMC TSM UMC UMC Western Digital WDC Xilinx XLNX

  14. Chip Equipment & Related Stocks:Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index plunged 4.8%, BESI performed the best this week. WFE -5.7% Test -4.9% Assembly -3.1% Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATEYY ASM International ASMI ASM Lithography ASML ASM Pacific 0522.HK BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK FormFactorFORM KLA KLAC Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX Onto Innovation ONTO Nikon 7731 Teradyne TER Tokyo Electron Limited 8035 Veeco VECO

  15. Electronic Materials Stocks:Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s EDA Stock Index decreased 2%. VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index fell 4.4%, Tokyo Ohka came out on top. BASF BASFY Cabot Microelectronics CCMPCadence CNDS DNP 7912 DuPont DD JSR 4185 Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC SOI.PA Synopsys SNPS Tokyo Ohka 4186

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