Winter Experience 05/06 and Outlook 06/07 Andrew Ryan Scope Winter 2005/06 Experience Weather Demand Plant Availability Supply Build-up Distillate use Winter 2006/07 Outlook Plant Margin BMRS Demand BMRS Plant Availability Winter Outlook 06/07 Timetable
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Covering the three months Dec 2005-Feb 2006, the map below shows temperature anomalies across Europe. The colours clearly show the extent of the colder conditions across large parts of western Europe – a pattern consistent with the original Met Office winter forecast. Source: UK Met Office
During mild winters, there tends to be a high frequency of south-westerly winds, bringing relatively warm air to all parts of the UK. The signal for this year, even as far back as last summer, was for a 'blocked' pattern of weather to predominate over Europe, with a higher frequency of easterly winds for the UK. This has certainly been the case, but the extreme cold that has been affecting central Europe has really only influenced the temperature across the south of the country. Scotland and Northern Ireland had, until recently, escaped.
Source: UK Met Office
Source UK Met Office. Winter is defined as 01/12/05 - 28/02/06
The forecast gave indications the winter would be drier than normal. The precipitation amounts for the winter period (1 Dec- 28 Feb) reflect this, with the UK receiving 196.7 mm, more than 40% less than the long-term average. Source: UK Met Office
Note: Demand includes Station Load and Exports
The above data was used by National Grid to calculate the Triad for 2005/6 in accordance with the
Statement of Use of System Charging Methodology (see chapter 4)
It is based on the latest settlement data available when the triad was calculated in March 2005
(as illustrated by the run type SF - Settlement Final, R1 - Reconciliation 1 and R2 - Reconciliation 2).