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2008 Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State Universi PowerPoint Presentation
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2008 Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Lexington Insurance Company Hurricane Outlook Symposium So easy a caveman could do it. Introduction

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

2008 Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast

Phil Klotzbach

Department of Atmospheric Science

Colorado State University

Lexington Insurance Company

Hurricane Outlook Symposium

slide3

Introduction

The globe’s atmosphere and oceans function as one unit. Current circulation features have considerable precursor information regarding the coming season’s amount of hurricane activity.

slide5

OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION

LATENT HEAT FLUX

SENSIBLE HEAT AND POTENTIAL ENERGY FLUX

ABSORBED SOLAR RADIATION

NET ENERGY BALANCE

SUBSURFACE HEAT STORAGE

THERMAL INERTIA

OCEAN HEAT FLUX

TEMPERATURE

Flow diagram for climate modeling, showing feedback loops. From Robock (1985).

slide6

2008

Hurricane

Forecast

slide8

Hurricane

Bertha

slide9

Hurricane Bertha Trivia

  • Storm Formation - 13.3°N, 24.7°W – furthest east a storm has formed in the Main Development Region prior to 1 August
  • Sixth year since 1950 with a hurricane in the MDR prior to 1 August – other five years were 1954, 1960, 1961, 1996 and 2005
slide10

New June Forecast Predictors

1`

April-May SST & May SLP

EQ.

2`

`

April-May 200

MB U

slide11

Hindcast vs. Observed NTC - 1 June - Rank Prediction Method

300

Observed

Hindcast

250

2

200

R

= 0.66

150

100

50

0

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

slide12

SSTA

SLPA

925 MB U

200 MB U

slide13

25 Hurricane Landfalls

Top 15

1 June NTC Hindcasts – Florida Peninsula + East Coast Hurricane Landfalls

9 Hurricane Landfalls

Bottom 15

1 June NTC Hindcasts – Florida Peninsula + East Coast Hurricane Landfalls

slide14

9 Major Hurricane Landfalls

Top 15

June NTC Hindcasts – Florida Peninsula + East Coast Major Hurricane Landfalls

1 Major Hurricane Landfall

Bottom 15

June NTC Hindcasts – Florida Peninsula + East Coast Major Hurricane Landfalls

slide17

2008

Forecast Schedule

Summary

To

Date

Summary

To

Date

slide19

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS FOR 2008

  • Entire U.S. coastline – 69% (average for last century is 52%)
  • 2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida - 45%(average for last century is 31%)
  • 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)
  • 4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
new landfalling hurricane web application

New Landfalling Hurricane Web Application

Currently Available at the following URL:

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane

In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory – Bridgewater State College, Bridgewater MA

slide22

REGION 2 - TEXAS & LOUISIANA

H

A

J

L

C

O

J

C

V

C

(b)

(c)

(a)

future work
Future Work
  • State Probabilities
  • User-Selected Probabilities (Daily, Weekly Periods)
slide26
Arago’s Admonition:

“Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest scientific men who have regard for their reputations venture to predict the weather.”

slide27

Alfred E. Neuman

Me

Worry-

WHY?