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The Sky’s the Limit An overview of prospects for aircraft emissions and strategies for their control Mark Barrett February 2007. Outline. Aviation system and environmental impacts International overview Demand Emission control options Base scenario and global warming
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The global studies this lecture is based on are 10-15 years old, but the picture is unchanged except we have ‘advanced’ 15 years further along the high growth aviation scenario.
More recent energy scenarios for Europe confirm the importance of aviation as compared to other sectors.
Reports and other material on aviation may be found at:
(2 to 4 to 15%?)
UK air freight composition
Business as usual aviation is incompatible with climate stabilisation
International transport (aviation and shipping) subject to international treaties and multilateral negotiations. The problematic results of these are:
Operator response = change in cost . proportionate response
o Aviation system complex; modelling simple
o Base scenario: demand increases 600% and fuel use by 400% in 40 years
o Fuel charges reduce fuel consumption and related pollutants by 3 to 20%
o Operator response may make an important contribution to emission control
o Fuel charges may have a significant effect, but will not prevent large increases in pollution emission
oModel should be refined, especially demand and operator response aspects
oOther charges should be explored
oThe framework for charging and emission allocation needs clarifying
emission quota of about 0.4 tC/person/year for all activities which is
one return flight between UK and USA each year, or between UK and Spain including high altitude effects.
Heathrow Terminal 5
Main local environmental impacts
Interaction between global and local
Aircraft have to land somewhere
Currently most duties and powers are at domestic/local level
Allocation of emissions from international flights
Global technical standards for all pollutants
Market regulation: liberalisation, deregulation
Route negotiation and airport slot allocation
Allow scope for appropriate fiscal measures
Development of long distance transport infrastructure
‘Local’ leisure markets