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Towards a more peaceful world? Trends in armed conflict. Lecture at HEI, 22 March 2007 Course E 584 Topics in Peace Research Nils Petter Gleditsch Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW), International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) & Department of Sociology & Political Science
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Lecture at HEI, 22 March 2007Course E 584 Topics in Peace Research
Nils Petter Gleditsch
Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW),
International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO)
& Department of Sociology & Political Science
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)
Norman Angell (1910): The Great Illusion
Gaddis (1987): The Long Peace
Mueller (1989): The Obsolescence of War
Mueller (2006): The Waning of War
No wars between developed countries during the Cold War
Remarkably few major international wars of any kind since World War II
The only traditional interstate war since 1975: Iran-Iraq
No major war between Israel and its neighbors since 1973
The remnants of war are largely crime
Wallensteen (2006): Too early to tell
Prussian War is declining (the two World Wars were atypical)
No war between two Security Council members since the Korean War (1950– 53)
- and there were many proxy wars during the Cold War
War is waning between industrialized countries
- but industrialized countries are not lower in war participation
There are many regional wars (Middle East, Central Africa in the 1990s)
Many wars still have a global impact
When will we have peace between major powers: when we have cooperative and universalistic relations between major powers
Mearsheimer (1990): Back to the future
Huntington (1993): Clash of Civilizations
Gurr (1994): Surge of Ethnopolitical Conflict
- but also Gurr (2000), Ethnic warfare on the wane
Rice (1993): Wars of the third kind
Kaldor (1999): New wars
Marshall (1999): The Third World War
Sarkees, Wayman & Singer (2003): A Disturbing constancy of war
- different types of war peak at different times and must be examined together
- war shifts between regions (proxy wars)
Number of wars
Number of battle deaths
Number of countries in war
Number of countries at war
Area affected by war
A longer time perspective
A very much longer time perspective
If war is waning – why?
Countries with conflict on their territory in 2005 (dark brown color), countries with conflict on their territory after the end of the Cold War (light brown color), and the geographical centre of the conflict (red circle). Source: Halvard Buhaug, on the basis of the Uppsala/PRIO conflict data, see www.prio.no/cscw/armedconflict.
Source: Harbom, Högbladh & Wallensteen (2006). For the data, see www.prio.no/cscw/armedconflict.
For the data, see Harbom, Högbladh & Wallensteen (2006) and www.prio.no/cscw/armedconflict. In this figure, the number of conflicts is normalized by the number of independent countries. Figure created by Lars Wilhelmsen.
Only conflicts with more than 1000 battle deaths in a single year. See Harbom, Högbladh & Wallensteen (2006) and www.prio.no/cscw/armedconflict. In this figure, too, the number of wars is normalized by the number of independent countries. Figure created by Lars Wilhelmsen.
Data for the number of battle deaths (civilian and military) from the COW Project (1900–45) and from our own data (1946–2005) at www.prio.no/cscw/cross/battledeaths, cf. Lacina, Gleditsch & Russett (2006). The number of battle deaths have been divided by the world population in all independent countries for that year, based on data in Gleditsch & Ward (2006).
Figure created by Lars Wilhelmsen. Data for the number of battle deaths (civilian and military) are from www.prio.no/cscw/cross/battledeaths, cf. Lacina & Gleditsch (2005). The number of battle deaths has been divided by the world population in all independent countries for that year, based on population data in Gleditsch & Ward (2006).
Figure created by Lars Wilhelmsen. The data for the number of battle deaths (civilian and military) are from the same sources as the previous slide but the Lacina figures for Iraqi battle deaths have been replaced by the median estimate of a (somewhat controversial) article in The Lancet (Burnham et al., 2006).
Kilde: Human Security Report.
The figures refer to the number of cases with serious human rights violations in a given year. The figure has been copied from Mack (2007) based on data from Harff (2003), updated to 2005. Please do not reproduce, since Mack (2007) is still in press. An earlier figure (to 2001) is available in Mack (2005).
Source: Eck & Hultman (2007). The figure for ’government’ in 1994 is 530,399 and is way above the ceiling for the figure.
The data are from Rummel (1994), updated on his website http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/.
Genocide: among other things, the killing of people by a government because of their indelible group membership (race, ethnicity, religion, language).
Politicide: the murder of any person or people by a government because of their politics or for political purposes.
Mass Murder: the indiscriminate killing of any person or people by a government.
Democide: The murder of any person or people by a government, including genocide, politicide, and mass murder.
Source: Rummel (1997): Table 23.1, http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/SOD.FIG23.1.GIF. Some of the democide estimates have subsequently been revised upwards. Including them might make the curve peak in a later year around the ‘Great Leap Forward’ in China, 1958–61), but would probably not affect the inverted U-shape. (This figure was added to the ppt presentation after the lecture.)
* Eritrea rebellion not included. Source: Lacina & Gleditsch (2005)
Source: Mack (2005), based on data from the US Department of State
Source: Mack (2005), based on data from the US Department of State
Source: Bonn International Center for Conversion, www.bicc.de
Figure created by Lars Wilhelmsen on the basis of www.prio.no/cscw/armedconflict .
Figure created by Lars Wilhelmsen on the basis of www.prio.no/cscw/armedconflict. Number of conflict participants for all conflicts divided by the number of on-going conflicts.
Figure created by Halvard Buhaug, based on the conflict locations reported by Buhaug & Gates (2002).
Computed by Lars Wilhelmsen, based on the circular conflict zones reported by Buhaug & Gates (2002).
The frequency of great-power wars graphed by quarter centuries. From Levy, Walker & Edwards (2001), Figure 2 (20).
- against the myth of ‘the peaceful savage’
Scale: 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2
Annual war deaths as % of population. Source: Keeley (1996: 89, Figure 6.1)
Source: Keeley (1996), ch. 6.
Source for democracy: Marshall & Jaggers (2003), for trade/GDP: Gleditsch (2002), for IGOs: Pevehouse, Nordstrom & Warnke (2004)
- but Luttwak: Give war a chance
Source: Mack (2007: 3)
Change occurs at 1989
- number of conflicts
- conflict zone
- battle deaths
- great-power war
- more countries assuming regional power role
- hegemon is commanding more countries into war
- international norms pursued by more countries
- peacekeeping wars
1990–91 (28 countries vs. 1)
USA, Canada, Honduras, Argentina, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, France, Spain, Portugal, Czechoslovakia, Italy, Greece, Norway, Denmark, Senegal, Niger, Morocco, Kuwait, Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Australia
2003– (35 countries vs. 1, 13 old + 23 new)
USA, Dominican Republic, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, UK, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Italy, Albania, Macedonia,Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Moldova, Rumania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Norway, Denmark, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea, Japan, Philippines, Australia + Tonga
Angell, Normann, 1910. The Great Illusion: A Study of the Relation of Military Power in Nations to Their Economic and Social Advantage. London: Heinemann. Reissued in a new edition, same publisher, 1934. [Shorter version published 1909 as Europe’s Optical Illusion]
Buhaug, Halvard & Scott Gates, 2002. ‘The Geography of Civil War’, Journal of Peace Research 39(4): 417–433.
Burnham, Gilbert; Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy & Les Roberts, 2006. ’Mortality after the 2003 Invasion of Iraq: A Cross-sectional Cluster Sample Survey’, Lancet 368(9545): 1421–1428.
Eck, Kristine & Lisa Hultman, 2007. ’One-Sided Violence against Civilians in War: Insights from New Fatality Data’, Journal of Peace Research 44(2),
Gaddis, John Lewis, 1987. The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War. New York: Oxford University Press.
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede, 2002. ’Expanded Trade and GDP Data’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(5): 712–724
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Michael D. Ward, 2006. 'The Diffusion of Democracy and the International Context of Democratization', International Organization 60(4): 911–933
Gurr, Ted Robert, 1994. ‘Peoples against States – Ethnopolitical Conflict and the Changing World-System’, International Studies Quarterly 38(3):
Gurr, Ted Robert, 1994. ‘Ethnic Warfare on the Wane’, Foreign Affairs 79(3): 52–64
Harff, Barbara, 2003. ‘No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risk of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since 1955’, American Political Science Review 97(1): 57–73
Harbom, Lotta; Stina Högbladh & Peter Wallensteen, 2006. 'Armed Conflict and Peace Agreements', Journal of Peace Research 43(5): 617–631.
Hewitt, Joe; Jon Wilkenfeld & Ted Gurr, eds, 2007. Peace and Conflict 2007. Boulder, CO: Paradigm, in press
Huntingon, Samuel P., 1993. ‘The Clash of Civilizations’, Foreign Affairs 72(3): 22–49
Kaldor, Mary, 1999. New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press
Keeley, Lawrence H., 1996. War before Civilization. New York: Oxford University Press
Lacina, Bethany & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2005: 'Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths', European Journal of Population21(2–3): 145–166.
Lacina, Bethany; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Bruce Russett, 2006. 'The Declining Risk of Death in Battle', International Studies Quarterly 50(3): 673–680
LeBlanc, Steven A., with Katherine E. Register, 2003. Constant Battles: The Myth of the Peaceful, Noble Savage. New York: St. Martin’s.
Levy, Jack S; Thomas C. Walker & Martin S. Edwards, 2001. ’Continuity and Change in the Evolution of Warfare’, in Zeev Maoz & Azar Gat, eds, War
in a Changing World. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press (15–48)
Luttwak, Edward, 1999. ‘Give War a Chance’, Foreign Affairs 78(4): 36–44
Mack, Andrew, ed., 2005. Human Security Report 2005. War and Peace in the 21st Century. New York: Oxford University Press, for Human Security Centre, University of British Columbia, www.humansecurityreport.org.
Mack, Andrew, ed., 2005. Human Security Brief 2006. New York: Oxford University Press, for Human Security Centre, University of British Columbia, www.humansecurityreport.org.
Mack, Andrew, 2007. Global Political Violence: Explaining the Post-Cold War Decline. Coping with Crisis. Working Paper Series. New York:
International Peace Academy, in press
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Maoz & Gat, eds (143–182)
Maoz, Zeev & Azar Gat, eds, War in a Changing World. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.
Marshall, Monty G., 1999. Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield
Marshall, Monty G. & Keith Jaggers, 2003. Polity IV Project.http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/polity/.
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Mueller, John, 2006. ‘Accounting for the Waning of Major War’, ch. 2 in Väyrynen, ed. (64–79)
Pevehouse, J., T. Nordstrom and K. Warnke, 2004. Intergovernmental Organizations, 1815-2000: A New Correlates of War Data Set.
Pinker. Steven, 2007. ’We’re Getting Nicer Every Day’, New Republic, 19 March
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Distribution over Time’, International Studies Quarterly 47(1): 49–70
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