The Doha Trade Round and Mozambique. Channing Arndt, Purdue University Ministry of Planning and Development, Mozambique. Outline. Background information Macroeconomic results from country CGE model linked to GTAP model of global trade.
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Channing Arndt, Purdue University
Ministry of Planning and Development, Mozambique
“Poorest country in the world” at the cessation of hostilities in 1992.
50=100 – 50 (initial equilibrium)
60=110 – 50 (proportional magnification)
100=50+50 (initial equilibrium)
105=55+50 (proportional dampening)
1The figures in the above Table are drawn from production and import information for 144 sectors representing all commodities. The intent is to discover which productive sectors compete intensively with imports and which are specialized meaning that either commodity supply comes 90% from domestic production or 90% from imports.
NB:Due to tariff binding overhand, Mozambican tariff cuts in the Doha scenarios are essentially zero.
Note: For home produced/consumed commodities, the first order welfare impact of price changes is zero.
NB: Full trade liberalization is not a sufficient condition for growth.