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How East Asians View Democracy. East Asia Barometer A Comparative Survey of Democratization and Value Change, 2001-2003. First systematic comparative survey of attitudes and values toward politics, governance, democracy and reform, and citizens’ political actions in East Asia

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slide2

East Asia BarometerA Comparative Survey of Democratization and Value Change, 2001-2003

  • First systematic comparative survey of attitudes and values toward politics, governance, democracy and reform, and citizens’ political actions in East Asia
  • Standardized survey instruments designed around a common research framework
  • Federated country-team structure, coordinated by Yun-han Chu, National Taiwan University, with international steering committee
  • Funded by Taiwan Ministry of Education, Henry Luce Foundation, World Bank, foundations in some of the countries, and other sources
  • Allows for nested comparisons: three Chinese societies, five “Confucian” societies, developed/developing, democratic/non-democratic; within-society educational, gender, occupational, ethnic, religious, and other groups
  • Later changed its name to Asian Barometer Surveys. Web address: www.asianbarometer.org
slide6

Regime Support and Democratic Support in Asia

(% of total sample expressing support)

Notes:

  Source: 2006 Asian Barometer Surveys, preliminary 7-nation dataset as of July 2007

"Rejects authoritarian alternatives"=respondent rejects at least half of the authoritarian alternatives on which s/he expresses an opinion, out of a possible total of three; "Commitment to democracy"=combined measure of five positive attitudes toward democracy; "Trusts government institutions"=summed trust scores for five government institutions is more positive than negative.

Bold (red) numbers are at or above the average for that row, nonbold (green) numbers below the average

slide7

Table 1.3 Meaning of Democracy

(% of total sample mentioning this meaning)

slide11

Democratic Values in East Asia

(% giving pro-democratic answer)

slide13

Difference in Perceived Performance of Current and PastRegimes

(% perceiving improvement minus percent perceiving worsening)

slide14
Table 10.3 Impact of Regime Policy Performance on Support for Democracy(Standardized regression coefficient)
slide15

Traditional Values in East Asia

(% agree or strongly agree)

slide20
We should get rid of parliament and elections and have a strong leader decide things(% Strongly or somewhat disagree)
q43 on the whole how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election
Q43. On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national election?
q45 47 access to public services
Q45-47. Access to Public Services

Easy

Difficult

Easy

Difficult

Easy

Difficult

Easy

Difficult

Easy

Difficult

Easy

Difficult

Easy

Difficult

Easy

Difficult

slide32

Policy implications

  • Don’t walk away after democratic transition, but invest in the consolidation of new democracies at risk.
  • Consolidation is not only about elections and civil society, but even more about rule of law, accountability, and governance – the “quality of democracy.”
  • Promoting the “d” word is less valuable than promoting deeper democratic values.
  • Longterm modernization promotes democratic values, but slowly and unevenly.
  • The modernization process that most changes values is education.
  • Take authoritarian governments at their word in their democratic claims, and work with the public’s rising expectations for democracy.
institutionalizing african democracy formal or informal michael bratton michigan state university

Institutionalizing African Democracy:Formal or Informal?Michael Bratton, Michigan State University

slide34

Research Questions

What are the trends over time in popular support for democracy?

Is nostalgia for authoritarian rule growing or shrinking?

Over time, are Africans becoming more or less satisfied with the quality of democracy delivered by their leaders?

How much democracy do they think they have?

How do they arrive at their attitudes to democracy? With reference to formal or informal institutions? Which is more important?

If informal institutions remain important to African politics, do they help or harm democracy?

slide35

The Afrobarometer

A comparative series of public attitude surveys on democracy, markets and civil society.

Run by Idasa (South Africa), CDD (Ghana) and MSU, plus national partners. Based on:

* national probability samples (1200-3600) representing all adult citizens

* margin of sampling error of +/- 3% at 95 % confidence

* face-to-face interviews by trained interviewers in language of choice

* response rates averaging above 80%

* standard questionnaire with identical or functionally equivalent items

Data

Comparisons of observed values across countries, and over time, between:

* Afrobarometer Round 1 (12 countries), 1999-2001 (21,000+ cases)

* Afrobarometer Round 2 (15 countries), 2002-2003 (23,000+ cases)

* Afrobarometer Round 3 (18 countries), 2005-2006 (25,000+ cases)

slide37

“Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion?

  • Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government;
  • In some circumstances a non-democratic government can be preferable;
  • For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what form of government we have”
slide38

“There are many ways to govern a country.

Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternative:

The army comes in to govern the country?”

slide39

“There are many ways to govern a country.

Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternative:

Only one political party is allowed to stand for election and hold office?”

slide41

*

Percentage saying that “democracy is preferable to any other form of government.”

2005 figure for Tanzania includes 59 percent “don’t know/don’t understand.”

slide43

Percentages (a) satisfied with “the way democracy works” (b) perceiving that country has “full” or “almost full” democracy and (c) thinking country will remain a democracy in the future

slide44

*

Percentage “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with “the way democracy works in (this country).”

* The estimate for Ghana in 2002 is based on 15 percent “don’t knows” (imputed from R1 and R3 distributions)

slide45

Figure 10: Satisfaction with Democracy:

18 African Countries, 2005

“Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in (your country)?”

slide46

Percentages (a) satisfied with “the way democracy works” (b) perceiving that country has “full” or “almost full” democracy and (c) thinking country will remain a democracy in the future

slide48

Figure 13: Explaining Popular Demand for Democracy:

Selected Social Influences

a

Multiple Regression (OLS)

Unstandardized

Standardized

Coefficients

Coefficients

Model

B

Std. Error

Beta

Sig.

1

(Constant)

1.319

.027

.000

Gender (Female)

-.093

.008

-.083

.000

Habitat (Rural)

-.057

.009

-.049

.000

Age

.002

.000

.045

.000

Religion (Muslim)

.062

.011

.045

.000

Education

.052

.002

.185

.000

Model Summary

Adjusted

Std. Error of

R

R Square

R Square

the Estimate

.217

.047

.047

.54511

The dependent variable (demand for democracy) is an average index of support for democracy

and rejection of three authoritarian alternatives (military, one-party and one-man rule).

It measures the depth of popular commitments to a democratic regime.

slide49

Figure 14: Explaining the Perceived Extent of Democracy:

Formal Institutions versus Informal Ties, 2005

Multiple Regression (OLS)

Unstandardized

Standardized

Coefficients

Coefficients

Model

B

Std. Error

Beta

t

Sig.

1

(Constant)

1.318

.021

63.233

.000

Free and Fair Elections

.356

.007

.427

49.247

.000

Trust in the President

.200

.007

.242

27.910

.000

Model Summary

Adjusted

Std. Error of

Model

R

R Square

R Square

the Estimate

a

1

.575

.330

.330

.767

a.

Dependent Variable: EXTENT OF DEMOCRACY

Source: Individual-level data, Afrobarometer Round 3 for original 12 Afrobarometer countries

(n = 17,917 unweighted, 14,400 weighted)

Adjusted R square for all 18 R3 countries = .287

(Beta = .396 for free and fair elections. Beta = .239 for trust in president)

slide50

Percentage share of explained variance in extent of democracy accounted for by each predictor

12 original Afrobarometer countries (Round 1, N = 21,531; Round 3, N = 17,917)

“In your opinion, how much of a democracy is (your country) today?”

slide53

Clientelism: Average construct of agreement with two items:

  • “In our country these days, we should show more respect for authority.”
  • “Once in office, leaders are obliged to help their home community”
  • Corruption: “How many of the following people do you think are involved in corruption?
  • Members of parliament/National assembly deputies? Elected local government councilors?
  • Presidentialism: How much do you trust each of the following? The President?
slide54

Figure 19: Explaining the Extent of Democracy:

Comparing Formal and Informal Institutions, 2005

a

Multiple Regression (OLS)

Unstandardized

Standardized

Coefficients

Coefficients

Model

B

Std. Error

Beta

t

Sig.

1

(Constant)

2.627

.038

69.910

.000

FORMAL INSTITUTIONS

.021

.006

.033

3.455

.001

Elections that remove leaders

-.045

Peaceful multiparty competition

-.028

.005

-5.366

.000

A representative legislature

.081

.006

.121

12.481

.000

President subject to rule of law

-.064

.006

-.097

-10.947

.000

INFORMAL INSTITUTIONS

027

.006

-4.149

.000

.033

Clientelism

Corruption

-.131

.009

-.121

-14.126

.000

Trust in the President

.203

.007

.255

28.679

.000

a.

Dependent Variable: EXTENT OF DEMOCRACY

Model Summary

Adjusted

Std. Error of

Model

R

R Square

R Square

the Estimate

1

.433

.187

.187

.798

Source: Individual-level data, Afrobarometer Round 3

(n = 25,397 unweighted, 21,600 weighted, across 18 countries)

slide57

The Arab Barometer Team

  • Jordan: Center for Strategic Studies
  • Palestine: Center for Policy and Survey Research
  • Morocco: Hassan II University-Mohammadia
  • Algeria: University of Algiers
  • Kuwait: Kuwait University
  • Yemen: Yemen Interactions
  • Lebanon: Statistics Lebanon
  • United States: University of Michigan (PI), Princeton University (co-PI)
slide58

Thinking about Governance and Democracy in the Arab World

2006 Arab Human Development Report: Deficit of Freedom. “Viewed from the perspective of freedom and good governance, it is difficult to describe subsequent events in the Arab arena as the kind of widespread, thorough-going reform for which the report called…despite the growing winds of protest against governments and the intensifying demands for radical reform around the Arab world.”

slide63

Do People Think the is U.S. Helping?

To What Extent Do You Agree or Disagree with the Following Statement?

“U.S. Democracy Promotion Policies toward Arab Countries Are Good”

slide64

Understanding and Support of

Democracy Are Often Instrumental

slide65

People Are Divided about the Role of Religion in Government To What Extent Do you Agree or Disagree with the Following Statement?“Religious Practice Is a Private Matter and Should Be Separated from Socio-Political Life”

slide67
Disagreement about the Political Role of Islam Is Equally Pronounced among People Who Do and Do Not Favor Democracy
slide70

Binary Logistic Regression Models Estimating Support

for Secularism among Persons Who Support Democracy