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Energy Sources: The Emerging Technologies New & Renewable Energy Technologies in Japan November 11, 2004 Hideo Shindo Chief Representative of Washington DC Office New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) 1 Security of E nergy Supply Alternatives to oil 3Es

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energy sources the emerging technologies

Energy Sources: The Emerging Technologies

New & Renewable Energy Technologies in Japan

November 11, 2004

Hideo Shindo

Chief Representative of Washington DC Office

New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO)

1

slide2

Security of

Energy SupplyAlternatives to oil

3Es

Harmony

with EnvironmentLowering CO2 emission

Economic Efficiency

Market mechanism

Principle of Japan’s Energy Policy: 3Es

*The Basic Plan on Energy endorsed by the Cabinet in October 2003

→Four Fundamental Measures

  • Promoting Energy Conservation Measures
  • Ensuring a Stable Supply of Oil
  • Development and introduction of Diverse Sources of Energy
  • Basing the Energy Market on Market Principles

2

slide3

Energy in Japan in Comparison to the World

Characteristics

Ratio of the Self-supply of Energy

in Major Countries (2000)

(%)

Fragile Energy Supply Structure

- Scarce domestic energy resources

- Low ratio of self-supply of energy compared

to other major countries

- High dependency on oil from the Middle East

Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002”

Dependency on the Middle East for Oil and Dependency on Oil in the World (2000-2001)

Primary Energy Supply and Its Ratio in Major Countries (2000)

(%)

Source: IEA “Energy Balances of OECD Countries 2002”

Source: BP Statistics 2002 and IEA, Oil and Gas Information (2002)

slide6

Japan’s New and Renewable Energy Indicators

Supply Side

New Energy

Renewable Energy

Source : Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI

6

slide7

Type

Photovoltaic power

Wind power

Waste power

Biomass power

Small- and medium-scale hydropower

Residential

Non-residential

Large- scale

Small- and medium- scale

Large- scale

Small- and medium- scale

Power generation cost

46~66

73

9~14

18~24

9~11

11~12

7~21

14

Type

Nuclear power

LNG-fired

Coal-fired

Oil-fired

Power generation cost

5.9

6.4

6.5

10.2

Cost Competitiveness of NRE

Power generation cost of new energy

(Unit: JPY/kWh)

Source : Report by the New Energy Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural Resources (July 2001), and others

Power generation cost by power source

(Unit: JPY/kWh)

Source : Data of the 70th Nuclear Power Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee for Energy(December 1999)

7

slide8

:Market scale

Creation of Initial Demand

Market

independence

Creation of

initial demand

Technical

development

Diffusion Difficulty Level

Cannot be sold without support

▪ High cost

▪ Competition with

existing products

▪ Construction of a total

energy system

▪ A lack of social awareness

Synergistic

effect of mass

production

and cost

reduction

This period

is important.

この時期が重要

Period of

market creation

Development of

new products

Period of independence and expansion in the market

Period of market maturity

8

slide9

( New Energy ) Compatible cost with existing energies Development based on realistic / applicable conditions

( Energy Conservation ) Increasing energy efficiency of Industry / / Transportation sectors

Commercial& Household

Verification

Demonstration, Overseas Verification

Penetration Support

  • Geological balance & recipient characteristics to be considered
  • Comprehensive support for Industry / / Transportation sectors
  • Verify developed technology in all aspects

Commercial& Household

R & D(with a view to commercialization)

TrinityApproach

Contribution to realize “Long-term Energy Supply/Demand Outlook” (2010)

9

NEDO’s Energy-Related Activities

nedo r d expenditures in fy2004
NEDO R&D Expenditures (in FY2004)

(Unit:million JPY)

10

slide12

International Comparisons — Installed PV Capacity

(Unit: MW)

12

Source : IEA / PVPS (As of the end of 2002)

slide14

Themes:

 ・Recycling and reuse

process

 ・EMC evaluation and

measures

Themes:

・Low-cost mc-Si substrates

 ・Amorphous-Si solar cells on

plastic film

Themes:

 ・TF crystalline Si

 ・TF CIS

Themes:

 ・Wide bandgap microcrystalline SiC,

 ・Carbon-based thin-film,

・Dye-sensitized

PV R&D Scenario for 2010

Infrastructure

Infrastructure

PV System Technology for Mass Deployment

Demonstrative Research on ClusteredPV Systems

Mass Production

Cost Reduction

Development of Advanced Manufacturing Technology

Module manufacturing cost < 140JPY/W

Performance

Outcomes (2010)

・CO2 reduction =1.6Mt

at 4.82GW (accum.)

 ・\2 trillion market

in next 10 years

at 4.82GW (accum.)

・Domestic PV mass

deployment, global

environment solution

and contribution, etc.

Development of Advanced Solar Cells + Modules

Module Manufacturing cost < 100JPY/W

Seeds

Investigation for Innovative PV

Technology

Cost approx. 50JPY/W

R&D

Mass deployment

Innovation

Practical use

Mass production and

promotion

Advanced solar

cells

14

2001

2005

2010

slide15

Wind Power Generation Capacity in Japan

Introduction Volume

[MW]

Number of

Turbines

End of FY2003

684MW, 738Turbines

(Preliminary)

Fiscal Year

Source: NEDO research data

15

slide16

Expanded Application of Wind Power Generation Scenario

2002

2005

2010

Application stage

Diffusion stage

Wind conditions

Model of regional wind conditions

Map of wind conditions

Wind power generation field test

Wind turbines

For distant islands

Technology progress at private companies

Technology development, demonstration test

Stabilizing system

Generation side

Stabilizing wind power generation electricity system

System side

Electricity system measures → demonstration test

Maintenance of hardware infrastructure/application support

Application support (review of supplementary scheme)

Indicator application for 2010 :

3,000MW

Electricity system measures →System enforcement support measure

Measures for application and diffusion

Maintenance of infrastructure on software side

RPS Law (2003~)

Examination of review-related systems and restrictions aiming for an expanded market

Examination of international standardization

16

conditions for biomass energy in japan
Conditions for Biomass Energy in Japan

Potential Quantity of Waste Biomass Energy Source :

26 Million kl (Forecast for FY2010)

20%

Used Source Amount

4.95 Million kl

(FY2000 basis)

Unused Sources

Incineration Disposal, Reclamation Disposal, Ocean Dumping

21.05 Million kl

Technical Background

Social Requirement

Indicator for Biomass Energy Introduction

5.95 Million kl

(FY2010)

Utilization of Unused Sources

  • Evolution of Biotechnology
  • Research on New Reaction Fields (Supercritical
  • Technology)

30%

Miniaturization, Higher-Efficiency and Higher Device Performance

(Note)

Total Sum of Indicator for New Energy Introduction

19.10 Million kl (FY2010)

  • Environmental Issues (CO2 emission reductions)
  • Waste Problems (Shortage of Final Disposal
  • Sites, Dioxin Generation with
  • Incineration Disposal, Ban on Ocean Dumping

Reference : Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy,

"Report of Working Party on New Energy,“ etc.

17

slide18

Expanded Application of Biomass Energy Scenario

2010

2005

2002

Application Stage

Diffusion Stage

Technology development, demonstration test

Conversion technology

Development of high efficiency biomass conversion technology

Higher efficiency conversion

and lower cost.

Indicator

applications

for 2010

Power generation:

340,000 kl

Heat:

670,000 kl

Black liquor and scrap wood:

4,940,000 kl

Practical use and diffusion promotion

Demonstration test of unused energy

Application,

Full-scale market

expansion

Measures aiming for application and diffusion

Deciding regional vision

Project formation promotion businesses from regions

Application support (support for local governments and the public sector)

Overall action through cooperation of each ministry, without limitation to energy utilization based on “Biomass Nippon Strategy”

Maintenance of infrastructure on software side (system side)

Examination of liquid fuel utilization

Putting it into practice, diffusion

RPS Law (2003~)

slide19

Scenario for Practical Application and Diffusion of Fuel Cells

2020

2002

2005

2010

Introductory stage

Ground work and technology demonstration stage

Diffusion stage

Market will naturally grow and expand

Accelerate introduction

Initial introduction of fuel cell vehicle and stationary fuel cells

Firm Activity

Year 2020

Fuel Cell Vehicles :

5,000,000

Stationary Fuel Cells

10GW

Year 2010

Fuel Cell Vehicles :

50,000

Stationary Fuel Cells

2.2GW

Effort until around 2005 will be very important for future stages

Promoting Introduction

(Public sectors and FC industries will adopt FCVs)

Commer-cialization

Policy on accelerating Introduction

Promoting Commercialization

Verification Test(2002~2005)(Demonstration program on FCV road test, hydrogen station, and stationary fuel cells)

Fuel supply system

Establishment of fuel supply system mainly by the private sector

Stepwise Installment

Review of Regulations

Soft Infrastructure

Millennium Project (2000~2004)

[Establishment of standards,

International harmonization]

R&D on fuel cells

R&D on hydrogen utilization

R&D

R&D on basic factors that contribute further to improving performance and cost reduction

new activities
New Activities
  • Major Focus areas in New/Renewable Energy R&D
  • - PV : ↓Cost through Thin Film Technology;
  • Breakthrough in Performance & Durability in Dye-Sensitized PV Cells
  • - Biomass : ↓Cost; ↑Durability through Simplification of Systems
  • - Wind : ↑Operating ratio in Japanese Wind condition;
  • Validation of Necessary Strength
  • - FC : ↑Durability in System Operation; ↓Cost through Largescale Demonstration
  • 2. PV Roadmap Toward 2030
  • Target : PV Cumulative Installed Capacity 100GW (2030),
  • PV Power Generation to supply 50% of Residential Electricity
  • Consumption (10% of Total Electricity Consumption)
  • PV Electricity Cost : 7 Yen/kWh (2030) (vs. 49 Yen/kWh(2002))
  • PV Module Production Cost: 50 Yen/W (2030)
  • http://www.nedo.go.jp/english/informations/161027/pv2030roadmap.pdf

20

new activities cont d
New Activities(cont’d)
  • New Project Proposals for FY2005 (Examples)
  • PV : R&D Pj. for Technologies to Accelerate Introduction of PV Power Generation System to the Market
  • (1/2 Subsidy for Development Cost, JPY 2.15B for 3 years)
  • Solar Thermal : R&D Pj. for Innovative Use of Solar Thermal Energy Systems (JPY 1.50B for 3 years)
  • FC : Strategic R&D Pj. for PEFC Systems for Practical Use
  • (JPY 5.45B) (more focus on systematic development)
  • Hydrogen: R&D Pj. for Fundamental Technology for Hydrogen Society
  • (JPY 3.58B) (focus on safety, codes & standards)

21

new activities cont d22

3/25/2005 ~9/25/2005

New Activities(cont’d)

4. New Energy Hybrid Demonstration System at EXPO 2005Welcome!!

22

new energy hybrid demonstration system at expo 2005
New Energy Hybrid Demonstration System at EXPO 2005

3/25/2005 ~9/25/2005

Electric Power System

Electric Power Network

atExpo

Japanese Government Pabvilion

PV : 330kW

SOFC(50kW)

Absorption chiller

NAS Battery System

  500kW

Transformer Equipment

PAFC(800kW)

Absorption chiller

Methane Fermentation System

MCFC(350kW)

Absorption chiller

Waste (4.8 t/d)

Cool Water

Woodchips & Plastic

Heat

(20kg/h)

Granulation

Absorption chiller

High-temperature Gasification System

Air Conditioner

MCFC(370kW)

23

(City Gas)

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Japan’s energy supply structure is fragile.
  • 2. Diversification of energy supplies and decrease in energy demands are crucial.
  • 3.New / renewable energy is important though the market share is rather small.
  • 4.PV, Biomass, Wind, FC & Hydrogen : Important R&D areas.

24

slide25

Thank you for your attention.

More Info: http://www.nedo.go.jp/index.html  (Jpn)

http://www.nedo.go.jp/english/index.html  (Eng)

E-mail:shindo@nedodc.org

25