The Adequacy of the U.S. S&E Workforce: A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE

1. The Adequacy of the U.S. S&E Workforce:A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE John Sargent Senior Policy Analyst U.S. Department of Commerce

2. Alarm Bells… • “… the nation may likely face severe shortages in SET workers…” –Land of Plenty, Commission on the Advancement of Women and Minorities in Science, Engineering, and Technology Development (CAWMSET) • “There is a quiet crisis building in the United States [that] stems from the gap between the nation’s growing need for scientists, engineers, and other technically skilled workers, and its production of them.” – The Quiet Crisis: Falling Short in Producing American Scientific and Technical Talent, Building Engineering and Science Talent (BEST) • “… U.S. need for the highest quality human capital in science, mathematics and engineering is not being met.” – Hart-Rudman Commission • "Our 1998 study found a shortage of 346,000 programmers, systems analysts and computer scientists." – ITAA president Harris Miller • "We are not training enough American scientists and engineers to retain our prosperity ...." – American Scientist magazine, 2001 • “a serious deficit of scientists and engineers” resulting in “an evaporating dominance.” – Dan Goldin, former NASA administrator, 2001

3. Recent Occupational GrowthGrowth Rates

4. Recent Occupational GrowthGrowth in Numbers

5. Salary Growth

6. Unemployment Rates

7. Projected Growth in S&E Occupations

8. Distribution of Projected S&E Job Openings(new jobs plus net replacements)2000-2010

9. S&E Bachelor’s Degrees Life Sciences Up... ...Engineering, Physical Sciences, and Math Down

10. Engineering Bachelor’s Degrees…Half Empty or Half Full? …or a 53 percent increase since 1976? A 23 percent decline since 1985…

11. Both, depending on your perspective…

12. The Market PerspectiveDegree Production vs. Projected Job Openings

13. EngineeringDegrees & Projected Job Openings

14. Physical SciencesDegrees & Projected Job Openings

15. Mathematics and Computer ScienceDegrees & Projected Job Openings

16. Biological and Agricultural SciencesDegrees & Projected Job Openings

17. IT Education & Training LandscapeHow IT Workers Get and Maintain their Skills • IT Bachelor’s Degrees • IT-Related Minors • Combined IT Bachelors/Masters Degree Programs • IT-Related Masters of Science Programs • Techno MBAs • Two-Year IT Degrees at Community Colleges • IT Certificate Programs • Private, For-Profit Education and Training Institutions • Vendor and Vendor-neutral IT Certification • Federal, State and Regional IT Training Initiatives • Boot Camps and Seminars • Employer Programs • On-Line, CD-ROM, Books • The Churn

18. Professional-level IT Workers’ Educational Preparation Largely in the Sciences, Engineering

19. Possible Niche Areas of Need • Federal S&E Employees: Unique Challenges • Industries Affected by Past/Current Federal Demand • University Professors in High Demand Disciplines • Emerging Disciplines • Converging Disciplines • Industries with Past Workforce Shocks

20. Aerospace Engineering Education Rollercoaster

21. Challenge to the Community: Analysis • Conduct In-Depth Quantitative, Qualitative Analysis • Separate Niche, Broad Demand • Identify Unique Challenges • Industrial • Regional • Occupational • Level of Education

22. Challenge to the Community: Action • Math and Science Education in K-12 • Image of Scientists and Engineers • S&E Career Awareness in Middle, High School • Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary Institutions • Post-Secondary Institutions’ Responsiveness to Market Demands • Industry Must Help Itself

23. Challenges toGrowing Domestic S&E Workforce • Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business

24. Challenges toGrowing Domestic S&E Workforce • Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business

25. Challenges toGrowing Domestic S&E Workforce • Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business • Attractiveness of Careers in S&E vs. Law, Business • Strong Emphasis by Other Nations, Cultures on S&E Education • Access to Foreign Labor in the U.S. (H-1B, L1) • Access to Foreign Labor Abroad (Offshoring—direct and through contract) • Significantly lower salary costs • Pools of well-educated S&E talent • Improved national infrastructure, political stability • Large Government, Industry Focus on Health R&D

26. Factors Supporting U.S. Ability to Grow Domestic S&E Workforce • Premier Academic Research Institutions • Elite Students Among Best in World • Powerful Industrial Base, Potential Partners in S&E Education and Training • Money Talks!

27. Contact Information John F. Sargent Senior Policy Analyst Office of Technology Policy, Technology Administration U.S. Department of Commerce 202-482-6185 jsargent@ta.doc.gov www.ta.doc.gov

28. Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded, by Gender

29. U.S. Population Projections: GenderSteady Growth for Males and Females Through 2100

30. S&E Bachelor’s Degrees, by Gender

31. Women’s Share of MEPS Bachelor’s Degrees Growing, Still Comparatively Low

32. Share of Bachelor’s Degrees in Each Field Earned by Women, 2000

33. Underrepresented Minorities’ Share of Total U.S. S&E Bachelor’s Degrees

34. S&E Bachelor’s DegreesSelection Rates, by Race

35. U.S. Population Projections: Numbers By Race, EthnicitySharp Increase in Hispanics; Substantial Increase in Asians; Moderate Increase in Blacks; Whites, American Indians Constant

36. U.S. Population Projections: Racial and Ethnic CompositionSteep Decline in Percentage of Whites; Sharp Increase in Hispanics; Substantial Increase in Asians; Moderate Decline in Blacks; American Indians Constant

37. Strong correlation between Federal R&D investments in MEPS and bachelor’s degree production in MEPS fields Federal R&D, Non-Biomedical constant (1996)B$ Federal R&D, Non-Biomedical constant (1996)B$

38. IT Applications Computer Chip Design Help Desk Software Engineering Software Design Programming IT Hardware Systems Integration Software Systems Integration E-commerce Supply-Chain Management Data Mining Offshoring: IT on Leading Edge

39. Home Loan Processing Radiology Insurance Claim Processing Scientific Information Research Accounting Financial Analysis Engineering Design Product Design Employee Benefits Tax Accounting Architectural Work R&D Airline Reservation and Customer Service Credit Card/Loan Processing IT Not Alone

40. India China Russia Poland Mexico Czech Republic Poland Philippines Hungary Costa Rica Brazil Where is the Work Going?

41. Factors Driving Interest in Offshoring Globally competitive environment, market financial expectations… • Cost • Business Climate • Less Regulation • Fewer Torts • Round the Clock Operations • Focus on Core Competencies

42. U.S. IT Workers $70-$100 per hour U.S. Programmers $1,600-$3,600 per mo. U.S. Project Managers $3,600-$7,100 per mo. U.S. Architects $65 per hour U.S. Engineers $90,000 per year IT Workers in India $20 per hour Programmers in the Philippines $250-$700 per mo. Project Managers in the Philippines $700-$1,150 per mo. Architects in Hungary $18 per hour Engineers in the Philippines $13,000 per year Media-reported Salary Comparisons Here…AND…There