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AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group November 5, 2010 PowerPoint Presentation
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AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group November 5, 2010

AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group November 5, 2010

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AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group November 5, 2010

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  1. AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group November 5, 2010 Update on Census Info and Planning Products/ Getting Ready for TAZ Delineation • Topics • Boundaries • 3-year CTPP/ACS • 5-year CTPP • TAZs/TADs • PUMS/PUMAS Ed Christopher Resource CenterPlanning Team Federal Highway Administration 4749 Lincoln Mall Dr. Rm 600 Matteson, IL 60443 708-283-3534 edc@EdtheFed.com

  2. http://www.electiondataservices.com 2

  3. Boundaries -- Some Background Urban Areas Urbanized Areas (50,000+) circa 1950 Urban Clusters (2,500 to 49,999) circa 2000 http://rtc.ruralinstitute.umt.edu/ 3

  4. Transportation Perspective (Census Defined) Urbanized Area (UZA) Federal-Aid (Adjusted) Urban[ized] Area (FAUA) Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA) Non-Attainment Area http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census/faqa2cdt.htm 4

  5. Some Implications for Transportation • New / Retired MPOs • New / Retired TMAs • Expanded MPOs & TMA • Changed Roadway Classifications • Data Reporting and reports • Funding and Financial Issues • Outdoor Advertising Hinges on Transportation Bill http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census/faqa2cdt.htm 5

  6. What’s an MPO? A TMA? NARC- Status Quo AASHTO -Somewhat Vague FHWA - Internal House - T+I Committee, HR ____ Senate - 100K - Threshold Grandfathering 200K - Project Selection Authority 1 Million+ Special Funding and Requirements http://www.ampo.org/assets/685_finalampopdfoverviewappro.pdf 6

  7. Timing 2009 SAFETEA-LU expired New Bill Expected (2011) ??? 2010 Fed Register-Comments on UA Criteria 2012 New UAs Released (Springtime) Register Notice on Proposed Criteria for Urban Area Boundaries (August 24, 2010) http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/pdf/2010-20808.pdf http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-20808.htm 7

  8. Highlights of Federal Register Notice • oUse of Tracts as Analysis Unit (Initial Phase) • o Reducing Jumps from 2.5 miles to 1.5 • o Use of a National Land Cover Data Base • o Changing Airport threshold from 10K to 2,500 enplanements • o Eliminating the Central Place Concept • o Establishing Minimum pop living outside of group quarters • o Splitting Large Areas • o Naming Criteria Comments due November 22, 2010

  9. Data Type Population Size of Area Data for the Previous Year Released in: 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+ Annual 65,000+ 3-year Period 20,000+ 5-year Period Tract and Block Group ACS Data Releases

  10. And then the CTPP Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP) Program The CTPP is an umbrella program of Census related data products, custom tabulations, training, technical assistance, and research for the transportation community

  11. CTPP History http://www.trbcensus.com/articles/ctpphistory.pdf

  12. CTPP then and Now CTPPackage Prior to ACS CTPProducts Program Post ACS • The CTPP program now includes • Many more Data products • Training and technical assistance • On-call user support • Training classes and web seminars • Research Federal Technical Advisory Group TRB Subcommittee -- List Serve (800 strong) Quarterly Newsletter -- Outreach -- Several Websites 12

  13. A Lot is Coming at Us

  14. 3-year CTPP Data Product CTPP 3-Year September 2010 Oct/Nov 2010 2006, 2007, 2008 20,000 Pop. Areas (County, Place, PUMAs) Actual Flows _______________ XXVXX http://trbcensus.com/products

  15. 2008 Geography Product Structure 3-Parts Part 1-Place of Residence Part 2-Place of Work Part 3-Flows between Home and Work On-Line Data Retrieval Extraction Software ~ Raw Data Download Nation (US Total) State State-County State-County-MCD State-Place State-PUMA(red = 2000 geo.) State-POW PUMA Metropolitan Statistical Area MSA – EACH Principal City The 3-year Product Design http://ctpp.transportation.org/Documents/CTPP_custom_tabulations_based_on_3yracs2006_2008.xls

  16. The 3-year Product County to County Flows are on the street ftp://ftp.camsys.com/temp/outgoing/CTPP/New%20CTPP%20ACS/

  17. 3-year CTPP Product Summary

  18. Some Issues to be aware of 3-year ACS (2006, 2007, 2008) What year is the data? Period Estimate brought forward to year of release What Data to use? Reliability vs. Currency

  19. Significance Testing--Why do it? MOE, MOE, MOE Source: CTPP Data Profiles http://ctpp.transportation.org/Pages/overview.aspx http://www.edthefed.com/presentations/significance%20testing.ppt

  20. Working with ACS A Compass for Understanding And Using ACS Data l Set of user-specific handbooks l Train-the trainer materials l E-learning ACS Tutorial l Annotated Presentations http://www.census.gov/acs/www/UseData/Compass/compass_series.html

  21. What data should I use? Travel Times for the 6-counties in NE Illinois 1. To compare with 1970, ‘80, ‘90 and 2000 Travel Times? 2. To compare with my town of 52,000 people? 3. To validate my 2008 vintage travel demand model?

  22. Finally A word about Collapsing Collapsing

  23. CTPP products collapsing schema

  24. And remember I noted Incomplete Coverage? NE Illinois (2009 3-year ACS) Gray = Less than 20K people and No data X “Where’s the beef Data?” “It Looks Like Swiss Cheese”

  25. 5-year CTPP Data Product New Geography Requires implementation of new disclosure avoidance (“masking”) techniques

  26. The are DRB rules • Cell Means and aggregates require 3 unweighted records • For Pt 3 Flow Tables: 3 unweighted records for each table, each cell, with the exception of the 1-way Means of Trans. table • 3 unweighted records for the marginal's in any cross-tabulation with Means of Trans.

  27. 5-year CTPP Data Product NCHRP 08-79 ($550K) Producing Transportation Data Products from the ACS that Comply With Disclosure Rules • NCHRP is funded by State DOTs SP&R • Project schedule: Jan 2010-July 2011 • Need results to be applied to 2006-2010 ACS for the 5-year CTPP (delivery to software vendor in summer 2012) • Westat, Tom Krenzke, PI

  28. “NEW” TAZs Traffic Analysis Zones • Defined by MPOs and State DOTS • Software Deployed (Spring 2011) • Developed in Summer 2011 • TAZs will nest with TADs • GIS equivalency process • Funded under Consolidated Purchase http://download.ctpp.transportation.org/TAZ_Rules/TAZ%20Delineation%20Business%20Rules_CTPP%20Final.pdf

  29. What is an equivalency process? Take the map at the right and using the states boundaries make 9 contiguous regions It’s the same for TAZs Blocks cluster into TAZs

  30. A real world example • Census Blocks will make up TAZs • TAZs will nest with TADs • TADs will nest in Counties • Nesting with Tracts is optional

  31. TAZ Size • CB recommends • ~600 persons • corresponds to the minimum • threshold for 2010 Census • Block Groups • Threshold is guideline not a requirement • TAZs may be defined with fewer than 600 residents or workers • Data reliability and availability improves as population size increases Bigger is Better

  32. The Schedule Nov 2010 - Agencies verify contact names (AASHTO Website) Jan 2011 - Final delivery of Software by Caliper Feb 2011 - Web-based training Feb 25 and Feb 28 March through April 2011 - Delivery of software and Census 2010 data and geographic files (Rolling basis) 3- Months to delineate TAZ/TADs June through July 2011 - Files returned to CB Geography

  33. Creating TAZs Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model Structure White Paper on Recommended Approach to Delineating TAZ http://www.fsutmsonline.net/images/uploads/reports/FDOT_TAZ_White_Paper.pdf http://www.fsutmsonline.net/images/uploads/mtf-files/PPT_12_TAZ%20White%20Paper_NOV07_FINAL_CS_Keli_Wu.ppt

  34. 5-year Geography and Flows • Asymmetrical Flows • Small Areas defined by MPOs in MPO areas and States Elsewhere • Tracts are Defaults for Small Areas • Default TADs under discussion

  35. PUMAs? -- What are they? Public Use Microdata Sample PUMSdata is based on individual census records and is available only at large geographic areas. Think of the PUMS dataset as the raw, disaggregate census sample data, at a large enough geographic level necessary to protect the confidentiality of the census respondent. Standard Tabs ACS Sample PUMS Records PUMAs are the zones used from PUMS data

  36. Chicago Why are PUMAs Important? NE Illinois (2008 pop estimate) Let’s Look at Annual Data • Annual Data • 65K+ • Note the areas in gray • We call this Swiss Cheese

  37. Why are PUMAs Important? NE Illinois (PUMAs) Tabulation Area for ACS • Represent 100K • Complete Coverage • Smaller than Counties • NO Swiss Cheese

  38. How many PUMAs should this area have? City of Chicago 2000 PUMAs Why are PUMAs Important? - Defines areas for analysis - Tabulation Area for ACS - Custom Tabulation Who Defines Them? - The Community - Led by State Data Center When are They Defined? - Summer 2011 - Criteria out Spring 2010 2,896,016 (2000 Pop) http://www.census.gov/geo/www/maps/puma5pct.htm

  39. PUMA Resources IPUMS maintains the PUMS data back to the 1850 census and has and online table generator Minnesota Population Center http://usa.ipums.org/usa/ CTPP Webinar on IPUMS http://ctpp.transportation.org/Pages/webinardirectory.aspx Compass Handbook by Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads/handbooks/ACSPUMS.pdf

  40. What else?

  41. 5 year regular ACS Fed Register Notice onACS 5-Year Data Product Plans http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/pdf/2010-23373.pdf http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-23373.htm Data due out in December 2010 ’05, ‘06, ’07. ’08, ’09 Data Years Block Groups not on FactFinder and loaded with suppression

  42. Census Bureau E-Tutorial and ACS http://www.census.gov/acs/www/guidance_for_data_users/e_tutorial/

  43. Just in American FactFinder to get facelift in January Take the Advance Tour http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/tour.html 43

  44. And now for the aftermath

  45. To Learn more about the CTPP http://www.dot.gov/ctpp http://www.TRBcensus.com http://ctpp.transportation.org Join the CTPP List Serve http://www.trbcensus.com/maillist.html 45