MOVEX Demand Planning Interact Feb 22 nd - 24 th 2005. Steen Jorgensen Solution Design Manager, Intentia Americas email@example.com. Agenda. Introduction
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MOVEX Demand PlanningInteract Feb 22nd- 24th 2005 • Steen Jorgensen • Solution Design Manager, Intentia Americas • firstname.lastname@example.org
Agenda • Introduction • MOVEX Demand Planning- Components- Datasets- Manual forecasting- Statistical forecasting- Collaborative demand planning- Segregation of event demand • Q&A
Supply Chain Management (SCM) Movex Supply Chain Execution Distribution Order Processing Inventory Statistics Lot and Allocation Control Transportation Management Warehouse Management Warehouse Integration PKMS Warehouse Management Movex Supply Chain Planning Demand Planner Supply Chain Planner Global CTP Multi-Site Planner MSP Viewer Yield Optimizer MerciaLincs Demand Planner MerciaLincs Strategic Inventory Planner MerciaLincs Internet Demand Planner Resource and Material Planning Distribution Requirements Planning Forecasting Master Production Scheduling Material Planning Rough-Cut Capacity Planning Advanced Production Planner APP Viewer Supply Chain Management
= Intentia Solution Suppliers Customers Product Plans Overall Goals Investment Plans Suppliers: Capacities Lead Times Prices Statistical Forecast Manual Forecasts Collaborative Demand Planning Forecast Constraint-Based Supply Planning Capacity Adjusted Forecasts Consensus Demand Planning Supplier Agreements Sourcing Rules Production Plan Consensus Forecast Transporter Wholesaler Retailer Component Manufacturer Finished Goods Manufacturer Tactical Planning Process Strategic Management Sales Management Tactical Management Demand Planning Supply Chain Planner Business Performance Measurement Operational Planning Execution
Pain Pain Pain Pain Pain Pain Pain Root Cause: Poor Demand Planning Stocks of Wrong Raw & Finished Goods Root Cause and Effects Expired Stock Poor Customer Service Levels Obsolete stock Too Much Capital and Space Tied Up Stock Outs on Main Product Lines Non-balanced Budget Required Safety Stock Levels too High Risk of Being De-listed by Major Customers Rush Orders and Overtime
What is Demand Planning? • More then just statistical forecast • More than just someone’s best guess • More than just a look at history • It’s a combination of qualitative and quantitative inputThe sum is greater than the parts!!!
MOVEX Demand Planning Components • MOVEX Sales Budgeting- Manual / Statistical budgets • MOVEX Repetitive Forecasting- Manual / Statistical forecasts • Demand Planner- Multi level forecasting- Market Intelligence entry (i.e. event planning, Phase in, Phase out)- Collaborative demand planning • Statistics
MOVEX Repetitive forecasting • Production forecasting- Manual entry (FCS350)- Statistical calculation (FCS001 / FCS100)- Forecast families (FCS400)- MDS versions • Dataset forecasting- Manual entry (OSS420)- Statistical calculation (FCS440)- 6 level forecasting hierarchy- Planning entity (RPS045)- Distribution templates (OSS422)- Budget versions
Evolution of datasets in MOVEX • Sales statistics • Manual Budgeting • Statistical Budgeting (basic methods) • Statistical Budgeting (all methods) • Demand Planner Demand Planner has enabled the use of datasets in repetitive forecasting.
Dataset 2 Dataset 1 Cust no Cust grp Country Qty C100 CG1 US 50 C200 CG2 MEX 40 Country SKU Item grp Qty US 1234 AAA 20 US 1111 AAA 30 MEX 3333 BBB 40 MOVEX Dataset Statistics file Cust no Cust grp Country SKU Item grp Qty … C100 CG1 US 1234 AAA 20 C100 CG1 US 1111 AAA 30 C200 CG2 MEX 3333 BBB 40
Changed Affected Not affected Adjustment & Manipulation of Dataset Forecast Middle Out Bottom Up Top Down Country Customer Item Group Item number User-defined multi-level structure View at both aggregated and detailed level
The “Baseline” Process • The calculated forecast (MFCFOR) forms at all times a baseline for the forecasting. • The changes made in DMP (MFMADJ) are put on top of calculated forecast (MFCFOR) adding up to a “Total forecast.” • If the calculated forecast (MFCFOR) is altered in Movex due to changes in the historical demand (UCDEMA), the changes made in DMP (MFMADJ) are put on top of the new calculated forecast (MFCFOR) - the “Total forecast” is consequently changed as well. • Manual forecast (MFMFOR) overrules the calculated forecast (MFCFOR) and adjustments (MFMADJ).
Paper & Faxes Telephone Messages Unsynchronized Spreadsheets Separate Files Consolidating and Manipulating Plans Disadvantages of spreadsheets: • Prone to errors - people add & delete cells, columns, etc. • Complex as keeping track of different spreadsheet copies and versions is a nightmare • Gathering and consolidating data is a time consuming process • No integration with Movex Sales Office / Account Manager
Movex SCP Demand Planners Supply planning Market intelligence entry MRP/DRP Production forecast Client-server architecture for a distributed workflow Demand Planner Manager
Step G: Demand plan used to drive manufacturing and distribution Step A:Forecasts are imported to DMP from the Business Engine Step G Step A Step F: Forecastupdated on Movex Business Engine Step B:Forecasts are distributed and updated in Demand Planner by forecasters Step F Step B Step E Step C Step E:Consensus forecast - oneconsolidated forecast Step C:Forecasts are reviewed and accepted by central administrator (or planning team) Step D Step D:Planning simulations on initial forecast in Supply Chain Planner (optional) Demand Planning Workflow Central Demand Planner Forecaster
Business Value from MOVEX Demand Planning • Increased forecast accuracy • Consensus forecast • Reduced lost sales • Faster and easier planning cycle • Minimized obsolete stocks • Aggressive control of new product introductions, promotions and sales
= Intentia Solution Suppliers Customers Transporter Wholesaler Retailer Component Manufacturer Finished Goods Manufacturer MOVEX Supply Chain Management Strategic Planning Professional Planner Supply Chain Planner Opportunity Analyzer Tactical Planning Supply Chain Planner Demand Planning Operational Planning Yield Optimizer Procurement Resource & Material Planning MSP / APP Global CTP Execution Production Production Planner Sales Mgmt. e-Sales Procurement