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2010 ELECTION UPDATE EVAN TRACEY PRESIDENT CAMPAIGN MEDIA ANALYSIS GROUP, A KANTAR MEDIA SOLUTION Kantar Media – Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG) Innovative technology, experienced professionals Providing Political Ad Research Since 1997

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2010 election update evan tracey president campaign media analysis group a kantar media solution

2010 ELECTION UPDATE EVAN TRACEYPRESIDENT CAMPAIGN MEDIA ANALYSIS GROUP, A KANTAR MEDIA SOLUTION

kantar media campaign media analysis group cmag
Kantar Media – Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG)
  • Innovative technology, experienced professionals
  • Providing Political Ad Research Since 1997
  • Tracking and Analyzing Political, Public Affairs and Issue-Advocacy Advertising
  • Experienced Political Researchers
  • Advising Clients on Media Strategy, Forecasting Media Buys, Public Relations and Crisis Communication

© 2010 Kantar Media

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Campaign Media Analysis Group

CUSTOM SYNDICATED MODEL

Unique Insights…

…Easily Viewed In Flexible Formats

© 2010 Kantar Media

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2010 election ad outlook
2010 Election Ad Outlook
  • 2010 Ad Landscape
  • 2010 Election Themes
  • 2010 Stretch Run

© 2010 Kantar Media

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2010 election outlook
2010 ELECTION OUTLOOK
  • Political Media Trends
        • Campaigns Still Spend At the End
        • Ad Spending $160m Above The Same Time Period in 2006.
        • Broadcast Media Receiving Bulk of Campaign Spending.
        • Digital and Social Media, Radio and Cable spending Also Up.

© 2010 Kantar Media

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2010 campaign landscape
2010 Campaign Landscape
  • What is Driving Ad Spending in 2010?
  • Competitive, Multi-Candidate and Special Elections
  • Control of Congress is at Stake
  • Big Issues Nationally and Locally
  • Early Voting and Changes to Campaign Law

© 2010 Kantar Media

campaign 2010 political armageddon federal races
Campaign 2010 Political Armageddon – Federal Races

Party Control at Stake U.S. House & Senate

House and Senate

Over 100 U.S. House Races are Considered ‘In-Play’

Bonus & Surprisingly Competitive Senate Races

Political Climate = The Return of Incumbent Insecurity

© 2010 Kantar Media

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campaign 2010 political armageddon state local
Campaign 2010 Political Armageddon State & Local

State & Local Races

37 Governors Running

More than Half of Governors will be New the Day After 2010 Elections

Big State & Stakes

Strong Party Committees

Angry Unions

Ballot Measures

Down-Ballot Turnover

© 2010 Kantar Media

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Candidates &

Groups/Party Spending Up

© 2010 Kantar Media

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2010 issue ads
2010 Issue Ads
  • Year Over Year Consistent Spending
  • Migrating to Network & Cable
        • 2/3 of Spending is National
  • Remainder of 2010
        • Policy Becomes Politics in Even Years
        • “Obamacare” Rebranding & Post Gulf Spill Energy Bill
        • New England Triangle
        • Possibility of a “Lame Duck” Session

© 2010 Kantar Media

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role of the digital media in 2010
Role of the Digital Media in 2010

“In the past, campaigns may have had a conversation about whether they should invest time and resources in new media, now they just do it naturally,” said Jennifer Crider, deputy executive director/communications director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Doug Heye, communications director of the Republican National Committee:

As for the future, “hasn’t seen anyone cut their television advertising budget,” because of the advances in technology, but, he added, that he has seen direct-mail budgets slashed.

  • More Spending… But Still a Fraction
  • Campaign Doing More With Social Media Tools & Video
  • Web Video Grabbing Headlines, Not Winning Elections
  • OFA is MIA
  • Online Working to Become a Bigger Part of the End Game
  • Online Raising More Money for Traditional

© 2010 Kantar Media

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2010 political climate

“A month is a light year in politics.”—Gov.Haley Barbour

2010 Political Climate

Mostly bad news for the Democrats

  • Republicans are leading Democrats on the economy, jobs and federal spending
  • The president’s approval rating among Independents is only 40%, share of voters who identify as Independents is up to 16%
  • Polls show that the engaged voters are angry about spending and the stimulus package; advantage GOP

© 2010 Kantar Media

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political theme 2010 is the break room election
Political Theme2010 is the “Break Room” Election
  • Swing Voter is Employed
          • Economic Insecurity = Incumbent Insecurity
          • Impact or Lack There Of – Washington Policy Making
          • Spending, Debt & Bailouts
          • This is a “Role of Government” Election
          • Over Half of All Ads Negative So Far

Incumbents are running away from Washington and Directly Toward Their Opponents

© 2010 Kantar Media

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the stretch run
The Stretch Run

© 2010 Kantar Media

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what to expect the final 7 weeks
What to “Expect” the Final 7 Weeks
  • Historically 75% of Political Ad Spending
  • Local Campaigns Going On The Air
  • Extremely Negative Rhetoric
  • Democrats Leverage Money & Firewall Strategy

House, Senate & Gov’s Spending More than $5 Million Per Day on Average

© 2010 Kantar Media

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2010 forecast the big question will there be money
2010 FORECAST: THE BIG QUESTIONWILL THERE BE MONEY?

“There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.”

…William McKinley

© 2010 Kantar Media

  • 2010 Record Fundraising
  • $1 Billion COH & $1.2 Billion Raised this Year (Federal)
  • Some Party Committees Lagging, While Others are Setting Records
  • Groups/Unions Filling the Gaps

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impact of citizens united
Impact of “Citizens United”
  • Groups Come in Various Sizes
    • Return of the Super PAC’s
    • State & Race Specific Groups
    • No More Magic Words
    • Limited Role For Corporations
  • Fighting Over the Same Ground
    • Heaviest Spend at the End
    • Moving In and Out of the “Hot Races”
    • Targeting “Trophy Races”

© 2010 Kantar Media

end game for political ads
End Game For Political Ads
        • Personal, Negative & Plentiful
        • Final Ad Push Could Go National
        • Unclear Role of the Groups
        • Online Working to be a Bigger Part of the End Game
  • At this time, we feel ad spending in the 2010 elections along with issue spending will be better than the 2008 & 2006 cycles, and there is greater upside at this point.

© 2010 Kantar Media

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numbers to watch this fall
Numbers to Watch This Fall
  • Last Day of Oktoberfest
    • How Many Democrat Strategists on Cable News Shows Predict The U.S. House is a “Lost Cause”
    • Status of the Bush Tax Cuts
    • Approval Ratings for the President vs. Tea Party
    • Poll Numbers in Senate & Governors’ Races
    • Late Fundraising Totals by Party
  • Halloween
    • October Surprises?
    • Financial Markets
    • Final Unemployment Numbers
    • Consumer Confidence
    • Right Track/Wrong Track Numbers

© 2010 Kantar Media

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