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US CO 2 emissions from transportation vs. total (in MMT). 32.3%. 27.6%. Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/. Source: US EPA (2003) Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends. Source: US EPA (2003) Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends.

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slide1

US CO2 emissions from transportation vs. total (in MMT)

32.3%

27.6%

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/

slide4

Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends

Source: US EPA (2003) Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends

slide5

Pressure to reduce GHG emissions from vehicles is increasing:

  • European Union
  • Goal: Average of 120 g CO2 per km driven for passenger cars by 2015
  • 1999/2000: Voluntary agreements with car manufacturers
  • 2007/2008 : Conversion into binding regulation
  • California - Assembly Bill 1493
  • Goal: Average of 127 g CO2eq per km driven for passenger cars by 2016
  • 2002: AB 1493 passes Assembly and Senate
  • 2004: AB 1493is approved by Governor
  • New York State
  • 2005: Official proposal to adopt California’s regulation
  • Canada
  • 2005 Voluntary agreements with car manufacturers

Agreements / regulations do not use a full life cycle perspective

slide6

Typical life cycle GHG emissions of a passenger car:

Total:

Compact ~ 50 tonnes of CO2 eq

Midsize ~ 60-70 tonnes of CO2 eq

SUV ~ 80+ tonnes of CO2 eq

5-15 %

4-5 %

80-90 %

0-1 %

Vehicle GHG reduction strategies focus on the use phase

slide7

There are many ways to reduce use phase GHG emissions of vehicles:

  • Power train modifications: HEV, FCV, BEV
  • Engine modifications: Variable valve timing and lift, cylinder shut-off
  • Fuel combustion modifications: Turbocharger, CVR, direct injection
  • Transmission modifications: Continuously variable transmission, shifting schedules
  • Alternative fuels: Biodiesel, ethanol, hydrogen
  • Reduction of aerodynamic drag: Body shape
  • Reduction ofrolling resistance: Tires
  • Vehicle mass reduction: Smaller vehicles, better packaging, light-weight materials
slide8

Life cycle GHG emissions: ICEV versus HEV

Average lifecycle GHG (in kg CO2eq) emissions of a Civic Hybrid (HEV) and a Civic LX (ICEV)

Source: Bren Group Project on HEV (Class of 2005)

(Average for manual and automatic transmission)

slide9

Energy efficiencies of ICEV, HEV, BEV, FCV

Internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) :

Fuel productionand delivery

ICE,

powertrain friction

0.88 x 0.16 = 0.14

Hybrid electric vehicle (HEV):

Fuel productionand delivery

Electric motor, ICE, battery

powertrain friction

0.88 x 0.32 = 0.28

Battery electric vehicle (BEV):

Power plant

Electricity

transmission

Battery

Electric motor,

powertrain friction

0.35 – 0.55 x 0.93 x 0.8 x 0.8 = 0.2 – 0.33

Fuel cell vehicle (FCV):

Compression,

transmission

Fuel cell

Electric motor,

powertrain friction

Reformation

0.8 x 0.75 x 0.5 x 0.8 = 0.24

slide10

Use the PV method to answer the following question:

After how many years of driving is the price premium of a hybrid vehicle recovered?

  • Compare the Toyota Camry Hybrid with a conventional Camry
  • Compare the Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid with a conventional Tahoe
  • Use the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP)
  • Use the new EPA combined MPG rating
  • Use 2009 model specifications (make sure models are equivalent)
  • Use fuel prices of $2.50 per gallon
  • Assume 15,000 miles driven per year
  • Assume a 5% discount rate
slide11

Larrick R P, Soll J B (2008) The MPG Illusion, Science, Vol. 320, 20 June 2008

Purchase of a HEV instead of an ICEV

1

months

Monthly fuel cost savings (MS)

Price premium (PP)

Example:

slide12

Purchase of a PV system

Loan to pay for

PV system

Example – Electricity from utility:

Household consumption: 25 kWh / day (750 kWh / 30 days)

Cost of electricity: 0.17 cents / kWh ($ 127.50 / 30 days)

Monthly electricity cost savings

months

Monthly loan payments

Example – PV system that generates 25 kWh / day

Installation cost: $25,000

Lifetime: 25 years

Financing: $25,000 loan, over 25 years, 5% fixed rate

Monthly loan payments: ???

Installation cost of

PV system

slide13

Annuity Factor AF

Cash flow structure of an annuity:

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

C

1

i

years

slide15

Purchase of a PV system

Loan to pay for

PV system

Monthly electricity cost savings $127.50

months

Monthly loan payments

Installation cost of

PV system

slide17

Citizenrē REnU Business Model

Citizenrē plans, installs, maintains, and owns the PV system on your roof.

All you have to pay is a fixed monthly rental fee.

Expected average monthly electricity cost savings $127.50

months

Fixed monthly rental fee $127.50

How can they do this?

slide18

Citizenrē REnU Business Model

Disclaimer: The numbers below are guesstimates and for teaching purposes only

Example – PV system that generates 25 kWh / day

Installation cost for Citizenrē: $20,000 (Citizenrē is vertically integrated)

Lifetime: 25 years

Financing: Assume average cost of capital for Citizenrē of 3%

Monthly income: $127.50

Expected average monthly administration and maintenance cost: $15

Monthly capital expenses:

Expected average monthly pretax operating profit per system: $ 17.66

For 34,791 systems: $ 614,409 per month