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Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Sciences „Friedrich List“ Institute of Logistics and Aviation. Chair of Business Administration, Transport and Logistics. Dynamic school network planning with regard to school choice and travel-to-school mode choice. Sven Müller.

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dynamic school network planning with regard to school choice and travel to school mode choice

Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Sciences „Friedrich List“ Institute of Logistics and Aviation

Chair of Business Administration, Transport and Logistics

Dynamic school network planningwith regard to school choice and travel-to-school mode choice

Sven Müller

Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers

San Francisco, USA April, 17.-21. 2007

fewer number of school locations

S1

S2

S3

S1

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1.1 Problem definition

10 year old students in Dresden

=> Fewer number of school locations

=> Locational cost saving BUT longer ways to school

=> Change in travel-to-school mode choice

=> Increase of travel cost

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

slide3

Socio-demographic and socio-economic data

Mobility survey „Students of Dresden“

Spatial data of Dresden

School choice model

(MMNL) subject to distance, profile and authority

Travel mode choice model (MNL) subject to distance and car availability

Model for dynamic school network planning

1.2 Approach

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

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2.1 School choice modelling

Mixed multinomial logit model (MMNL)

Train, K.E. (2003): Discrete choice

methods with simulation, Cambridge.

  • Felxible stochastic part of utility function yields random taste variation and incorporates unobserved attributes
  • Maximum simulated likelihood estimation (MSLE)
  • Enumeration: unconditional choice probabilities have to be computed by simulation as well

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

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2.2 Results

Number of observations: 3704Number of draws: 1000rho-square: 0.436all variables significant on 95%-level

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

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3.1 Travel-to-school mode choice modelling

Multinomial logit model (MNL)

  • Stochastic part of the utility function is i.i.d. extreme value!
  • Closed-form estimation is possible ("analytically") => no simulation
  • No substitution patterns expected and fixed choice set supposed

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

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3.2 Results

Number of observations: 9300

rho-square: 0.621

all variables significant on 99%-level, except * (95%)

reference alternative: car/motorcycle

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

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4.1 Location model

Sets

Parameters

Variables

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

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Set :

Parameter :

4.1 Location model

  • Total nr. of students attending school s in scenario w and period t determined by school choice model (MMNL, section 2):
    • must notexceed the maximum capacity of s (nr. of students)
    • must comply minimum constraints:
      • - minimum number of students per class
      • - minimum number of classes per grade
  • Fix locational cost of each school
  • Variable cost of each school (per student)
    • Depending on nr. of attending students
    • Includes cost of possible capacity reduction and expansion
  • Transport cost (per student)
    • Determined by travel-to-school mode choice model (MNL, section 3)
    • Related to distance and mode (incl. compensation payments for public transport service)

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

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4.1 Location model

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

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4.2 Results

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

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5. Summary

  • Travel-to-school mode choice dependent on distance,car availability (public transportation – car/motorcycle), weather (cycling - other travel-to-school modes)
  • School choice determinated by distance,profile and authority, among others
  • Increasing transportation cost and additional burden of students (and parents respectively) have to be opposed with savings in infrastructure cost in case of school closures.
  • Simultaneous modelling of travel-to-school mode choice and school choice using a simultaneous equation system with latent utility
  • Column generation approach
  • Develop a model which maximizes students utility

Sven Müller, MA:

Dynamic school network planning with regard to travel mode and school choice

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Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Sciences „Friedrich List“ Institute for Transport and Economics

Chair of Business Administration, Transport and Logistics

Sven Mueller, M.A.Dresden University of TechnologyInstitute of Logistics and AviationChair of Business Administration, Transport and Logisticssven.mueller@tu-dresden.de

http://www.vbl-dresden.de