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China’s Overview. Year 2005. Contents. Demographical key points Macroeconomic key points Imports and exports Impact on global economy Key drivers for future growth. Demographical Key Points. Total population (in million). Year. Total population – 1,292,270,000 in 2003, whereas:
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China’s Overview Year 2005
Contents • Demographical key points • Macroeconomic key points • Imports and exports • Impact on global economy • Key drivers for future growth
Demographical Key Points Total population (in million) Year Total population – 1,292,270,000 in 2003, whereas: - Male: 665,560,000, or 51.5% - Female: 626,710,000 or 48.5% Remarks: China in this presentation refers to mainland China only, excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao.
Population by Region Population by province or city (in million, 2002) • Hehan is the largest province with population 96.13 million • Shanghai is the largest city with population 16.25 million
Distribution Map of China Giant City Beijing Shanghai Hong Kong Total 660 cities in China in 2002, whereas: • 10 cities with population 4 million and over • 23 cities with population 2-4 million • 138 cities with population 1-2 million • 279 cities with population 0.5-1 million • 171 cities with population 0.2-0.5 million • 39 cities with population under 0.2 million
Industrialization and Urbanization • Percentage of urban population: 19.2% in 1978; 40.5% in 2003 • Additional 1-1.5 %, or 12-18 million people from rural to urban per year • Every two years: an additional Australia
Population by Age Group • Aging population, 65 and over in 2003: 7.5% • By 2050, the elder (60 and over) will reach 400 million • Labor force reached 740 million in 2003; by 2020, will increase to 940 million
Population with Education Attainments • Junior colleague and above reached 55.54 million in 2002, or 5.25% of total population • Total 2110 universities & colleagues in China in 2003, total 11.87 million students whereas: • - 11.08 million: bachelor or diploma degree • - 651.3 thousand: master degree, and 136.7 thousand: doctor’s degree
Macroeconomic Key Points China GDP and GDP per capita • GDP reached USD 1414 billion in 2003, GDP PPP estimated at USD 6720 billion • Strong economic growth during 1978-2003, average GDP growth 9.4%, 2004: 9% • GDP per capita hit USD1095, average growth of GDP per capita 8.1% during 1978-2003
GDP by Industries USD, in billion • Industrial sector grew faster than GDP, which was high percent of GDP in 2003 at 52.94% • Service industry shared 32.5% of GDP in 2003, which was much lower than world average level at 64%, and lower than that of average developing countries at 45%
Economy by Cities with Population > 5m Top three giant cities in terms of economic scale in 2002: - Shanghai: USD 65.56 billion - Beijing: USD 38.94 billion - Guangzhou: USD 36.38 billion
Economy by Cities with Population 1-5m Top three cities in terms of GDP per capita in 2002: - Xiamen: USD 5730 (population1.37 million) - Shenzhen: USD 5576 (population 4.91 million) - Guangzhou: USD 5049 (population 7.21 million)
Imports & Exports USD, in billion • Total value of imports in 2003: USD 414.8 billion; that of exports: USD 4384 billion • Total value of imports and exports in 2004 reached USD 1.1 trillion, world’s third largest trading nation after U.S and Germany
Imports by Category of Commodities Mechanical and electrical products in 2002: USD 155.6 billion or 52.7% of total value of imports.
Imports by Main Countries or Region • Japan is the largest importing country to China, USD 74.2 billion in 2003 or 17.9% of total imports value • Top five importing countries or region to China: Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, U.S & Germany
Exports by Main Countries or Region • China largest exporting country - U.S: USD 92.5 billion in 2003, or 21.1% of total value • Top five exporting countries or region of China: U.S, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Germany
Total Amount of FDI Actually Used USD, in billion • Total amount of FDI actually used in 2004: USD 60.3 billion, increased by 12.7% than that of 2003 • Total accumulated amount of FDI actually used as at 2004: USD 561.77 billion
FDI by Main Countries or Region USD, in billion • Hong Kong: largest region investor to China – total actually used FDI as at 2003 accumulated to USD 222.59 billion or 44.39% of total FDI • Top five investors to China: Kong Hong, U.S, Japan, Taiwan and Virgin Island
Foreign Currency Reserves USD, in billion • Foreign currency reserves as at 2003: USD 403.3 billion • Foreign currency reserves as at Oct 2004: USD 540 billion, world’s second largest nation in terms of foreign currency reserves after Japan
Impacts on Global Economy • China: the sixth largest economic nation in the world in 2002. • Although China nominal DGP in 2002 was 3.9% of global economy, it contributed to 11.1% of global economy growth, and enjoyed fastest economic growth in the world
Percentage Distribution of Global Output % • China was once the largest economic nation in earlier19 century, dropped down sharply since 1830, lowest as 2.6% in 1913. • Percentage was increased to 3.9% in 2002, and it will be 25.6% of global output by 2020, become the world’s second largest economic nation
China-led Global Linkages % • Near100% of Taiwan export growth going to China in 2003 • 73% of Japan and 41% of South Korea export growth going to China in 2003 • China is the main engine to drive Asia economic growth
Share of US Import Market % • China’s share of US import market surpassed Japan in 2002 at 11.1% • In 2003, China surpassed Mexico and become US second largest importer after Canada
Share of US, Japan & EU Import Market % • China surpassed U.S in 2002 and became Japan’s largest importing nation • China surpassed Japan in 2003 and became EU’s second largest importing nation after U.S
Share of ASEAN Import Market % Shares of ASEAN import market in 2003: - Indonesia: 5.6%; Malaysia: 6.1%; Philip: 5.9%; Singapore: 6.7%; Thailand: 6.9%
Key Drivers of Future Growth • Autonomous domestic engine of growth: independent of external demand • Household, infrastructural development • Effect of privatization and urbanization • Strong FDI inflows and exports • High national saving rate, and high investment rate
Surging Material Demand % In 2003, China shares of world economy was 4%, but it consumed 25% of aluminium, 27% of steel, 30% of Iron, 31% of global coal and close to 41% of cement, which certainly drove the growth of relevant industries
National Saving Rate % • China enjoys very high national saving rate, 46% in 2003, which means high investment rate in China • Since 1990, China maintains national saving rate at about 40%.
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