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In this exclusive webinar, Sorbh Gupta, Fund Manager, Equity, Quantum Mutual Fund & Arvind Chari, CIO, Quantum Advisors will questions like how has Covid impacted Indiau2019s long term growth potential? What opportunities does Indiau2019s growth story create? How are equities poised to play Indiau2019s long-term growth story?
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10 Charts,1 GrowthStory:India Speakers: Mr.SorbhGupta–FundManager,Equity Mr.ArvindChari–CIO,QuantumAdvisors April 23,2021
30 GDP(nominal) GDP(real) 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 WhatDrivesGrowth? Dec-99 Oct-00 Aug-01 Jun-02 Apr-03 Feb-04 Dec-04 Oct-05 Aug-06 Jun-07 Apr-08 Feb-09 Dec-09 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 Oct-15 Aug-16 Jun-17 Apr-18 Feb-19 Dec-19 Oct-20 Source: CMIE,Quantum Research,QuarterlyDatatillDecember2020
16.0 14.0 ChinaGDP ChinaCapital India GDP IndiaCapital 14.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 10.0 8.0 Investmentsdrive Growth 8.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 %growth %growth 0.0 0.0 Source: TEDDatabase,Ason July2020.
Indiawillbea Large Partof TheGlobalEconomy:You CannotIgnoreIt Source:Quantum,AngusMaddison,UniversityofGroningen
World India China Indiaaverage6.1% Chinaaverage9.2% 14.0% 12.3% 11.6% 12.0% 9.9% 9.6% 9.5% 10.0% 8.8% 8.7% 8.5% % % 7.8% % % 8.0% 7.1 7.1% 6.7% India’sContinuedReformswillMakeIndiatheNextChina 6.5% 6.1 % 5.9 5.8 6.0% 5.4% 5.3% 5.2% % % 4.9 % % % % 4.0% 3.9 % 3.7% 3.5% 4.0% 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.0% 0.0% Jan 80- Oct Nov 84 - DecJan 90 - Jun 91 July 91 - May 84 Congress 89 Congress JanataDal* 96Congress Jun96-Mar 98DF* Apr98-Apr 99BJP* Jun99-MayJun04-MayJun09-May 04 NDA* 09 UPA* 14UPA* Jun14-Dec 20NDA** RealGDPGrowth Source:Worldbank,RBIandwww.parliamentofindia.nic.inasofDecember 2020.Pleasenotethatdataused forWorldGDPfor2020isamedian EstimatesinceWorldBankdata isnotyetavailableandIndiaGDPdataisgovernmentssecond advanceestimatereleasedattheendofSeptember.
GrowingIncomesCreateOpportunities Source:MorganStanleyresearch
CumulativeForeignDirectInvestments (FDI)USDBillion CumulativeForeignPortfolioInflows(FPI) intoEquityandDebt,USDBillion 3,500.0 1,000.0 China India China India 3,000.0 800.0 2,500.0 TheseOpportunitiesDrawInvestors& Investments 600.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 400.0 1,000.0 200.0 500.0 0.0 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source:WorldBank
India’sEconomicGrowthReflectedinCorporateEarnings Source:%changeinINR, CLSAandBloombergFinanceL.P.,asofJanuary31,2021.CY21 andCY22areestimatenumbers.
GDP(nominal) SensexEPS SENSEXIndex 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 300 100 India’s EconomicGrowthReflectedinStockMarketReturns Mar-03 Nov-03 Jul-04 Mar-05 Nov-05 Jul-06 Mar-07 Nov-07 Jul-08 Mar-09 Nov-09 Jul-10 Mar-11 Nov-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Nov-13 Jul-14 Mar-15 Nov-15 Jul-16 Mar-17 Nov-17 Jul-18 Mar-19 Nov-19 Source:%changeinINR, CLSAandBloombergFinanceL.P.,asofJanuary31, 2021.CY 21andCY22areestimatenumbers Pastperformancemayormaynotsustainedinfuture
Basedon HistoricalData:AsimpleEquityMarketReturnAssumption Source:RBI,CMIE,QuantumEstimates
Whatwillbethe impactofResurgenceofCovid-19onEquities? LargeCapsorMid/SmallCaps,whereto invest? WillValueStylePerform? Whyis diversification Important? Equities:Questionsin Investor’sMind
Covid-19:SecondWave orTsunami Source:JohnHopkinsUniversity
Thelockdownsarelesserstringentandmorelocalized thistime CorporateBalance-Sheetare better.The focus hasbeen ondebtreductionandliquidity Lastoneyearhasbeenallabout costcontrolandbusinesscontinuity Pvt. Banks& NBFC’s haveraisedcapitalandarebestcapitalizedinlast10years As GlobalRecoveryisintact, exportcompaniesandcommodityproducersarecomfortably placed Covid-19:Lockdowndéjàvu‘ThisTimeisDifferent’ HowisCorporateIndiaPlaced?
LockdownsNeedtobeContained:India’sBiggestRisk–Jobs&IncomeLockdownsNeedtobeContained:India’sBiggestRisk–Jobs&Income
SalesGrowth FixedAssets 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% -10% SmallerCompaniesare LosingMarketShare 0% -20% -10% -30% -20% -40% -50% -30% -60% -40% Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Top3Deciles Bottom3Deciles Top3Deciles Bottom3Deciles CMIE-EconomicOutlook,DataasonDecember2020
BusinessStrength ofLargerCompaniesReflectinEquityReturnsOver LongTerm Pastperformancemayormaynotsustainedinfuture
SpikingPER OverstatesValuationGivenTheJune Quarter’sGapDown Source:BloombergFinance L.P.,asMarch,2020 PastPerformancemayormaynotbesustainedinfuture.
Valuevs.Growth (2000-2010) Source: Bloomberg.Past Performancemayormaynotsustainedinfuture.
Valuevs.Growth (2010-20) Source: Bloomberg.Past Performancemayormaynotsustainedinfuture.
Last 10 yearsare characterisedbylowglobal growth,lowinflation&lowinterestrates Fewcompanieswhich showedgrowth,werechasedbyliquiditymaking themarketpolarised 2000-10vs. 2010-2020:How Differentare theMacroVariables Source:WorldBank,Reuters.Pastperformancemayormaynotsustainedinfuture.
Broadbasedeconomicrecoveryleadingtoearningupgrades. Normalinflation&interestratecyclewillbethekey. 2021:HowThingsStackUpForValueStrategy Source: Bloomberg.Past Performancemayormaynotsustainedinfuture.
Diversification: Different Styles Perform In Different Macro & Market Environment Theinputdatahasbeensourcedfromvalueresearch.comforcalculatingannualreturns(thisis datasourceandnotmethodologyforcalculation ofreturns) Theannualperiodfrom CY16toCY20is31stDecemberending. TheYTDdata is31stMarch2021ending. Pastperformancemayormaynotbesustainedinfuture.
Therehavebeenyearswhenequity markets hadabrilliantrun,yearswhenonlybondswere dependable,andyearswhengoldshinedthe brightest,andtheseperiodsdid nottypicallyoverlap AssetClassesGrow&ContractinCycles Pastperformancemayormaynotsustainedinfuture Thechartranksthebesttoworstperformingindexespercalendaryearfromtoptobottom *DataasofMarch2021 Pastperformancemayormaynotbesustainedinfuture. BasedonS&PBSESensex;DomesticGoldpricesand CRISILCompositeBondFundIndex Source:Bloomberg Imagine someone holding an all equity portfolio in 2008, or holding none in the equityrallythatfollowed?
ValueOrientedEquityDiversifiedFundsinceMarch 2006 Wellbalancedportfolio:typically25to40stocks, acrosssectors InstrumentalforLongTermFinancialGoalslikeRetirement,Child’sEducation,Child’sMarriage& WealthCreation Adisciplinedresearchandinvestmentprocess Lowportfolioturnover:BuyafterConviction,Hold it for long Holdssharesorcash:Noderivatives,No hedging QuantumLong TermEquityValueFund–AMusthaveEquityDiversifiedFund
Wintercrop(Rabi) productionhasbeenrobust& monsoonisexpectedtobenormal.Someofthe portfoliostocks arewellpositionedto benefitfrom strongagri& ruraleconomy Highqualitystocksavailableatreasonablevaluationswereaddedtothe portfoliointhe correctionin February& March2020 HigherweightinNBFC,ConsumerdiscretionaryandIT Portfoliostockslookcomfortableafterstresstest- havestrongbalance-sheetorstrongparentageto survive the downturn Existingcash holdingwillbe usedto addnewnamesin caseof correction PortfolioPositioning
Boom: • Real economicactivity continue torevive&corporateearningupgradehappen • Real estaterevives–stampdutycut,lowerinterestratesspurrealestatedemand • FactoriesrelocatefromChinatoIndia • Foreignflows–FDI+FIIdrivenbyhigheryieldsand fastergrowth • Bust: • PoorGovernmentPolicy • Resurgence inCovidcases,Poorexecution ofVaccine rollout • RisingInflation coulddampen DemandRecovery 2021 –Boom&Bust,EvenlyPoised
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Financial • JAMTrinity • Fin-Tech • Payments • New Banklicenses • Governance • Bankruptcy Code • Tax and legislativeReforms • Land&Labor • IndiaInc. • FDI • Privatization • PLI • Taxcuts India’sRecentReformsWillDrive Growth
In this exclusivewebinar,Sorbh&Arvindwillanswerbig questionslike: • HasCovidImpactedIndia’sLongTermGrowth Potential? • WhatOpportunitiesDoesIndia’sGrowthStoryCreate? • AreEquitiesTheBestWayToPlayIndia’sLong-Term • GrowthStory? IncreaseJABStosaveJOBS