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Hurricane Readiness Timeline Tools Paul Hastings ImpactWeather, Inc. (877)792-3225 phastings@impactweather.com Two Basic Strategies of Hurricane Plans: Maintain Continuity of Operations Provide for an orderly, safe, and appropriate shut-in of operations

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Hurricane Readiness

Timeline Tools

Paul Hastings

ImpactWeather, Inc.

(877)792-3225

phastings@impactweather.com

slide2
Two Basic Strategies of Hurricane Plans:

Maintain Continuity of Operations

Provide for an orderly, safe, and appropriate shut-in of operations

slide3
Characteristics of most successful hurricane plans:

Most utilize a phased escalation process

Complexity and costs increase with escalation

Designed and driven by risk management mindset

slide5

Strategic Question:

How to objectively trigger escalation from one Phase to the next?

slide6
New TropicsWatch tools for 2006 that can serve as communications tools & escalation triggers:

HRI – Hurricane Risk Indicator

WCS – Worst Case Scenario

HSI – Hurricane Severity Index

PWI – Probability of Wind Impact

slide7

Hurricane Risk Indicator

  • Alerts you to a possible hurricane threat at your location (within next 6 to 10 days)
  • Uses a simple on/off indicator
  • Early warning
    • For storms before they develop
    • For storms that will take more than 5 days to reach your area
slide8
When is the earliest tropical storm force winds could arrive?

Allows you to see how much time you have for different phases of preparation / shutdown

Assumes by default:

storm movement is directly toward your location

Forward speed = maximum forecasted

Intensity = maximum forecasted

Wind Field Size = maximum quadrant applied to all quadrants

Worst Case Scenario

slide9

Worst Case Scenario – Graphical Output

Arrival times for 25, 39, 58, 74, 100 mph, max winds, and center of storm

slide10

What Was Katrina’s

Saffir-Simpson Classification

at Landfall?

Category 3

Hurricane Katrina

3:15PM CDT Sun. Aug. 28

slide11
HSI – Hurricane Severity Index

Useful in timeline scenarios for factoring in the response by the community to a hurricane threat

slide12

Hurricane Severity Index (HSI)

A new way for classifying hurricanes that takes into consideration more than just maximum surface winds:

  • Size (1-25 points)
    • Examines the total coverage of the 35+, 50+, 65+, and 87+ knot wind fields
  • Intensity (1-25 points)
    • Points assigned using the exponential relationship between wind speed and the force exerted on an object

The Result: A 50-point scale that better represents a tropical cyclone’s true destructive potential – the Hurricane Severity Index (HSI)

Developed by:Chris Hebert and Bob Weinzapfel

slide13

Severe DamageLarge Area

Saffir-Simpson Category

MinimalDamageSmall Area

slide15

Same Intensity

Saffir-Simpson Category

slide16
PWI – Probability of Wind Impact

PWI displays the probability of a given location receiving a certain threshold of wind.

Probabilities are generated for 5 wind fields:

25 mph

39 mph

58 mph

74 mph

100 mph

slide17

Gaussian or “Normal” Distribution Curve

50%

50%

Forecast Track in Center

75% Cone Area

slide21

Probability of Wind Impact – Corpus Christi, TX

Rita - Advisory 24 - Valid Fri, Sep 23 9PM CDT - hours before landfall

slide22

Probability of Wind Impact – Port Arthur, TX

Rita - Advisory 24 - Valid Fri, Sep 23 9PM CDT - hours before landfall

slide24

1995 - 2005

185 NS / 90 H / 45 IH / 6 Cat 5

slide25
Questions?

Paul Hastings

ImpactWeather, Inc.

(877)792-3225

phastings@impactweather.com