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NEEDS Research Stream 1c “New Externalities associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy”. OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE UP TO 2030. Manfred Hafner Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie. NEEDS Forum 2 Energy Supply Security – Present and Future Issues

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oil and gas supply demand scenarios for europe up to 2030

NEEDS Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy”

OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE UP TO 2030

Manfred Hafner

Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie

NEEDS Forum 2

Energy Supply Security – Present and Future Issues

Krakow, 5-6 July 2007

research stream 1c new externalities associated to the extraction and transport energy
Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to the extraction and transport energy”
  • OIL
  • NATURAL GAS
  • ELECTRICITY
  • HYDROGEN
  • Supply/Demand scenarios
  • Flows & Routes
  • Critical passages
  • New technology & regulation
  • Burdens
  • Impacts
  • Risk Analysis
  • Economic valuation
slide3

N

NE

SE

S

2005e*: Gas Supply to EU-25

2005e

Cons. 502 bcm

Imports 290 bcm

Gas Supplies to EU-15

78 bcm Norway

27%

126 bcm Russia

43%

Russia

48100

Norway

3000

Netherlands

1800

U.K. 700

Turkmenistan

2860

Iran

23000

2,000 km

7 bcm Gulf

2%

4,000 km

Qatar

14400

6,000 km

Algeria

4520

Libya

1310

Egypt

1660

Oman

800

Abu Dhabi

6000

SEMCs 68 bcm (23%)

56 bcm Algeria

6 bcm Libya

6 bcm Egypt

Other Africa

11 bcm Nigeria (4%)

Trinidad

330

Venezuela

4000

Nigeria

3510

* first 2005 estimates

Source: OME, May 2006

slide4

=> Driven mainly by power generation

707

2.8%/y

287

423

126

180

1.2%/y

125

1.1%/y

172

240

EU-25 Gas Demand (by sector)

*Baseline scenario ‘’European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004’’

sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 20306

District heat

& other

6%

Households

18%

Services

6%

Industrial

sector

13%

Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030

Primarily competing against oil and electricity for space heating.

Substitution effect not as strong as income effect

High energy prices more likely to induce energy efficiency improvements

sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 20307

Power sector

57%

Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030

Competing against coal, nuclear & renewables

Substitution effect stronger than income effect

Largest source of gas demand growth is the most sensitive to higher energy prices!!

eu 25 natural gas imports
EU-25 Natural Gas Imports

* Strongly increasing gas import requirements* High uncertainty due to development in: - demand - domestic production

Source: European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004

main gas regions for european supply
MAIN GAS REGIONS FOR EUROPEAN SUPPLY
  • NORTH AFRICA :
      • Algeria, Libya, Egypt
  • NORTH SEA :
      • Norway
  • RUSSIA
  • THE CASPIAN AREA AND CENTRAL ASIA:
      • Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
  • THE GULF :
      • Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Saudi-Arabia, UAE, Yemen
  • WEST AFRICA :
      • Nigeria, Angola
  • SOUTH AMERICA :
      • Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela
future gas export potential for europe

304

304

304

bcm

bcm

bcm

2005

2005

2005

447

447

447

bcm

bcm

bcm

2010

2010

2010

619

619

619

bcm

bcm

bcm

2020

2020

2020

695

695

695

bcm

bcm

bcm

2030

2030

2030

NORWAY

NORWAY

207

207

100

100

95

95

94

94

81

81

RUSSIA and Central Asia

RUSSIA

196

196

166

166

139

139

1

1

T&T + VENEZ.

T&T + VENEZ.

6

6

6

6

6

6

AZERB

AZERB

.

.

13

13

13

13

TURKMENISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

W. AFRICA

W. AFRICA

35

35

5

5

20

20

35

35

IRAQ

IRAQ

IRAN

IRAN

11

11

21

21

57

57

81

81

110

110

115

115

38

38

45

45

5

5

12

12

25

25

38

38

ALGERIA

ALGERIA

5

5

23

23

28

28

28

28

7

7

44

44

68

68

88

88

LIBYA

LIBYA

EGYPT

EGYPT

QATAR/ UAE/ OMAN/ YEMEN

QATAR/ UAE/ OMAN/ YEMEN

Future gas export potential for Europe
slide12

LNG (G.Touil)

5 bcm

Algeria : Gas Export Projects

Algeria-Italy via

Sardinia Corsica

(Galsi)

8 to 16 bcm

ITALIY

PORTUGAL

SPAIN

Algeria-Italy

Enrico Mattei Gasline

(EMG, ex-Transmed)

25 to 31 bcm

Algeria-Spain

(Medgaz)

8 to 16 bcm

LNG Algeria

27 to 38 bcm

SICILY

Skikda

ALGER

Arzew

BeniSaf

EMG

Pedro Duran Farell Gasline

(PDFG, ex-GME)

11.5 to 18-20 bcm

PDFG

TUNISIA

Hassi R’Mel

MOROCCO

-

-

Algeria Export Gas Capacities

ALGERIA

R.Nouss

Hamra

Tegentour

TFT

Reg

Ohanet

In Amenas

Ahnet

In Salah

Gasline Projects

Existing Gaslines

Existing LNG Plant

LNG Plant Projects

Source: OME, May 2006

TSGP

Nigeria-Algeria to Europe

slide13

Gasline Projects

Existing Gaslines

Existing LNG Plant

LNG Plant Projects

LIBYA : Gas Export Projects

ITALIY

SPAIN

PORTUGAL

EMG,

ex-Transmed

SICILE

Skikda

ALGER

Arzew

Libya-Italy

(Greenstream)

TUNISIA

ALGERIA

8 to 16-24 bcm

Bouri

LNG Libya

1 to 9-14 bcm

TRIPOLI

Libya-Tunisia

2 bcm

MOROCCO

Hassi R’Mel

Marsat El Braga

-

Libya Gas Export Capacities (bcm)

Bassin de Ghadames

Hatiba

Zelten

LIBYA

Wafa

Source: OME, May 2006

slide14

Gasline Projects

Existing Gaslines

Existing LNG Plant

LNG Plant Projects

Egypt : Gas Export Projects

Damietta

SEGAS (UFG)

2x6.9 bcm

Idku

ELNG (BG)

3x4.8 bcm

Trans Machrek Pipeline

3 to 10 bcm

Taba

Capacities of Egypt Gas Export Projects (bcm)

Source : Petroleum Economist & OME, May 2006

* these figures refer to possible projects but which are not counted in the total

slide15

Shtokmanovskoye

Existing Gas Pipeline

Gas Pipeline Project

Snohvit

Shtockman LNG

23 bcm

Snohvit LNG

6-11 bcm

Haltenbanken

Asgard fields/ ATS

21 bcm

FINLAND

ATS

Ormen Lange/Britpipe

22 bcm

SWEDEN

Ormen Lange

NORWAY

Murchison

Troll

Eastern axe 45 bcm

Norpipe 11 bcm

Europipe I 13 bcm

Europipe II 21 bcm

Frigg/Vesterled

13 bcm

Frigg

HELSINKI

STOCKHOLM

TALLINN

Nord Stream

27-55 bcm

Europipe II

Western axe 28 bcm

Zeepipe 13 bcm

Franpipe 15 bcm

DENMARK

Europipe I

NEGP

COPENHAGEN

Easington

Norpipe

Zeepipe

Franpipe

Yamal - Europe

Bacton

Balgzand

Isle of Grain

5/10

BBL

20 bcm

SCANDINAVIAN GAS NETWORK:EXISTING & PLANNED GAS ROUTES

Norwegian Gas Export Capacity (bcm/yr)

Source: OME, May 2006

slide16

RUSSIA : EXISTING & PLANNED GAS ROUTES

Yamal LNG

25 bcm

YAMAL

Shtokmanovskoye

Bovanenko

BARENTS SEA

Urengoy

TYUMEN

Shtockman LNG

23 bcm

Shtokmanovskoye Europe Baltic Pipeline

18-35 bcm

RUSSIA

Northern Route

STOCKHOLM

HELSINKI

St Petersburg

TALLINN

Central Route

BALTIC SEA

Nord Stream

Gas Pipeline

27-55 bcm

Yamal I- Europe

29 to 32 bcm

Yamal II - Europe

+32 bcm

Souhern Route

MOSCOW

Yamal - Europe

Kondratki

MINSK

WARSAW

Aleksandrov-Gay

KAZAKHSTAN

Novopskov

Uzhgorod

UKRAINE

New Transit Line through Ukraine 28 bcm

Blue Stream 16 bcm

Izmail

CAPACITY OF RUSSIAN GAS EXPORT INFRASTRUCTURE to EUROPE

* This capacity is less likely and has not been included in the Total.

Source: OME, May 2006

azerbaijan
AZERBAIJAN

OME, Sept 2005

slide19

South Eastern European gas pipeline projects

Nabucco

South Stream

Blue Stream

Nabucco

TGI

slide20

Cap. (Mt/y)

Das Island (1, 2 &3)

5.7

Das Island (Tr.4)

3.3

Gulf: LNG Export Projects

bcm/yr

ISTANBUL

Marmara

Izmir

Ankara

Kayseri

TURKEY

Ceyhan

Aleppo

DAMASCUS

Homs

BAGHDAD

Alexandria

Port Said

Amman

Cap. (Mt/y)

Iran LNG (BP/Reliance India)

9

Basra

Cap. (Mt/y)

Pars LNG (Total/Petronas)

10

KUWAIT

Qatargas I (tr.1, 2&3)

9.6

NIOC LNG (BG/ENI)

9

Persian LNG (Shell/Repsol) 9

Assaluyeh

Qatargas II Tr4&5 (ExxonM to UK)

15.6

Qatargas III Tr7(Conocco to US)

7.5

SAUDI ARABIA

North Field

Qatargas IV Tr8(Conocco to US)

7.8

Rasgas I (tr.1&2)

6.6

BAHRAIN

Dubai

Rasgas II (tr. 3 &4)

9.4

Dolphin Project

QATAR

Das Island

ABU DHABI

Rasgas II (new tr. 5)

4.7

Yanbu

Sohar

RIYADH

UAE

Rasgas II Tr6-7(ExxonM to US)

15.6

MUSCAT

OMAN

Sur

Source: OME, May 2006

Cap. (Mt/y)

Oman LNG (Tr.1& 2)

7.0

Oman LNG (Tr.3)

3.3

slide22

N

NE

SE

S

2005

Consumption 670 Mt

Gross Imports 627 Mt

Oil Supplies to EU25

99 Mt Norway

16%

222 Mt Russia

36%

137 Mt Gulf

22%

17 Mt Amer.

4%

SEMCs 107 Mt (18%)

29 Mt Algeria

65 Mt Libya

3 Mt Egypt

10 Mt Syria

Other Africa

44 Mt (7%)

Source: OME, 2006

eu 25 oil imports
EU-25 Oil Imports

Source: European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004

imports to europe

Imports to Europe

Seaborne trade to increase

from 85% to 89%

middle east

Middle East

Qatar

Kuwait

slide34

Major EU Crude Oil Import Routes, 2030 (Mt), REF CASE

AtlanticMed.

Export

Import

Pipeline

5

8

12

84

0.2

61

3

3

74

9

82

65

30

23

33

A

Caspian

65

21

35

23

65

M

54

14

25

1

L. America

9

13

0.2

75

Gulf

56

55

105

16

Other Africa

23

hot spots the ras tanura rotterdam route

Gibraltar Strait

Andalusia (Spain)

Population(2005):7552978

Area: 87599kmq

Tangier-Tétouan (Morocco)

Population(2005): 2470372

Area: 11570 kmq

Sicily Strait

Sicily

Population (2004): 5013081

Area: 25710 kmq

Nabeul Governorate (Tunisia)

Population (2004): 694000

Area: 2788 kmq

Hot spots: the Ras Tanura –Rotterdam route

Primorsk

Leningrad Oblast (Russia)

Population (2002): 1669205

Area: 84500 kmq

French Finistére

Bretagne (France)

Population (2004): 3020885

Area: 27208 kmq

Dover Strait

Nord-Pas-de-Calais (France)

Populaion (2004): 4027706

Area: 12414 kmq

South East England

Population (2004): 8095261

Area: 19096 kmq

Spanish Finistere

Galicia (Spain)

Population (2004): 2706126

Area: 29574 kmq

Ras Tanura

Eastern Province (Saudi Arabia)

Population (2004): 3360157

Area: 710000 kmq

Suez Canal

Egypt Regions around the Suez Canal

Population (2004): 1816200

Area: 22321 kmq

h ot spots the novorossisk augusta route

Crete

Population (2004): 601000

Area: 8336 kmq

Hot spots: the Novorossisk – Augusta route

Novorossisk

Kraj di Krasnodar (Russia)

Population (2004): 5125221

Area: 83600 kmq

Augusta

Sicily

Population (2004): 5013081

Area: 25710 kmq

Bosphorus

Istambul (Turkey)

Populaion (2005): 10018735

Area: 5170 kmq

Kocaeli

(Turkey)

Population (2005): 1206085

Area: 3635 kmq

Aegean sea

Northern Aegean

Population (2004): 206000

Area: 3836 kmq

Southern Aegean

Population (2004):302000

Area: 5286 kmq

research stream 1c new externalities associated to the extractions and transport energy
Research Stream 1c“New Externalities associated to the extractions and transport energy”
  • Results of externality values associated to the fuel chain up to the EU border ready by September 2007
    • Operational externalities (extraction and transport)
    • Accidental/probabilistic externalities (extraction and transport)
  • The NEEDS project does not specifically target “security of supply” issues, but rather “environmental externalities”
slide41

WP2. Value of energy security

Estimation of consumers’ risk aversion and willingness to pay for security

WP5. Models and tools by energy source

5.1. Oil

- External supply

- Internal supply

- Geopolitical risks

- Technical risks

- Economic & regulatory risks

5.2. Natural gas

WP3. Long term policy lines

Qualitative analysis of energy policy options and scenarios for the EU

5.3. Coal

5.4. Nuclear

5.5. Renewable energy sources

  • WP4. Quantitative global models
  • Long term energy scenarios based on policy lines
  • Adaptation of the POLES model to include risk assessment
  • Development of energy risks assessment model (ERA)
  • Quantitative analysis of policy recommendations

5.6. Electricity

5.7. Impact of accidents and terrorist threats

5.8. Demand dimension of energy security

WP6. Results and policy recommendations

SECURE project proposal FP7: Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications

WP1. Methodological developments

Definition of concepts and general methodology of the project

WP7. Stakeholders consultations and dissemination