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European Monetary Union Prof. Dr. Jovan Pejkovski Since 1 January 2002, more than 300 million European citizens have been using the euro as a normal part of daily life.

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slide2
Since 1 January 2002, more than 300 million European citizens have been using the euro as a normal part of daily life.
  • It took only 10 years to get from the Treaty of Maastricht (February 1992), enshrining the principle of a single European currency, to the point where euro notes and coins were circulating in 12 EU countries.
slide3
This is a remarkably short time to carry through an operation that is unique in world history.
  • The euro has replaced currencies that were, for many of the countries concerned, centuries-old symbols and instruments of their national sovereignty.
slide4
In doing so, the new currency has moved Europe considerably closer to economic union. It has also given EU citizens a much clearer sense of sharing a common European identity.
  • With euro cash in their pockets, people can travel and shop throughout most of the Union without having to change money.
slide5
How was the idea of a single European currency born?
  • As long ago as 1970, the Werner Report, named after the then Prime Minister of Luxembourg, proposed a convergence between the economies and currencies of the six EEC countries.
  • The first step in this direction was not taken until March 1979, when the European Monetary System (EMS) was set up.
slide6
The EMS was designed to reduce variations in the exchange rates between the currencies of the member states.
  • It allowed them fluctuation margins of between 2.25% and 6%. But its mechanisms were weakened by a series of crises caused by the instability of the US dollar and the weakness of some currencies that became prey to speculators, especially at times of international tension.
slide7
The need for an area of monetary stability was felt increasingly as Europe made progress in completing the single market.
  • The Single European Act, signed in February 1986, logically implied convergence between European economies and the need to limit fluctuations in the exchange rates between their currencies.
slide8
How could a single market, based on the free movement of people, goods and capital, be expected to work properly if the currencies involved could be devalued?
  • Devaluing a currency would give it an unfair competitive advantage and lead to distortions in trade.
slide9
In June 1989, at the Madrid European Council, Commission President Jacques Delors put forward a plan and a timetable for bringing about economic and monetary union (EMU).
  • This plan was later enshrined in the Treaty signed at Maastricht in February 1992.
  • The Treaty laid down a set of criteria to be met by the member states if they were to qualify for EMU.
slide10
These criteria were all about economic and financial discipline:

--curbing inflation,

--cutting interest rates,

--reducing budget deficits to a maximum of 3% of GDP,

--limiting public borrowing to a maximum of 60% of GDP and

--stabilising the currency’s exchange rate.

slide11
In protocols annexed to the Treaty, Denmark and the United Kingdom reserved the right not to move to the third stage of EMU (i.e. adoption of the euro) even if they met the criteria.
  • This was called ‘opting out’. Following a referendum, Denmark announced that it did not intend to adopt the euro. Sweden too expressed reservations.
slide12
There would have to be some way of ensuring the stability of the single currency, because inflation makes the economy less competitive, undermines people’s confidence and reduces their purchasing power.
  • So an independent EuropeanCentral Bank (ECB) was set up, based in Frankfurt, and given the task of setting interest rates to maintain the value of the euro.
slide13
In Amsterdam, in June 1997, the European Council adopted two important resolutions.
  • The first, known as the ‘stability and growth pact’, committed the countries concerned to maintain their budgetary discipline. They would all keep a watchful eye on one another and not allow any of them to run up excessive deficits.
slide14
The second resolution was about economic growth.
  • It announced that the member states and the Commission were firmly committed to making sure employment remained at the top of the EU’s agenda.
slide15
In Luxembourg, in December 1997, the European Council adopted a further resolution – on coordinating economic policies.
  • This included the important decision that "ministers of the States participating in the euro area may meet informally among themselves to discuss issues connected with their shared specific responsibilities for the single currency".
slide16
The EU’s political leaders thus opened the way to even closer ties between countries that adopted the euro – ties that went beyond monetary union to embrace financial, budgetary, social and fiscal policies.
slide17
Progress in achieving EMU has made it easier to open up and complete the single market.
  • In spite of the turbulent world situation (with stock market crises, terrorist attacks and the war in Iraq), the euro area has enjoyed the kind of stability and predictability that investors and consumers need.
slide18
European citizens’ confidence in the euro was boosted by the successful and unexpectedly swift introduction of coins and banknotes during the first half of 2002.
  • People appreciate being able to shop around more easily, now they can directly compare prices in different European countries.
slide19
The euro has become the world’s second most important currency.
  • It is increasingly being used for international payments and as a reserve currency, alongside the US dollar.
slide20
Integration between financial markets in the euro area has speeded up, with mergers taking place not only between stockbroking firms but also between stock exchanges.
  • An EU action plan for financial services is due to be implemented by 2006.
step by step to the euro
STEP BY STEP TO THE EURO
  • 7 February 1992: the Treaty of Maastricht is signed
  • The Treaty on European Union and Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is agreed in Maastricht in December 1991.
  • It is signed in February 1992 and comes into force in November 1993.
  • Under this treaty, the national currencies will be replaced by a single European currency – provided the countries concerned meet a number of economic conditions.
slide22
The most important of the ‘Maastricht criteria’ is that the country’s budget deficit cannot exceed 3% of its gross domestic product (GDP) for more than a short period. Public borrowing must not exceed 60% of GDP.
  • Prices and interest rates must also remain stable over a long period, as must exchange rates between the currencies concerned.
slide23
January 1994: the European Monetary Institute is set up
  • The European Monetary Institute (EMI) is set up and new procedures are introduced for monitoring EU countries’ economies and encouraging convergence between them.
slide24
June 1997: the Stability and Growth Pact
  • The Amsterdam European Council agrees the ‘stability and growth pact’ and the new exchange rate mechanism (a re-born EMS) designed to ensure stable exchange rates between the euro and the currencies of EU countries that remain outside the euro area.
  • A design is also agreed for the ‘European’ side of euro coins.
slide25
May 1998: eleven countries qualify for the euro
  • Meeting in Brussels from 1 to 3 May 1998, the Union’s political leaders decide that 11 EU countries meet the requirements for membership of the euro area.
  • They announce the definitive exchange rates between the participating currencies.
slide26
1 January 1999: birth of the euro
  • On 1 January 1999, the 11 currencies of the participating countries disappear and are replaced by the euro, which thus becomes the shared currency of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands Portugal and Spain. (Greece joins them on 1 January 2001).
slide27
From this point onwards, the European Central Bank takes over from the EMI and is responsible for monetary policy, which is defined and implemented in euro.
  • Exchange operations in euro begin on 4 January 1999, at a rate of about €1 to 1.18 US dollars.
  • This is the start of the transitional period that will last until 31 December 2001.
i revocably fixed euro conversion rates
1 Euro

= 40.3399 Belgian francs

= 1.95583 Deutsche Mark

= 340.750 Greek drachmas

= 166.386 Spanish pesetas

= 6.55957 French francs

= 0.787564 Irish pounds

= 1,936.27 Italian lire

= 40.3399 Luxembourg francs

= 2.20371 Dutch guilders

= 13.7603 Austrian schillings

= 200.482 Portuguese escudos

= 5.94573 Finnish markkas

Irevocably fixed euro conversion rates
slide29
1 January 2002: euro coins and notes are introduced
  • On 1 January 2002, euro-denominated notes and coins are put into circulation. This is the start of the period during which national currency notes and coins are withdrawn from circulation. The period ends on 28 February 2002.
  • Thereafter, only the euro is legal tender in the euro area countries.
slide30
Established by the EC Treaty, the ECB is embedded in the specific legal andinstitutional framework of the European Community.
  • What distinguishestherefore the euro and the ECB from a national currency and a national centralbank is their supranational status within a community of sovereign states.
slide31
Unlikecomparable central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve System or the Bank ofJapan, which are the monetary authorities of their respective national states, theECB is a central authority that conducts monetary policy for an economic areaconsisting of 12 otherwise largely autonomous states.
  • Another specific feature ofEMU is the fact that the euro area does not encompass all EU Member Statessince the realisation of EMU follows an approach of differentiated integration.
slide32
QUESTIONS:
  • What is EMU?
  • Gains and losses
  • Rules of EMU
  • Past: The road to EMU
  • Present: The first five and half years 1999-2004
  • Future: Risk and reforms
what is emu
What is EMU?
  • Common currency:
    • From 1 January 1999 irrevocably fixed exchange rates between 11, now 12, countries, ”The ins”
    • Common currency (notes and coins) and unit of account, the euro, from 2002
  • Common monetary policy governed by European Central Bank in Frankfurt (ECB) from 1 Jan. 1999
three outs
Three ”outs”
  • Exempted in Maastricht treaty:
    • Denmark, United Kingdom
  • “Not qualified”:
    • Sweden (not in ERM): 56 % No-vote in fall 2003
economic gain long run
Economic gain (long-run)
  • Trade frictions ¯ Þ Trade ­Þ Increased specialization Þ higher productivity through comparative advantage and large scale production Þ GDP per capita ­Þ Welfare ­
  • Large gain if:
    • Nation is trade dependent (small)
  • EMU helps creating inner market
loss short run
Loss (short-run)
  • No national monetary policy to counteract nation-specific (asymmetric) shock
  • Small loss if:
    • 1) Small risk for asymmetric shock
    • or 2) easy adjustment to asymmetric shock:
      • Flexible labor markets, or
      • Large scope for international labor mobility, or
      • Efficient fiscal policy
rules
Rules
  • 1. Rules for ECB (Maastricht, 1991)
  • 2. Stability and growth pact, SGP, 1997
ecb goal
ECB goal
  • Intermediate, legal goal: Price stability, defined as:
    • Between 0 and 2 per cent inflation
  • Wider goal of EMU: increased welfare through 1) higher long-run growth (efficiency) and 2) more macroeconomic stability
slide39
Having adopted the euro as their single currency, the EU Member States that arepart of the euro area have relinquished their monetary sovereignty.
  • The ECB, asthe core of the newly established central banking system called the EuropeanSystem of Central Banks (ESCB), has taken on responsibility for the monetarypolicy in the euro area.
slide40
Under the EC Treaty, the ESCB is entrusted with carrying out central bankingfunctions for the euro.
  • However, as the ESCB has no legal personality of its own,and because of differentiated levels of integration in EMU, the real actors are theECB and the NCBs of the euro area countries.
  • They exercise the core functionsof the ESCB under the name “Eurosystem”.
european system of central banks escb
European System of Central Banks – ESCB
  • National central banks (NCB)
  • European central bank (ECB)
  • ESCB governed by:
    • The General Council of the ESCB
    • The Governing Council of the ESCB
    • The Executive Board of the ECB
the general council of the escb
The General Council of the ESCB
  • 25 national central bank governors in EU and chairman and vice chairman of ECB executive board
  • Surveillance of the economy in non-EMU countries
  • Prepares the introduction of the euro in the new countries
the governing council of the escb
The Governing Council of the ESCB
  • National central bank governors in the 12 EMU countries and the members of the executive board.
  • Council meets every other week to decide monetary policy
  • Must work for price stability in the whole euro area: average inflation weighted by country size
voting at ecb council
Voting at ECB Council
  • Board exclusive right to formulate propositions to vote on
  • Board votes to stabilize EMU average.
  • 6+3 wins: EMU average outcome of voting
    • (average wins over median vote)
independence of governing board
Independence of governing board
  • Members
    • Can not receive directives
    • Directors have long (8 year) mandates
    • Can not be reelected
  • Motivation for independence:
    • Credibility of low inflation high since short-term motivation to increase inflation to achieve a) lower unemployment or b) reduce value of government debt is minimized
  • ECB modeled after Bundesbank
control of ecb
Control of ECB
  • Reports to European Parliament
  • Press conferences
  • No minutes published
slide47
There are three main political and economic reasons why a system wasestablished to carry out central bank functions for the euro, and not a singlecentral bank:
  • 1. The establishment of a single central bank for the whole euro area (possiblyconcentrating central bank business in one single place) would not have beenacceptable on political grounds.
slide48
2. The Eurosystem approach builds on the experience of the NCBs, preserves theirinstitutional set-up, infrastructure and perational capabilities and expertise;
  • moreover, NCBs continue to perform some non-Eurosystem-related tasks.
slide49
3. Given the large geographic area of the euro area, it was deemed appropriate togive credit institutions an access point to central banking in each participatingMember State.
  • Given the large number of nations and cultures in the euro area,domestic institutions (rather than a supranational one) were considered bestplaced to serve as points of access to the Eurosystem.
slide50
2.3.1 Basic tasks of the Eurosystem

Article 105(2) of the EC Treaty and Article 3.1 of the Statute of the ESCB conferupon the Eurosystem the sole competence for the following basic tasks:

  • • to define and implement the monetary policy of the euro area;
  • • to conduct foreign exchange operations;
  • • to hold and manage the official foreign reserves of the euro area Member States;
  • • to promote the smooth operation of payment systems.
slide51
Other related tasks include:

• the issue of euro banknotes as the only such notes to have the status of legaltender in the euro area (Article 106(1) of the EC Treaty and Article 16 of theStatute);

• the collection of the statistical information necessary for the tasks of theEurosystem (Article 5 of the Statute).

intra eurosystem legal acts
Intra-Eurosystem legal acts
  • There are three intra-Eurosystem legal acts, namely:
  • • ECB guidelines;
  • • ECB instructions;
  • • internal decisions.

ECB guidelines and ECB instructions are special types of legally binding andjudicially enforceable instruments. They are enacted to ensure that decentralisedoperations are carried out consistently by the NCBs in line with the internaldivision of competences.

slide53
The monetary and economic aspects of EMU have been organised differently.
  • Whereas monetary and exchange rate policies have been denationalised andcentralised at the Community level, the responsibility for economic policy hasremained with the Member States although national economic policies are to beconducted within a Community framework for cooperation in macroeconomicpolicies.
slide54
The Broad Economic Policy Guidelines (BEPGs) are the principal policyinstrument for coordinating national economic policies.
  • They containorientations for the general conduct of economic policy and make specificrecommendations to each Member State and the Community.
slide55
By outlining thenecessary measures in different policy fields – public finances, structuralreforms, taxation, labour market regulation or training and education – theBEPGs set the standard against which subsequent national and European policydecisions must be measured.
the stability and growth pact
The stability and growth pact
  • Budget deficit < 3 % of GDP
  • Government debt < 60 % of GDP
  • Exceptions:
    • budget deficit > 3 %, if serious downturn (real GDP growth < 0,75 %)
    • Government debt > 60 %, if debt is decreasing.
purpose of stability and growth pact sgp
Purpose of Stability and growth pact (SGP)
  • Avoid spill-over effects:
    • Rising interest rates
    • Risk of financial crisis
    • Inflation through ECB buying government debt (= printing press financing)
  • The Bail-out problem: The ”too large to fail syndrome”
sanctions
Sanctions
  • Interest-free deposit =0,2% of GDP + 10% of the deficit that is over 3%
  • The deposit is transformed to a fine if the deficit still is above 3% after three years
  • Commission issues recommendations and warnings acc. to Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP)
  • Council (ECOFIN) must decide on sanctions
  • Commission has sued the Council at the European Court of Justice for breach of SGP, verdict June 2004.
forces
Forces
  • Interaction between political initiatives and legal procedure with binding agreements
  • Focus on gains
  • Focus on inner market
  • EMU a political and economic project
  • The German reunification 1989
the first five and half years1999 2004
The first five and half years1999-2004
  • Plus:
    • Stable euro
    • Stable inflation
    • Increased financial integration
the first five years cont
The first five years cont.
  • Minus:
    • Relatively large spread of business cycle positions and inflation across members
    • Debate over ECB goals, procedures and accountability
    • Breach of SGP
    • Low growth:
      • Too restrictive monetary policy?
      • Big external shocks
    • Euro not large reserve currency
the future monetary policy risks and reforms
The future:Monetary policy: risks and reforms
  • 1. Enlargement: average EMU inflation target threatened by many small countries
    • reform: new voting procedure to lessen influence of small countries
  • 2. Central lender of last resort + national bank supervision Þ increased risk for system-wide financial crisis
    • reform: European-level bank supervision
  • 3. Degree of short-run stabilization
    • reform: increased accountability for ECB
fiscal policy risks and reforms
Fiscal policy: risks and reforms
  • Counteracting asymmetric shocks: reforms
      • EU fiscal policy transfers
      • Labor market reforms
      • Increased labor mobility
      • Change SGP:
        • Scrap deficit rule, only debt rule
        • redefine deficit as structural (cyclically adjusted) deficit to avoid pro-cyclical policy
        • spending limits and other national institutional safeguards
references
References
  • Paul De Grauwe: Economics of Monetary Union. Oxford University Press, 2003
  • EMU after 5 years. 2004. European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial affairs:

http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/eespecialreport0401_en.htm

  • www.ecb.org