World Climate Research Programme Plans and Priorities. Ghassem R. Asrar Director, WCRP. Outline. WCRP Intermediate Plan Joint Scientific Committee Joint Planning Staff International Project Offices Earth System Science Partnership WCRP Long-Term Plan
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Ghassem R. AsrarDirector, WCRP
World Climate Research Programme supports climate-related decision making and adaptation and mitigation planning by developing science required to improve
“for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).
2008-2013:WCRP activities and core projects implementing the Strategic Framework COPES(Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System)
Post-2013:to achieve a more effective interface with the users of climate informational products, a new WCRP structure will be needed
Antonio Busalacchi, USA (Chair)
Dave J. Griggs, Australia (Vice-Chair)
Jochem Marotzke, Germany (Officer)
V. Ramaswamy, USA (Officer)
Carolina Vera, Argentina (Officer)
Guoxiong Wu, China (Officer)
Kwabena Anaman, Ghana (Member)
Reza Ardakanian, Germany/Iran (Member)
Gregory Flato, Canada (Member)
Julia Slingo, UK (Member)
Ilana Wainer, Brazil (Member)
Hervè Le Treut, France (Member)
(as of 1 January 2009)
Sarah Gille, USA
Filipo Giorgi, Italy
B. Goswami, India
Vladimir Kattsov, Russia
Teruyuki Kakajima, Japan
Fredrick Semazzi, Uganda/USA
Senior Scientific Officer
Senior Scientific Officer
French Support Unit located in Paris
Jim Hurrell, USA (Co-Chair)
Martin Visbeck, Germany (Co-Chair)
Howard Cattle, UK (ICPO Director)
IPO located in UK
Ted Shepard, Canada (Co-Chair)
Tom Peter, Switzerland (Co-Chair)
Norm McFarlane, Canada (IPO Director)
IPO located in Canada
Konrad Steffen, USA (Chair)
Daqing Yang, USA (CIPO Director)
IPO located in Norway
Tom Ackerman, USA (Chair)
Peter van Oevelen, NL (IPO Director)
IPO located in USA
Rik Leemans, NL (Chair)
Jerry M. Melillo, USA
Deliang Chen, FR (Director)
Harold Mooney, USA (Chair)
Anne Larigauderie, FR (Director)
Carlos Nobre, BR (Chair)
Sybil Seitzinger, SWE (Director)
Oran Young, USA (Chair)
Antonio Busalacchi, USA (Chair)
Ghassem Asrar, SWI (Director)
Martin Rice, FR (Coordinator)
Global Carbon Project (GCP)
Corinne Le Quere, UK (Co-Chair)
Philippe Ciais, FR (Co-Chair)
Anand Patwardhan, INDIA (Co-Chair)
Josep Canadel, AUS (Director)
GEC and Food System (GECAFS)
Diana Liverman, USA (Chair)
John Ingram, UK (Director)
Global Water System Project (GWSP)
Charles Vorosmarty, UK (Co-Chair)
Janos Bogardi, GER (Director)
GEC and Human Health (GECHH)
Ulisses Confalonieri, BR (Co-Chair)
Mark Rosenberg, CAN (Co-Chair)
Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS)
Congbin Fu, CHINA (Chair)
Alikun, CHINA (Director)
Climate Food, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Thomas Rosswall, FR (Chair)
Bruce Campbell, DEN (Director)
Gordon McBean, CAN (Co-Chair)
Hassan Virji, USA (Director)
Extend and strengthen them.
Version 2.1 of Monthly GEWEX Global Precipitation Climatology
(see Huffman et al., 2009 GRL [accepted])
Main changes over land due to improved gauge analysis by German Weather Service (GPCC) group giving improved analysis over orography and slight increase in mean values
Figures: (a) Climatology for GPCP Version 2.1 in mm/d, and (b) (Version 2.1 –Version 2) difference averaged over 1979-2007 in mm/d.
Looking to the future:
The vision post 2013 was strongly influenced by the evolution of climate science, research, and education in the 1980’s, 1990’s, 2000+ across the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryopshere.
Looking to the future, a major envisioned challenge and opportunity at the intersection of WCRP+IGBP is the basic and applied research in support of the:
Prediction of the Earth System.
“Propose to IGBP SC the formation of a WCRP/IGBP task team to develop a white paper discussing a strategy for predictive Earth system modeling.”
WCRP should maintain the rigor of its science and remained focused on core physical science, addressing new science areas in partnerships with others - don’t drop key issues but maintain freedom to operate
The function of WCRP should be to provide the science that underpins understanding and predicting of climate leading to societal benefits. Communication and capacity building are also key issue, ref. COPES document
An emerging demand is a need to move to regional scales whilst from a science perspective recognize the importance of getting the global scales right. WCRP needs to have the capability to enable climate prediction from seasonal to century and global to local scales.
Called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global framework for climate services:
Decided to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services
VISION: Provision of routine and sustained global information on the marine environment sufficient to meet society’s needs for describing, understanding and forecasting marine variability (….), weather, seasonal to decadal climate variability, climate change, sustainable management of living marine resources, and assessment of longer term trends.
“to note that Committee on Scientific Planning Review (CSPR) is planning to organize a consultation, including a high-level meeting, with relevant partners to outline options for an overall framework for global environmental change research and its policy relevance, once the reviews of IGBP and WCRP are completed.”
Earth System Visioning
Goal: to engage the scientific community to explore options and to propose implementation steps for a holistic strategy on the Earth system research. This strategy will both encourage scientific innovation and address policy needs
Scientific importance.Does the question address a cutting-edge research challenge that could plausibly be addressed in the next decade that, if answered, can significantly advance our understanding of Global Change?
Policy relevance.Will the answer to the question help to achieve pressing global needs, including promoting sustainability, reducing poverty, and assisting the most vulnerable in coping with Global Change?
Broad support. Does the question have broad support from the research and funding community (even those not directly involved in answering the question)?
Global coordination.Is a coordinated international or global approach involving multiple researchers and disciplines needed to answer the question?
Leverage.Does the answer to the question involve a scientific or technical breakthrough, or would it create a transferable model, that would help to address multiple problems or challenges related to Global Change Science?
Broader base of expertise:
interdisciplinarity → transdisciplinarity
broader expertise in the social sciences (beyond geography and economics-> sociology/ psychology, ethics)
need for expertise in engineering/technology
need for communication experts
Enthusiasm of the community
Earth System Visioning
JSC focus on four major enabling themes to underpin scientific exploration and climate information delivery and applications:
The aim of WCRP is to facilitate analysis and prediction of Earth’s climate system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society.
The Open Science Conference will thus assemble the scientific community working to advance our ability to understand and predict variability and change of the Earth’s climate system on all time and space scales.
Through this synthesis of research findings and knowledge, WCRP will better inform assessments and prediction science practitioners on the state of climate science research, describe the challenges of the future, and chart pathways forward for WCRP.
Monday: The Climate System Components and Their Interactions
Tuesday: Observation and Analysis of the Climate System
Wednesday: Improving Predictive Capabilities
Thursday: Environmental Assessments
Friday (early a.m.): Regional Climate
Friday (late a.m.): Challenges and the Future