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Market Bias Forecast. May 2007. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc All rights reserved. What is a Market Bias Forecast?.

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Market bias forecast l.jpg

Market Bias Forecast

May 2007

Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc

All rights reserved.


What is a market bias forecast l.jpg
What is a Market Bias Forecast?

  • In researching social instability, A New Story Foundation has developed a method with high success in forecasting market movement in several key commodities and equity indices.

  • Market Bias is the composite outlook of a quantified estimate of bullish and bearish investors’ perspectives.

May 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.


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Market Bias

  • Using a symbol set to represent the collective mood of bullish traders, a story is compiled for the market movement from that perspective.

  • Strength of change is estimated for the entire month and for each time segment.

  • The procedure is then repeated for the bearish perspective.

  • Strength numbers for both bulls and bears are averaged. A price chart / price range is derived from these composite numbers.

May 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.


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May 2007 – Summary

  • Theme: Transition; a month of changing sentiment / trends.

  • Crude oil, the Dow index, and the U.S. Dollar should trade primarily within limited ranges for the first half of the month, while attempting to make a trend change.

  • Highest volatility, and greatest probability for a trend change that “sticks” is around mid-month.

May 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.


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Crude Oil

  • Bullish perspective for May:

    “Crude is technically set up for gains.”

  • Bearish perspective for May:

    “It’s difficult letting go of a trend.”

  • Overall strength of change is mildly bullish: +2 (out of 5)

May 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.


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Crude Oil - price

  • Crude Oil spends the first half of the month range bound, and then breaks out, most likely to the upside.

  • If the first week’s trend is down, look for the later break to be down.

May 2007Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.


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Crude Oil - range

July contract expected low 66.20, high 73, close 72 for a net gain of 6% for the month.


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Dow Index Futures

  • Bullish perspective for May:

    “The market is running out of steam.”

  • Bearish perspective for May:

    “It takes a leap of faith to go short.”

  • Overall strength of change is mildly bearish: -2 (max bearish -5).

May 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.


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Dow Futures - price

  • Difficult to tell what the stock market is going to do until the tug of war is resolved mid-month (likely by the bears).

  • Losses should continue into June.

May 2007Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.


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Dow Futures - range

Current contract expected low 12900, high 13300, close 12950 for a net loss of 1.7% for the month.


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U.S. Dollar Index

  • Bullish perspective for May:

    “Bottom looks solid; it’s ready to climb.”

  • Bearish perspective for May:

    “It’s difficult to find reasons NOT to be bearish U.S. dollar.”

  • Overall strength of change is slightly bullish: +1 (out of 5)

May 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.


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Dollar Index - price

  • Look for ambivalence in the dollar through mid-month, then a break out, likely to the upside.

  • The new trend may not be sustainable through the end of the month.

May 2007Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.


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Dollar Index - range

Current contract expected low 81, high 83, close 82.6 for a net gain of 1.5% for the month.


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Market Bias Summary - volatility

This composite shows the heightened volatility expected mid-month.

May 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.


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Disclaimer

The reliability of the forecasts corresponds with our current ability to reliably ascertain and score the collective mood of bullish and bearish investors for each time period under review.

A New Story Foundation is not a brokerage firm nor are we professional investment advisors. Please consult the appropriate person/firm for specific investment advice.

More information about our research can be found on our website at http://www.anewstory.org.



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