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The WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project – A Status Report Presentation by George C. Eads Charles River Associates, Inc. Project Lead Consultant August 8, 2002 Project Sponsors Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project

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slide1

The WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project – A Status ReportPresentation by George C. EadsCharles River Associates, Inc.Project Lead ConsultantAugust 8, 2002

structure of the wbcsd sustainable mobility project
Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project
  • Part 1 – Survey of the state of world mobility and its sustainability at the end of the twentieth century
  • Part 2 – Development of vision(s) of how mobility can be made sustainable in the future and of strategies for the attainment of this (these) vision(s)
structure of the wbcsd sustainable mobility project4
Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project
  • Phase 1 – Survey of the state of world mobility and its sustainability at the end of the twentieth century – Mobility 2001, released October 2001
  • Phase 2 – Development of vision of how mobility can be made sustainable in the future and of strategies for the attainment of this vision
structure of the wbcsd sustainable mobility project5
Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project
  • Phase 1 – Survey of the state of world mobility and its sustainability at the end of the twentieth century – Mobility 2001, released October 2001
  • Phase 2 – Development of vision of how mobility can be made sustainable in the future and of strategies for the attainment of this vision– now underway; Sustainable Mobility 2030 to be completed by December 2003
outline of today s presentation
Outline of today’s presentation
  • Summary of Mobility 2001
    • Scope of report
    • Major influences on the sustainability of mobility
    • Sustainability “scorecards” for the developed and developing worlds
    • “Grand challenges” to achieving sustainable mobility
  • Description of work underway in Part 2
    • Additional details on fuels-related work
scope of mobility 2001
Scope of Mobility 2001
  • Addresses multiple dimensions of sustainability
  • Focuses on urbanized areas of both the developed and developing worlds
  • Includes all transportation modes
  • Includes freight mobility as well as personal mobility
study team
Study team
  • MIT academic departments and research units represented:
    • Center for Transportation Studies
    • Energy Laboratory
    • Materials Systems Laboratory
    • Department of Urban Studies and Design
    • Sloan Automotive Laboratory
    • Department of Mechanical Engineering
    • Laboratory for Energy and the Environment
    • Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
    • Center for Technology Policy and Industrial Development
    • Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
  • CRA representation:
    • Senior research staff of CRA’s Transportation Practice
major influences on the sustainability of worldwide mobility
Major influences on the sustainability of worldwide mobility
  • Evolving patterns of human settlement and economic activity
  • Dominant role played by the personal road vehicle in providing personal mobility in the developed world
  • Certain regularities in personal travel patterns
  • Enormous growth in freight transportation
  • Transport’s almost total dependence on petroleum-based fuels
  • CO2 and “conventional” emissions from transport
  • Rapid urbanization and motorization of urbanized areas in the developing world
evolving patterns of human settlement and economic activity
Evolving patterns of human settlement and economic activity

Two phenomena are shaping this evolution

  • Urbanization – “the most powerful anthropogenic force on earth”
  • “Suburbanization” -- reduction in population density of urbanized areas

Neither could be occurring to the extent they are without the mobility improvements of the post WWII era

Both have important implications for the sustainability of mobility

slide11

Population living in urban areas

– 1950, 1975, 2000, and 2030(p)

1950Total pop. 2.5 billion

30% urban

1975Total pop. 4.1 billion

38% urban

2000Total pop. 6.1 billion

47% urban

2030Total pop. 8.1 billion

60% urban

0.20

0.28

0.31

1.01

0.90

0.30

0.37

0.81

1.94

0.73

3.88

0.45

1.41

3.02

2.22

2.93

Urban developed

Rural developed

Urban developing

Rural developing

Source: UN (1999).

urban population densities are falling
Urban population densities are falling

Data for illustrative developed world urban areas

Data are for “urbanized area” as defined by local and/or national authorities

Source: Demographia (2001).

ii auto ownership has been rising throughout most of the developed world

Note: Data not available for Iceland, Ireland, Luxemburg, and New Zealand.

Source: Updated database, based on Schafer (1998).

II. Auto* ownership has been rising throughout most of the developed world

*Vehicle ownership per 1000 population

*Auto = all light-duty, personal use vehicles

so has the utilization of autos

Annual auto passenger-km/person

Note: Data not available for Canada, Iceland, Ireland, Luxemburg, and New Zealand.Source: Updated database, based on Schafer (1998).

So has the utilization of autos*

*Autos = all personal use light duty vehicles

the auto now dominates personal travel in most developed world urbanized areas

Passenger

-

km/person/year

18,000

18,000

18,000

Rail+Tram

Rail+Tram

Rail+Tram

16,000

16,000

16,000

Bus

Bus

Bus

14,000

14,000

14,000

Car

Car

Car

12,000

12,000

12,000

10,000

10,000

10,000

8,000

8,000

8,000

6,000

6,000

6,000

4,000

4,000

4,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

0

0

0

Amsterdam

Amsterdam

Amsterdam

Copenhagen

Copenhagen

Copenhagen

Frankfurt

Frankfurt

Frankfurt

London

London

London

New York

New York

New York

San Francisco

San Francisco

San Francisco

Vienna

Vienna

Vienna

Zurich

Zurich

Zurich

Brisbane

Brisbane

Brisbane

Brisbane

Paris

Paris

Paris

Paris

Hamburg

Hamburg

Hamburg

Hamburg

Melbourne

Melbourne

Melbourne

Melbourne

Tokyo

Tokyo

Tokyo

Tokyo

Washington, DC

Washington, DC

Washington, DC

Washington, DC

Detroit

Detroit

Detroit

Detroit

Source:

Source:

Source:

Source:

Kenworthy

Kenworthy

Kenworthy

Kenworthy

and

and

and

and

Laube

Laube

Laube

Laube

(1999).

(1999).

(1999).

(1999).

The auto now dominates personal travel in most developed-world urbanized areas

Passenger

Passenger

-

-

km/person/year

km/person/year

public transport share has been declining

90%

90%

90%

80%

80%

80%

1960

1960

1960

70%

70%

70%

1990

1990

1990

60%

60%

60%

50%

50%

50%

40%

40%

40%

30%

30%

30%

20%

20%

20%

10%

10%

10%

0%

0%

0%

Amsterdam

Amsterdam

Amsterdam

Copenhagen

Copenhagen

Copenhagen

Frankfurt

Frankfurt

Frankfurt

London

London

London

New York

New York

New York

San

San

San

Vienna

Vienna

Vienna

Zurich

Zurich

Zurich

Francisco

Francisco

Francisco

Washington, DC

Washington, DC

Washington, DC

Paris

Paris

Paris

Brisbane

Brisbane

Brisbane

Detroit

Detroit

Detroit

Hamburg

Hamburg

Hamburg

Melbourne

Melbourne

Melbourne

Tokyo

Tokyo

Tokyo

Public transport share has been declining

Public transport share of motorized passenger kilometers

Source: Kenworthy and Laube (1999)

the auto also dominates long distance travel in the developed world

Share of intercity passenger-kilometers; Britain (1990) and the Netherlands (1990)

Netherlands

Britain

Car54%

Air29%

Air36%

Car58%

Busand Rail13%

Rail7%

Bus3%

Source: Updated database based on Schafer (2000); calculations by study team.

The auto also dominates long-distance travel in the developed world
growth in freight transportation all modes except ocean freight
Growth in freight transportation – all modes except ocean freight

Worldwide tonne-kilometers, 1970-1994; All modes except ocean freight

growth in ocean freight
Growth in ocean freight

Worldwide tonne-kilometers, 1975-1995; Ocean freight

New Mode

2.0

Note: Red numbers

show total freight

movements except

for ocean freight

road freight has been growing everywhere
Road freight has been growing everywhere

Tonnage figures understate value of freight hauled by road

rail freight traffic growing in a few regions
Rail freight traffic growing in a few regions

Tonnage figures overstate value of freight hauled by rail

v transportation s almost total dependence on petroleum based fuels
V. Transportation’s almost total dependence on petroleum-based fuels
  • 96% of fuel used in transportation is petroleum-based (gasoline, diesel, residual fuel oil, jet fuel)
  • Transport uses just over half of all petroleum
  • Presently, two-thirds of transport fuel is used in industrialized countries, but industrializing country use is climbing fast; by 2020, projected to be almost equal
vi emissions from transportation co 2

Commercial and other6%

Residential8%

Production of Energy41%

Transport26%

Manufacturing andConstruction19%

Source: IEA 2000a.

VI. Emissions from transportation – CO2

Share of worldwide C02 emissions from the combustion of fuel, by sector -- 1998

Of which:

Road (passenger

and freight) = 16.9%

Rail, domestic air, and

inland waterway = 6.1%

International air = 1.4%

International water = 1.7%

emissions of conventional pollutants
Emissions of “conventional” pollutants

Transport and road vehicles as a share of total emissions of pollutant (%)

Source: US Data – Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 21 – 2001

EU 15 Data – ACEA, “Commentary on the TERM 2001 Report”

vii the rapid urbanization and motorization of the developing world
VII. The rapid urbanization and motorization of the developing* world

The twin forces of urbanization and motorization are threatening to overwhelm whatever improvements in mobility that citizens in a number of developing countries have begun to enjoy in recent decades

* includes “emerging” economies of Eastern Europe

slide28

As incomes have risen, vehicle ownership rates in some developing world countries have begun to approach Western European and Japanese rates of 30-40 years ago

Vehicle ownership per 1000 population

Source: Ward’s/Pemberton, World Vehicle Forecasts and Strategies: The Next 20 Years, 1996.

lower income groups in developing world countries are heavily dependant on public transport

80

80

Walking

Walking

Auto

Auto

Public transport

Public transport

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

Lower income groups in developing world countries are heavily dependant on public transport

Data for Santiago

Percentage of all trips

Percentage of all trips

<$117

<$117

$208

$208

$316

$316

$1,160

$1,160

$2,865

$2,865

$494

$494

$750

$750

$117

$117

$208

$208

$316

$316

$494

$494

$750

$750

$1,160

$1,160

>$2,865

>$2,865

Monthly income (1991 US$)

Monthly income (1991 US$)

Note: Santiago does not add to 100%; not all modal shares include

Note: Santiago does not add to 100%; not all modal shares includ

ed.

ed.

accidents victims aren t just vehicle occupants
Accidents victims aren’t just vehicle occupants

-

Mode share and road accidents in Delhi, 1994

Mode Share

Fatalities

Ratio (fatalities/

Mode

(%)

(%)

mode share)

Car/taxi

5

2

0.6

Bus

42

10

0.2

Motorized 2

-

wheelers

12

27

2.3

Bicycle

5

14

2.8

Pedestrian

32

42

1.3

Source: Mohan and Tiwari (1999).

motor vehicle related air pollution an especially serious problem in many urban areas

Table 4

-

8. Motor vehicle contribution of total air pollutants in selected developing

-

country cities

City

Year

CO

HC

No

SO

SPM

x

2

Beijing

1989

39

75

46

NA

NA

2000

84

NA

73

NA

NA

Bombay

1992

NA

NA

52

5

24

Budapest

1987

81

75

57

12

NA

Cochin, India

1993

70

95

77

NA

NA

Delhi

1987

90

85

59

13

37

Lagos, Nigeria

1988

91

20

62

27

69

Mexico City

1990

97

53

75

22

35

1996

99

33

77

21

26*

Santiago

1993

95

69

85

14

1997

92

46†

71

Motor vehicle-related air pollution an especially serious problem in many urban areas

11

15

86‡

São Paulo

1990

94

89

92

64

39

Sources: WRI (1996); West et al. (2000); CONAMA (1998); Fu and Yuan (2001)

.

* PM10.

† Does not include evaporative emissions from refueling.

‡ PM10, includes fugitive road dust.

NA: Data not a

vailable

developed world

Level

Direction

Measuresto be increased

+

Access to means of personal mobility

Equity in access

Appropriate mobility infrastructure

+

Inexpensive freight transportation

Measures to be reduced

Congestion

+

“Conventional” emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions

+

Transportation noise

Other environmental impacts

Developed world

Disruption of communities

+

Transportation

-

related accidents

+

Transportations' demand for nonrenewable e

nergy

+

Transportation

-

related solid waste

developing world

Level

Direction

Measures to be increased

+

Access to means of mobility

?

Equity of access

Appropriate mobility infrastructure

+

Inexpensive freight transportation

Measures to be reduced

Congestion

“Conventional” emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions

Transportation noise

Other environmental impacts

Developing world

Disruption of communities

Transportation

-

related accidents

+

Transportations’ demand for non

-

renewable energy

?

Transportation

-

related solid waste

group 1
Group 1
  • Adapting the personal use motor vehicle to the future accessibility needs/requirements of the developed and developing worlds
  • Drastically reducing carbon emissions from the transportation sector
  • Providing mobility for those not having access to personal motor vehicles in both the developed and developing worlds
group 2
Group 2
  • Resolving the competition for access to infrastructure between personal and freight transportation
  • Dealing with growing problem of congestion in inter-city personal and goods transportation
group 3
Group 3
  • “Reinventing” the process of planning, developing, financing, and managing mobility infrastructure
  • Improving institutional capability to identify, build consensus about how to solve, and implement approaches that promote sustainable mobility

And, while doing all of this:

  • Ensuring that our transportation systems continue to play their essential role in economic development and, through the mobility they provide, serve essential human need and enhance the quality of life
from mobility 2001 to mobility 2030
From Mobility 2001 to Mobility 2030
  • Mobility 2001 provides us with a “situation analysis”
  • How do we now develop a “vision of sustainable mobility” and “pathways” for reaching it?
developing mobility 2030
Developing Mobility 2030
  • Work has been divided into ten separate tasks, or “work streams”
  • Purpose of each work stream – to provide a major piece of the information and analysis
work stream 1 indicators
Work Stream #1 -- Indicators
  • “We will agree upon a set of sustainability indicators that will enable the project to develop an operational definition of sustainable mobility.”

Action team being chaired by Norsk Hydro; recommendations presented to Working Group in mid-July meeting

why indicators
Why indicators?
  • To permit individual action teams to know how the information they are producing will be used;
  • To permit the project as a whole to assure that it is focusing on the most relevant issues;
  • To permit those involved in the later work streams to measure the impact of potential actions; and,
  • To assure that our “vision” is grounded in reality and addresses the major challenges to achieving sustainable mobility.
work stream 2 transport vehicle design and technology
Work stream #2 – transport vehicle design and technology

“We will assess the potential impact on sustainability of mobility of developments in transport vehicle technology and design”

Action Team being chaired by VW; preliminary report to be presented to Working Group in September

range of transport vehicles
Range of transport vehicles
  • Passenger vehicles
    • 1-2 passenger (including mopeds, etc.)
    • 3-6 passenger (“conventional” cars)
    • 6-15 passenger (small vans, etc.)
    • buses (city, suburban, intercity)
  • Goods-hauling vehicles
    • Light, local use
    • Medium, local use
    • Heavy, local use
    • Medium, intercity use
    • Heavy, intercity use
  • Multi-purpose vehicles
    • Purpose-built vans
    • Car-derived vans
    • Vans derived from pickups or similar vehicles

Information to cover both developed and developing worlds

range of performance attributes
Range of performance attributes
  • Powertrain types, their fuel requirements, and their performance characteristics
  • Materials used in vehicle construction
  • Safety performance
    • Occupant protection
    • Crash avoidance
    • Interaction with pedestrians, etc.
  • Emissions performance
    • Conventional
    • Greenhouse gas
  • Recyclability
  • Potential for use of on-board electronics
work stream 3 transport fuels
Work stream #3 – transport fuels
  • “We will identify the potential impact on sustainability of fuels used in transportation
  • Objectives:
    • Develop a shared understanding of fuel pathways which can contribute to sustainability goals by 2030
    • Identify enablers and blockers for each pathway
    • Ensure that regional differences are taken into account, ensure adequate focus on developing world issues.”

Action team being chaired by Shell and Toyota

work stream 4 infrastructure
Work stream #4 – infrastructure
  • “We will assess the infrastructure requirements resulting from the developments in transport technology and design and by the impact of the changes in fuels used by transport analyzed in Work Streams 2 and 3. We also will assess the potential impact on sustainable mobility of addressing – and of failing to address – these and other infrastructure requirements.”

Action team being chaired by GM

work stream 5 demand for personal mobility
Work stream #5 – demand for personal mobility
  • “We will assess the impact on the demand for personal mobility of (a) the developments identified in transport vehicle design and technology, fuels used in transport, and associated transport infrastructure requirements, and (b) expected developments in population, urban form, growth in per capita income, changes in income distribution, etc.”

Action team being chaired by Ford and Honda

work stream 6 goods and services mobility
Work stream #6 – goods and services mobility
  • “We will assess the impact on the demand for goods and services mobility of (a) the developments we have identified in transport vehicle design and technology, fuels, and infrastructure, and (b) expected developments in population, urban form, growth in per capita income, changes in the composition and structure of industry, changes in logistics requirements, etc.”

Action team being chaired by DaimlerChrysler

work stream 7 policy instruments and institutional issues
Work stream #7 – policy instruments and institutional issues
  • “We will identify the range of policy measures that appear to be available to influence the demand for personal mobility and the demand for goods and services mobility, indicate what is known about their effectiveness in various situations, identify institutional barriers to their use as well as the institutional barriers to the implementation of other actions showing promise for improving the sustainability of mobility, and suggest how these institutional barriers can be overcome and the consequences for achieving sustainable mobility if they are not.”

Action team leadership not yet assigned

work stream 8 9 mobility in the urban and long distance context
Work stream #8/#9 – mobility in the urban and long-distance context
  • “We will assess how personal mobility and goods and services mobility may evolve over the next 30 years in the urbanized areas of the developed and developing worlds, assess the impact of this evolution on the sustainability of mobility, and identify actions that could render mobility more sustainable. We will make the same assessment for long-distance personal and goods and services mobility.”

Action team co-chaired by Nissan and VW

work stream 10 scenario design vision development coordination
Work stream #10 – scenario design, “vision” development, coordination
  • We will assess the cumulative impact of anticipated changes in urbanized area and long-distance personal and goods mobility on the sustainability of mobility and assess the impact of various possible actions on the sustainability of mobility

Action team being chaired by Shell and Ford

coverage of fuel related issues
Coverage of fuel-related issues
  • At least three workstreams logically have some role in addressing fuels-related issues
    • WS2 – Vehicle technology
      • Vehicle fuel use and on-vehicle fuel storage
    • WS3 – Fuels
      • Fuel production and distribution
    • WS4 – Infrastructure
      • Local siting issues (NIMBY)

Some “boundary” issues still under discussion

ws3 fuels and primary sources
Final Fuels

Diesel

Gasoline

Methanol

Ethanol

Hydrogen

LPG

Methane

Bioethanol

Biodiesel

Primary Sources

Crude oil

Natural gas

Crops

Geothermal

Wind

Hydro/wave

Solar

WS3 --Fuels and primary sources
issues being addressed by ws3
Issues being addressed by WS3
  • Fuels for transportation in 2030 – sources and availability
  • Production technique prospects – infrastructure, costs, environmental impact
  • Customer acceptance issues
  • Sustainability of the fuel
  • Route to “end game” and implications
  • “Quick win” options in different regions
  • Variances between urban and long distance/rural travel for the optimal fuel options
  • “showstoppers” for various options in the different regions
  • Categorization of niche and mainstream options
  • Actions to bring most promising sustainable fuels to reality in different regions
  • Regional variations for the above issues
  • Potential fuels for non-road transport and implications for road transport fuels
contractor for ws3 presently conducting interviews with wide range of stakeholders
Contractor for WS3* presently conducting interviews with wide range of stakeholders
  • Renewable and non-renewable fuel producers including industrial gases
  • Vehicle/power train manufacturers
  • NGOs including transport assocations, consumer groups, fuel associations (i.e., OPEC), World Bank, etc.
  • Regulatory bodies

* Frost & Sullivan

emerging themes from interviews
Emerging themes from interviews
  • Significant reliance on oil based fuels at least through 2030
  • Political pressure for change
  • Widespread support for “Well-to-Wheel” analysis
  • Unanimous support for hydrogen in long term
some suspicion of unanimity re hydrogen
Some suspicion of unanimity re. hydrogen
  • WS10 undertaking formal scenario analysis
    • GBN is the contractor
  • Scenario analysis designed to assure that we are examining an appropriate range of future political and economic conditions
    • Bears on “robustness” of likelihood of hydrogen