“We Live in Exponential Times” Interagency to Whole-of-Government

1. “We Live in Exponential Times”Interagency to Whole-of-Government Prof. L. Erik Kjonnerod Director, Center for Applied Strategic Learning, NDU

3. It became clear to me at 58. I would have to learn new tricks that were not taught to me in the military manuals or on the battlefield… I must become an expert in a whole new set of skills. General George Marshall Former Secretary of State A whole new set of skills is crucial.

4. “Shift Happens” • “In times of rapid change, the learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists.” • Eric Hoffer • “The illiterate of the 21st Century will not be those who cannot read or write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn.” • Alvin Toffler

5. Evolution is Imperative. It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. Charles Darwin We must always renew, change, rejuvenate ourselves; otherwise we harden. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

6. A New National Security The greatest test of global leadership in the 21st century will be the way in which nations act in the face of threats that transcend international borders, from nuclear proliferation, armed conflict, and climate change to terrorism, biological hazards, and abject poverty. Today, national security is interdependent with international security. Global Strategic Assessment 2009

7. The Cold War

8. GWOT

9. Emerging Security Issues

10. Left Behind - NKPD

11. The Nation-State is Losing Ground International Bodies Global Advocacy Groups Licit Private Actors The Nation-State Illicit Private Actors Aggrieved National Groups

12. Widespread Troubles…

13. Two-Edged Sword The forces of globalization that stitch the world together and drive prosperity could also tear it apart. In the face of new transnational threats and profound security interdependence, even the strongest countries rely on the cooperation of others to protect their national security. No nation, including the United States, iscapable of successfully meetingthechallenges, or capitalizing on the opportunities, of this changed world alone. But American foreign policy lags behind these realities.

14. Examples of this Paradigm-Shift • Natural Resources Challenges • The Spread of Islam • The Changing Nature of War • The Rise of China

15. Resources - Specific Regional Challenges • China, a country with more than 22% of the world’s population, only has 8% of its fresh water. • India’s water demand is expected to double by 2025. • The Middle East’s fresh water availability is expected to drop by 50% well before 2025.

16. Islam - Why We Care:Foreign Policy Implications • Our interests in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Israel, Palestine, and Iran are inextricably tied to Islam. • A negative perception of the US and its involvement in the region feeds Islamic extremism Ironically, our greatest strength—militarypower—has become our greatest liability because extensive use of military power canhelp to mobilize Muslims to become Salafi jihadists. Our most important partners are Muslims, and we will have to continue to find ways to support ongoing Muslim efforts to marginalize the Salafi jihadist ideology across the Isalmic world while taking prudent actions to inhibit catastrophic terrorism. Global Strategic Assessment 2009

17. The Changing Nature of War • As society and technology change, the nature of war also changes, specifically with regard to: • Actors • Means • The most capable opponents may seek to pursue what has been called hybrid warfare—the combination of conventional, irregular, and catastrophic forms of warfare simultaneously. • Global Strategic Assessment 2009

18. Why the US needs China • Economy – In 2008, the US exported $71.5 billion in goods to China, and imported $337.8 billion • Strategic Interests – China is a regional heavyweight for dealing with difficult problems such as North Korea

19. Why the World Needs China • China’s large population and rapid economic growth have increased its energy needs. It has vested interests in exploring new energy markets—such as Venezuela and Sudan. • Its seat on the UNSC demands that others consider its point of view • It is a significant factor in East Asian regional stability • It is a nuclear power

20. Major Differences Between China and the United States China -Communist -Ancient Culture -Focus on Long-term -Concerned with “losing face” -Relies on “connections” -indirect communication -Values elderly United States -Democratic -Nascent culture -Focused on election cycle -Concerned with standing up for a worthy cause -legalistic -Direct Communication -Values youth

21. Today’s global troubles… tomorrow’s domestic concerns!

23. Thinking Strategically • Hot Topics • Pandemic disease • Natural disasters • Trade promotion • Global debt • Foreign oil • Stability operations • Counterterrorism • Larger Issues • Health and security • Domestic preparedness • Corporate governance • Economic inequality • Resource scarcity • USG structure • Global demographics Stop reacting; start preventing.

24. Thoughts on Doctrine: Why Bother? • "The most difficult thing about planning against the Americans, is that they do not read their own doctrine, and they would feel no particular obligation to follow it if they did." Admiral Sergei I. Gorshkov, (Father of the Russian blue water navy) • “The British write some of the best doctrine in the world, it is fortunate that their officers do not read it." Col (later FM) Erwin Rommel • “I am tempted to say that whatever doctrine the armed forces are working on now, they have got it wrong. I am also tempted to declare that it does not matter. What does matter is their ability to get it right quickly, when the moment arrives.” Sir Michael Howard

25. The Future of Engagement • What is a peer? • Will asymmetric, nontraditional means become a commonplace element of war? • What does it mean to “win”? • Must we be prepared to fight a war on many fronts? • combat abroad, in the face of both kinetic and nontraditional threats • attacks at home, to hinder supply and deployment • attacks on civilian targets in the US homeland • shaping public opinion • When many more adversaries are nuclear powers, how will it change the equation? • Employing the private sector?

26. Traditional Orientation Executive Branch Agencies Foreign Governments Congress Nongovernmental Organizations Intergovernmental Organizations

27. DoD State NSC Intel Players and ConnectionsThe Original “Interagency”

28. Current Reality Adds…. State and Local Governments Multinational Firms Contractors Extra-state Actors And then some…….. How are new players leveraged in “Whole of Government” strategy?

29. Congress DOJ HHS Intel DOC OMB OSD JCS USUN NSC State NGOs Treas AID DHS Foreign Govts DOE WOG Players and Connections: Today’s Reality

33. President • NSC National Security Policies Principals Committee (PC) Interagency Policy Committees (IPCs) Sec State SECDEF DNI Director OMB CJCS NSC JCS State OSD DCI OMB USUN Deputies Committee (DC) D / Sec State DepSECDEF DEP DNI D / Dir OMB VCJCS Interagency process of policy formulation Policy deliberation and development mechanism and advisory board on broadest security issues National Security Council (NSC) and Interagency Structure

34. President Principals Committee Deputies Committee Interagency Policy Committees A Changing Process • National Security Advisor runs the process – Centralized control • More formalized tasking to Deputies Committee • Interagency Policy Committees chaired by NSC The mission of the US is to provide global leadership grounded in the understanding that the world shares A common security and a common humanity. President Barack Obama: For Affrs Aug 2007

35. Consistent Challenges • Cultural differences • Military v. civilian agency response • Rivalries & tensions among and within agencies • Differences in roles, priorities & footprints • Hesitant buy-in • Peacetime planning incentives • Coordination = ‘s ceding control • Tight resources with declining trends – unless clear, costs trump benefits • Resistance to collaborative planning culture and tools • Inter-department security policy and procedures

36. System Operates at the Edge of Chaos System shows elements of chaos: • Non-linearity is common • It is sensitive to initial conditions • Tipping points are prevalent • but it also shows continuity • Agency players, interests, and capabilities remain the same or change slowly Neither individual players nor the group can control the final outcome with any certainty

37. Emerging Challenges and New Thinking

38. Recent Thinking • Newt’s Note, Strategic Changes Needed -leadership metrics -Goldwater-Nichols for non-defense -winning the Long War -defeating terrorists in urban areas -basic research reqs. -entrepreneurialism -communication/evaluation • CSIS, Seven Revolutions, Seven Futures -global, long-term, trends until 2025 • Huntington -clash of civilizations along ethno-linguistic-socio-cultural lines • Friedman -running faster just to stay in place • Barnett -filling the seams between war and peace is essential for US national interests

39. Quadrennial Strategic Review Government-Wide Information Sharing Interagency Fusion Groups Global Health Engagement Global Hazards Planning and Response U.S. Government Partnership Framework Science and Technology Incentive Framework Global Domain Foresight Human Resources Model for Global Affairs Global Affairs Learning Consortium PH Findings Enhance Interagency Capabilities

40. Project on National Security Reform • Project on National Security Reform (Jim Locher) • In 1947 there were 4 agencies; today there are 26 • Options: • Director of National Security Affairs (DNSA) – with Authority • No National Security Advisor or Homeland Security Advisor • Regional Directors of “Integrated Regional Centers” (IRCs) • Issue Focused, less collaborative, White House focused long term • Hierarchy of Decentralized Teams • Empowered cross functional teams that work issues at all levels for the President day to day – decentralized problem solving

41. Key Initiatives and ProgramsDirectives, Studies, & Educational Initiatives • Joint Interagency Coordination Groups • Provides civilian counsel and expertise to the combatant commanders. • The Way Ahead…?...S/CRS, PRTs…? • National Security Professional • Qualification for select positions within the Executive Branch • National Security Education Consortium • The Way Ahead…? • Center for Complex Operations • Interagency Center for Complex Operations located in Washington, DC • Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization (S/CRS)

43. Draft Curricula Learning Areas • National Security Strategy • National diplomatic, informational, military, and economic strategies • Agencies’ Supporting Strategies • Joint, Interagency, and Multinational Capabilities • National Planning Systems and Processes • Strategic Leader Development • Ethics / legislative awareness / management NSP Core Competencies Draft NSP Specialty Tracks • Counter-Terrorism / Irregular Warfare • Security, Stability, Transition, and Reconstruction / Complex Operations • Intelligence / Cultural Intelligence • Strategic Communications • Countering WMD • Homeland Security/Domestic Preparedness • National Security Administration NSP Knowledge, Skills, Abilities and other Attributes Notional NSP Competencies and Learning Areas* *Requires input from Interagency stakeholders

44. Integrated Management System (IMS) • Country Reconstruction & Stabilization Group (CRSG) • Washington-based • Decision-making body (Policy Coordination Committee (PCC)) • With Planning and Operations Staff • Integration Planning Cells (IPC) • Geographic Combatant Command or multinational headquarters • Civilian planning cell • Advance Civilian Teams (ACT) • In the field, Report to Chief of Mission • Interagency field management and coordination teams

45. Planning Process • Situation Analysis • Interagency Conflict Assessment Framework (ICAF) • Situation Analysis Overview • Policy Formulation • Policy Advisory Memorandum

46. 1. Situation Analysis 2. Policy Formulation Policy Statement 3. Strategy Development Regional – Military Commands IPCs • USAFRICOM • ECOWAS or AU • NGOs • UN Mission In the Field ACT 4. Implementation Chief of Mission Planning Process ICAF Situation Analysis Overview Integrated Management System National – Washington DC Policy Advisory Memo CRSG PCC USG R&S Strategic Plan

47. Individually Coordination takes work Personal commitment Networking and meeting those who you will need to work with Pushing for understanding Institutionally Career-long education requirements Changes in budget, doctrine, and direction Building capacity through leveraging the expertise and strengths of other agencies In the Future - ‘HOW’ You are the agent of change

48. Or....when all else fails: Flowchart For Problem Resolution Is It Working? NO YES Don’t Mess With It! Did You Mess With It? YES YOU IDIOT! NO Anyone Else Knows? Will it Blow Up In Your Hands? You’re SCREWED! YES YES Can You Blame Someone Else? NO NO NO Hide It Look The Other Way Yes NO PROBLEM!

49. QUESTIONS?