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Natural Gas Winter Outlook Natural Gas Winter Outlook Winter Heating Season 2005-2006 2007-2008 DRAFT 9/26 Outline How Did We Do Last Winter? Winter 2007-2008 Market Pressure Points Winter Weather Other Market Factors Scorecard On Natural Gas Outlook Conclusions 2

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natural gas winter outlook

Natural Gas Winter Outlook

Natural Gas Winter Outlook

Winter

Heating

Season

2005-2006

2007-2008

DRAFT 9/26

outline
Outline
  • How Did We Do Last Winter?
  • Winter 2007-2008
    • Market Pressure Points
    • Winter Weather
    • Other Market Factors
  • Scorecard On Natural Gas Outlook
  • Conclusions

2

how did we do
How Did We Do ?

2006 - 2007

Estimate

2006- 2007

Actual

LAST WINTER’S

Score

WEATHER

ECONOMY

DEMAND

STORAGE

SUPPLY

MARKET PRESSURE

3

weather demand
Weather / Demand

ACTUAL

FORECAST

Winter Season

Data Sources: NOAA, EVA

Last Winter

2006-2007

This Year

2007-2008

7% warmer than normal

2% warmer than normal

< ACTUAL SEASON

WARMER THAN NORMAL

NORMAL

WARMER

THAN NORMAL

NORMAL

NOAA’s PROJECTION >

MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL

COOLER THAN

NORMAL

HEATING DEGREE DAYS

3,354

3,530

5

economy demand
Economy / Demand

ACTUAL

FORECAST

Winter Season

PERIOD TO PERIOD CHANGE

Data Source: Global Insight

Last Winter

2006-2007

This Year

2007-2008

Low Growth

About the Same

ECONOMY

2.1%

2.2%

GDP GROWTH

4.5%

4.9%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

2.8%

2.6%

MANUFACTURING

2.2%

2.8%

CPI

6

slide7

Overall Demand

ACTUAL

FORECAST

Winter Season

— FIVE MONTHS —

Data Source: EVA

Last Winter

2006-2007

This Year

2007-2008

72.9 Bcf/d

74.2 Bcf/d

DEMAND

1.8%

5.0%

DEMAND CHANGE

ANNUAL GENERATING CAPACITY ADDITIONS

6.2 GW

9.9 GW

Residential

Electric

GROWTH SECTOR

None

None

DECLINE SECTOR

7

storage supply
Storage / Supply

Winter Season

Data Sources: EIA, ICF

Last Winter

2006-2007

This Year

2007-2008

END OFINJECTION SEASON

3,445 Bcf

3,520 Bcf

PERCENT OF AVG. FILL

( FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE )

105%

105%

ADDITIONAL STORAGE CAPACITY

24 Bcf

Est. 104 Bcf

8

production supply
Production / Supply

ACTUAL

FORECAST

Winter Season

Data Source: ICF

Last Winter

2006-2007

This Year

2007-2008

ANNUALWELL COMPLETIONS

29,000

30,500

ANNUAL AVG. RIG COUNT

1,372

1,485

WINTER AVG. PRODUCTION

50.7 Bcf/d

51.3 Bcf/d

8.5 Bcf/d

7.8 Bcf/d

CANADIAN IMPORTS

1.9 Bcf/d

2.0 Bcf/d

LNG IMPORTS

9

other market factors
Other Market Factors
  • Consumer Conservation
  • - Structural
  • - Behavioral
  • Weather Risks
  • - Hurricanes (Dust Storm Effects)
  • - Cold Snaps
  • • New Transportation Infrastructure

Variables That Can Move TheMarket:

10

winter outlook
Winter Outlook

Last Winter

2006-2007

Winter Season

This Year

2007-2008

Weather / Demand

Economy / Demand

Overall Demand

Storage / Supply

Production / Supply

11

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Tight Market Mindset Accepted
  • LNG – Potentially Moderating Influence
  • Producers Maintaining Heavy Investments in This Stable Price Environment
  • Federal Lawmakers Need to Make the Tough Decisions on Natural Gas Supply

12