Ruc cloud ceiling forecasts with and without tamdar
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RUC Cloud/Ceiling Forecasts with and without TAMDAR. Brian Jamison NOAA/FRD/FSL - CIRA. August 18, 00 UTC, 6hr fcst. Dev forecast - shows low ceilings just north of MN, also some low ceilings in southern IL and IN. August 18, 00 UTC, 6hr fcst.

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Ruc cloud ceiling forecasts with and without tamdar

RUC Cloud/Ceiling Forecasts with and without TAMDAR

Brian Jamison

NOAA/FRD/FSL - CIRA


August 18 00 utc 6hr fcst
August 18, 00 UTC, 6hr fcst

Dev forecast - shows low ceilings just north of MN, also some low ceilings in southern IL and IN.


August 18 00 utc 6hr fcst1
August 18, 00 UTC, 6hr fcst

Dev2 forecast - shows low ceilings in northern MN, fewer low ceilings in southern IL and IN.


August 18 06 utc analysis
August 18, 06 UTC, analysis

Dev analysis - low ceilings in northern MN verify for Dev2, but Dev forecast is somewhat better for ceilings in southern IL and IN.


August 18 00 utc 6hr fcst2
August 18, 00 UTC, 6hr fcst

Dev forecast of Aviation Flight Rules - similar to ceiling forecast


August 18 00 utc 6hr fcst3
August 18, 00 UTC, 6hr fcst

Dev2 forecast of Aviation Flight Rules - similar to ceiling forecast. Shows large area of LIFR over northern MN.


August 18 06 utc analysis1
August 18, 06 UTC, analysis

Analysis of Aviation Flight Rules - most of the area of LIFR over northern MN verifies for Dev2.


August 23 00 utc 6hr fcst
August 23, 00 UTC, 6hr fcst

Dev forecast - shows MI cloud free over almost the entire state.


August 23 00 utc 6hr fcst1
August 23, 00 UTC, 6hr fcst

Dev2 forecast - some bases between 3000-5000 ft. in central MI.


August 23 06 utc analysis
August 23, 06 UTC, analysis

Verifying analysis has ceilings over most of MI, favoring the Dev2 forecast.


August 23 06 utc metar obs
August 23, 06 UTC, METAR obs

Observed ceilings from METAR network further validate low ceilings over MI.


August 22 21 24 utc tamdar
August 22, 21-24 UTC, TAMDAR

TAMDAR data that likely contributed to the Dev2 fcst. Three separate soundings show a high RH layer at about 5000 ft.


August 24 12 utc 3hr fcst
August 24, 12 UTC, 3hr fcst

Dev forecast - a few areas of low ceilings in Great Lakes area including a small area in southeast WI.


August 24 12 utc 3hr fcst1
August 24, 12 UTC, 3hr fcst

Dev2 forecast - more low ceilings in the Great Lakes area, particularly over Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. Low ceilings in SE WI extend further north.


August 24 15 utc analysis
August 24, 15 UTC, analysis

Verifying analysis shows some low ceilings over Lake Superior and in central and SE WI.


August 24 15 utc metar
August 24, 15 UTC, METAR

METAR ceiling observations identify the ceilings in WI, a few in MI, and one just south of Lake Michigan, but no METAR sites on the Lakes themselves.


August 24 1515 utc satellite vis image
August 24, 1515 UTC, Satellite Vis Image

Visible satellite image confirms clouds in WI and MI, but none over the Great Lakes. Why did Dev2 show extensive low ceilings?


August 24 09 12 utc tamdar flight paths
August 24, 09-12 UTC, TAMDAR flight paths

Four TAMDAR flights near Lake Superior.


August 24 09 12 utc tamdar soundings
August 24, 09-12 UTC, TAMDAR soundings

Corresponding TAMDAR soundings near Lake Superior. Note the northerly winds.


August 24 12 utc 3hr fcst dev dev2 differences
August 24, 12 UTC, 3hr fcst Dev-Dev2 differences

Difference plot for 1000mb reveals RH differences in and south of Lake Superior. Also note that temperature differences in the same area show Dev2 to be colder than Dev.


Conclusions
Conclusions

  • Cases are seen where Dev2 ceiling forecasts verify better than Dev, although there are some cases where Dev has better verification.

  • Need to examine statistics for the forecasts, particularly in the TAMDAR area.

  • Examine the high-resolution period with respect to an adjacent period, and with respect to more recent periods with updated reject lists.