Key Workplace Trends & Impact to Human Resources August 2007
Sources • From McKinsey Quarterly, online journal January 2006, “Ten Trends to Watch in 2006,” Ian Davis and Elizabeth Stephanson • From “SHRM Workplace Forecast, 2006-2007 Executive Summary” & “SHRM Special Expertise Panels 2006 Trends Update”, www.shrm.org/research • Business Week “Future of Work Survey” to 2,000 managers, published August 20, 2007 • “Are They Ready to Work? Employers’ Perspectives on Basic Knowledge and Applied Skills of New Entrants to 21st Century US Workforce,” key findings of survey to 400 employers by Conference Board, Corporate Voices for Working Families, Partnership for 21st Century Skills, and Society for Human Resources Management, October 2006.
McKinsey – Ten Trends to Watch • What is happening today that will make 2015 a very different environment for Business? • Macroeconomic trends • Social and environmental trends • Business and industry trends
McKinsey Quarterly – 10 Trends to Watch - Macroeconomic • Centers of economic activity will shift globally and regionally • Currently Asia (minus Japan) accounts for 13% world GDP and Western Europe has 30%+. Within 20 years Asia will catch up. • Public sector costs will balloon, requires increase in productivity • Aging population causes huge outlay for pension & health care. • Not just developed economies but countries with emerging markets demanding more retirement & health care security.
Macroeconomic trends • Consumer spending changes worldwide • Billion new consumers worldwide in next decade with increase in discretionary spending – $4 trillion to $9 trillion plus. • Hispanic population in 2015 spend equivalent of 60% of all Chinese consumers. • Technology will give all consumers info and access to products.
Ten Trends to WatchSocietal and Environmental • Technological connectivity transforms way people live. • 12% newlyweds last year met online, 2 billion use cell phones, billion Google searches a day (more than half not in English), 9 trillion emails a year. • Integration of global labor market • 33 million college educated in developing countries • Companies shifting jobs where the talent is and not just low paying jobs.
Societal and Environmental Trends • Behavior of big business coming under increasingly sharp scrutiny. • Current US ideology not understood or accepted around globe – intellectual property rights, free trade, shareholder value. • Regulatory backlashes
Societal and Environmental Trends • Demand for natural resources and strain on environment. • Oil demand to grow by 50% in 20 years. Supply can not keep up with demand. Similar demands on copper, steel, aluminum. • Water shortage
Ten Trends to Watch Business and Industry • New global industry structures • Nontraditional business models flourishing • Management not an art but a science • Technology and highly sophisticated software running companies. • Most CEO’s are boomers & impending leadership crisis is coming. As many as 50% senior managers leaving in next 5 years.
Business and Industry Trends • Access to information changing economics of knowledge. • Google and other online tools allow instantaneous access. • Open source knowledge, new models of production, distribution and ownership. • World-wide patent applications rose 20% annually in last 10 years.
2006 SHRM Workplace Forecasts • Every two years looks at trends in following areas: • Demographic • Economic • Employment • International • Politics • Societal • Science & Technology • Describes impact to HR and actions being taken
SHRM Workplace Forecast – Top Three Themes Overall • Rise in healthcare costs • Implications of increased global competition • Demographic changes, aging of workforce, impending mass retirement of baby boomers at about same time
Demographic Outlook • In 2003, Hispanics became the largest minority group in US • Most population increase seen in ethnic and racial minorities - births and immigrants • Singles outnumber married couples with children • Later age for child bearing
Demographic Impact • Aging population impact • Sandwich generation caring for children and parents • Fewer workers to support Medicare & Social Security • Diversity of workers impacts workforce policies • Flextime, telecommuting & sabbaticals • Training line managers to respond to differences - cultural, languages, generational, technology • Bringing retirees back into workforce
Economic Outlook • Rise in healthcare costs is most important economic trend • Rise in costs of retiree health benefits & governmental programs • Labor shortage – projected in 2012 will have 21 million jobs and only 17 million new entrants into workplace • Cost of security & war on terrorism causes continued economic uncertainty
Social Outlook • Changing definition of family • 24/7 workplace • Broadening diversity – religious, ethnic and cultural • Poor educational performance US students • Women attaining higher rates of education and professional degrees versus men • Global health issues – HIV, SARS & bird flu, plus US has highest obesity rate
Percent Households by Type Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March 2002 Supplement
Science & Technology Outlook • Technology increases communications with employees and potential for monitoring employees • Increased theft of intellectual property and identity theft • Skills quickly become outdated and gap in skills learning – rich vs. poor and young vs. old • E-learning any time & any place • Wearable computer devices
Political Outlook • Focus on Global and domestic security driving political agenda • Health care privacy and portability legislation • Increased political partisanship and state reactions related to the political party in power • Increasing grassroots pressures on labor practices • Political impact of federal deficit and cost of war in Iraq • Weakening of Affirmative Action - policies tested in courts
International Outlook • Exporting of US manufacturing & other white collar jobs • Ethnic strife causing segregation of cultures and increased anti-Americanism • English spoken by ¼ of world’s population • Spanish is second language of US • Development of global labor standards
Employment Outlook • Rising health care costs, continued double digit increase per annum over next 5 years • Employee demand for flexible work schedules & telecommuting • Growth in women and minority owned business • Benefits & compensation structured for diverse population and varied needs • Increase in hiring college grads and highly skilled workers
US Census Bureau, 2004 Supplement • Average all states – educational background • 25.5% have some college • 18.1% have bachelor’s degree • 9.6% have advanced degree • State of Tennessee – educational background • 23.0% have some college • 17% have bachelor’s degree • 7.3% have advanced degree
Measuring Up 2006 – Report Card on Higher Education by National Center Public Policy and Higher Education • In Tennessee 33% aged 18-24 were enrolled in college in 2006 • Compared to top ranking states at 41% • Ranking TN below Korea, Greece, Finland, Belgium, Ireland, Poland, Australia, France, Hungary, Spain and New Zealand • 2006 Tennessee Report Card • Preparation = C- (up) • Participation = C- (up) • *Affordability = F (neutral) • Completion = B (up) • Benefits = C+ (up)
The Value of a College Degree?US Census Bureau, 2004 Supplement • Average all States – avg. personal income • $25,053 with high school diploma • $48,417 with college degree • $70,851 with advanced degree • State of Tennessee - avg. personal income • $21,815 with high school diploma • $43,644 with college degree • $67,986 with advanced degree • For 2007, adjusted for annual 4% increase = $49,093 with college degree
% Change in Number of Jobs by Education Source Projected 2000-2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Are They Really Ready to Work?Study by SHRM, Conference Board, Partnership 21st Century, Corp. Voices Working Families • 63% predict a foreign language is important basic skill • Critical thinking 77.8% and creativity/innovation 73.6% are top two responses for increasing in importance • Top three applied skills important to the workplace are professionalism, teamwork and oral communications. • Employers list top deficiencies for college grads – written communications, leadership ability and professionalism.
Actions HR Professionals are Taking in Response to Trends • Training managers to respond to generational differences • Changes in health care policies and plans in response to demographic changes • Changes in policies as response to federal and state regulations • Strategic HR planning and succession planning related to recruiting and retaining diverse employees • Increasing use of technology to perform transactional HR functions, and use of technology for more employee self service applications
Actions HR Professionals are Taking in Response to Trends • Increasing HR’s role in corporate ethics and crisis management • Increasing investment in training for employees and HR staff • Building human capitol factors/metrics into key business transactions & planning to increase productivity to offset higher cost of business • More policies for work/life balance • Increase in policies for safety and security
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