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6th Annual AFRICANDO Trade and Investment Symposium July 22-26, 2003Miami, Florida The Future of Global Tourism The Travel Agent /Tour operator Perspective Gaynelle Henderson-Bailey,Ph.D Henderson Associates, Inc & Henderson Travel and Tours
2003 Travel Weekly Survey of Travel Agents • The Economy, a major focus for Travelers • The Economy, is a Bigger Deterrent than Terrorism • Traveler Concerns had stabilized
I The State of World Travel and Global Tourism Today from a U.S. Travel Agent/ Tour Operator Perspective The travel industry has experienced an unprecedented number of assaults: • Elimination of Airline Commissions • Internet • 9/11 • Weak economy and stock market • War in Iraq • SARS • Inconveniences of Increased Airport security
Economy Major Focus For Travelers If Clients’ concern about traveling decreased in the past three to six months, where has their concern shifted?
Compared with three months ago, are clients more or less concerned about traveling? Less concerned More concerned No change
Segments of our society are returning to pre- 9/11 levels of travel • Trends of the Affluent
II International Travel is Down The Harris Poll results: • 19% not traveling to Europe • 20% not traveling to any other international destination • 16% will spend vacation in U.S The TIA War Impact Survey • - 71% of Americans are not interested in traveling overseas.
III Cruise Travel Cruises remains a growth industry • Carnival • Royal Caribbean Cruises
IV Hotels Many hotels saw their profits plummet in the wake of terrorism, war, faltering economies and disease. • Marriott revenues up 12% to $2 billion and net earnings increased 41% to $116 Billion • Hilton net income of $9 million, down 74% from $ 34 million. Revenue dropped to $ 917 million. • Starwood Flat at $1.1 billion • Cendant net earnings down 10% to $ 309 million lodging revenue flat; car rental & travel technol0gy flat.
V Online Travel Sellers • Expedia- quadrupled its earnings • Travelocity- contributed $ 80 million to Sabre’s revenues • GetThere- contributed $12 million to Sabre’s revenues
VI The Airlines The airlines remain bogged down in the worst slump in Aviation History • Billions of dollars in Losses • Smaller, regional, “no frills” airlines are profitable • US Airways, United in Bankruptcy
The Future OutLook • Airline Industry will prevail with continued corporate cost-cutting and restructuring / reduction of routes • As the economy improves, tourism will rebound • More reliance on internet • Cruise travel will continue to thrive • Hotels must be more vigilant about security and more sensitive to market demand • Travel Agents
As the World Tourism Organization (WTO) stated, “Despite the crisis…..or perhaps because of it in so far as it has opened the eyes of many with regard to its economic importance – tourism has continued to be among the top export categories at the international level.