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New Jersey Industry and Occupational Employment Projections: 2004-2014 Employment Projections provide an analytical estimation of future employment within an industry or occupation This data can be collected and analyzed in two different ways: By residence By place of work

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slide2
Employment Projections provide an analytical estimation of future employment within an industry or occupation

This data can be collected and analyzed in

two different ways:

  • By residence
  • By place of work

These projections are by place of work.

slide3
Employment Projections provide an analytical estimation of future employment within an industry or occupation

These projections are based on long-term

trends and known future developments.

Projections are not policy driven.

They will show what the state’s industry and

occupational profile will look like, given past

trends and the changing demographic

structure of the population.

this is the second set of projections using
This is the second set of projections using

NAICS* Codes

*North American Industry Classification System

naics replaces
NAICS replaces…

the old

Standard Industrial Classification

(SIC)

which was geared toward a

manufacturing economy.

from 2004 to 2014 new jersey is projected to lag the nation s growth for total employment
From 2004 to 2014, New Jersey Is Projected to Lag the Nation’s Growth for Total Employment…

14.1%

10.1%

Total Employment

slide7
Employment in the goods-producing industries is projected to decline in New Jersey and be relatively flat for the nation.

14.1%

10.1%

-8.4%

-0.1%

Total Employment

Goods Producing

fast growth is projected for the service producing industries in both new jersey and the nation
Fast growth is projected for the service-producing industries in both New Jersey and the nation.

17.0%

14.1%

12.8%

10.1%

-8.4%

-0.1%

Total Employment

Goods Producing

Service Producing

slide9
Service-Producing industries are projected to account for all of the employment growth in New Jersey.

Total Employment

Goods Producing

Service Producing

the same trend is expected for the nation
The same trend is expected for the nation.

Total Employment

Goods Producing

Service Producing

the nation s annual rate of growth is projected to continue to outpace that of new jersey
The nation’s annual rate of growth is projected to continue to outpace that of New Jersey.

Annual Growth Rate

slide13

Employment losses in the goods-producing industries will result from manufacturing declines, which offset gains in the construction sector.

Goods Producing

Total Manufacturing

Construction

slide14
The manufacturing sector is projected to experience losses across the board, with these industries as the leading contributors.

(6,600)

(6,500)

(6,000)

(5,200)

(4,700)

(59,900)

slide15
Employment losses in the manufacturing sector have long been the trend in New Jersey, but the rate of decline is slowing.

726,800

456,000

338,200

278,300

-4.6%

per year

-2.9%

-1.9%

per year

per year

1984

1994

2004

2014

slide16
Employment in construction will continue to grow, but at a much slower pace than during the construction boom of the late 1990s

183,600

165,900

129,100*

121,700

1.0%

3.1%

-0.6%

per year

per year

per year

* Estimated figure based on Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)

slide18
More than 60% of all projected job growth will occur in the Health Care & Social Assistance, Professional & Business, and Trade industries.

Health Care & Social Assistance

Professional & Business Services

Trade, Retail & Wholesale

All Other Services

slide19

The Health Care & Social Assistance industry is projected to continue its steady and robust growth of more than 100,000 jobs every ten years.

This industry added 107,500 jobs from 1994-2004.

From 2004-2014, it is projected to add another 113,800 jobs.

slide20
Social Assistance and Ambulatory Health Care Services will account for nearly 70% of all employment growth in this industry.

113,800

25,800

52,300

*Offices of Physicians, Dentists, Outpatient Centers, and Home Health Care

Employment Growth

slide21
The Professional & Business Services industry group is projected to further close the gap to become New Jersey’s leader in employment.

*In 1994, the Trade sector accounted for 180,000 more jobs than Professional & Business Services

*By 2014, the gap is projected to close to just under 80,000

slide22
The three industries below are projected to account for more than half of the total growth in the Professional & Business Services group.

107,800

6,400

9,500

42,300

*The employment services industry is projected to grow by more than 40% by 2014

Employment Growth

slide23
The Trade sector continues to be New Jersey’s largest in total employment, two-thirds of which is comprised by Retail Trade.

770,900

699,000

630,700

top 10 industries with the greatest employment growth 2004 2014
Top 10 Industries With the Greatest Employment Growth, 2004-2014

Ambulatory Health Care

Employment Services

Food Services & Drinking Places

Social Assistance

Rel., Grantmaking, Civic, Prof., Organizations

Notice that 4 of the top 7 are related to the Health Care & Social Assistance industry

Nursing/Residential Care Facilities

Hospitals

Food and Beverage Stores

Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods

Specialty Trade Contractors

top 10 industries with the greatest percentage employment growth 2004 2014
Top 10 Industries With the Greatest Percentage Employment Growth, 2004-2014

Employment Services

Social Assistance

Ambulatory Health Care

Rel., Grantmaking, Civic, Prof., Organizations

Amusement, Gambling & Recreation

Notice that 3 of the top 6 are related to the Health Care & Social Assistance industry

Nursing/Residential Care Facilities

Mgmt., Sci. & Tech. Consulting

Building Mat. & Garden Equip. & Supplies Dlrs

Food Services & Drinking Places

Health & Personal Care Stores

top 10 industries with the greatest employment decline 2004 2014
Top 10 Industries With the Greatest Employment Decline, 2004-2014

Computer & Elec. Products Mfg

Chemical Mfg

Machinery Mfg

Fabricated Metal Mfg

Paper Mfg

Food Mfg

Notice that the only non-manufacturing industry to crack the top 10 is General Merchandise Stores

Printing & Related Mfg

Plastics & Rubber Products Mfg

Transportation Equipment Mfg

General Merchandise Stores

top 10 industries with the greatest percentage employment decline 2004 2014
Top 10 Industries With the Greatest Percentage Employment Decline, 2004-2014

Transportation Equipment Mfg

Machinery Mfg

Paper Mfg

Computer & Elec. Products Mfg

Fabricated Metal Mfg

Nonmetallic Mineral Products Mfg

Notice that the entire list of the top 10 is comprised of manufacturing industries

Printing & Related Mfg

Plastics & Rubber Products Mfg

Food Mfg

Chemical Mfg

slide31
9.5% Employment Growth, 2004-2014
  • 147,970 Average Annual Job Openings, 2004-2014
slide32
9.5% Employment Growth, 2004-2014
  • 147,970 Average Annual Job Openings, 2004-2014
  • Greater than two-thirds of these Job Openings will be “Replacements”
slide33

Job Openings

New Jobs

Jobs created by projected growth within industries.

Replacements

Jobs created by the need to replace workers who leave an occupation because they retire, assume family responsibilities, return to school, become ill, or some other reason.

nearly 60 of all jobs in 2004 were categorized as office service or professional occupations
Nearly 60% of all jobs in 2004 were categorized as Office, Service, or Professional occupations.

Total Employment

service professional management occupations are projected to have the highest percentage growth
Service, Professional & Management occupations are projected to have the highest percentage growth.

Production

slide36
More than 65% of total employment growth by 2014 is projected to take place within Service and Professional occupations.

Production

Employment Growth

slide37
Average annual job openings in each occupational group are due more to replacement needs than actual growth.

12,930

29,980

36,680

19,280

23,610

5,390

4,890

Annual Average Job Openings

5,690

10,870

slide38
By 2014, the occupational distribution should look something like this. Notice that the top three make up almost 60% of all employment.

Management/Financial 10.1%

Transportation 7.8%

Installation/Maintenance 3.6%

Production 4.4%

Professional 20.7%

Construction 4.2%

Office 18.0%

Service 20.1%

Sales 10.9%

management business and financial occupations
Management, Business, and Financial Occupations

11.3% net growth or 48,700 jobs

Led by growth in:

  • General and Operations Managers

12.5% Growth or 6,650 jobs

  • Accountants and Auditors

15.1% Growth or 5,450 jobs

  • Employment, Recruitment, and

Placement Specialists

22.2% Growth or 1,900 jobs

professional and related occupations
Professional and Related Occupations

12.7% net growth or 107,500 jobs

Led by growth in:

  • Registered Nurses

25.6% Growth or 20,550 jobs

  • Elementary School Teachers,

except Special Education

11.6% Growth or 7,100 jobs

  • Preschool Teachers, except Special Education

42.1% Growth or 6,500 jobs

service occupations
Service Occupations

17.3% net growth or 140,650 jobs

Led by growth in:

  • Janitors & Cleaners, except Maids & Housekeepers

15.3% Growth or 13,500 jobs

  • Combined Food Preparation

& Serving Workers

18.3% Growth or 11,650 jobs

  • Home Health Aides

50.2% Growth!!! or 10,600 jobs

sales and related occupations
Sales and Related Occupations

7.9% net growth or 37,900 jobs

Led by growth in:

  • Retail Salespersons

11.8% Growth or 15,550 jobs

  • Sales Representatives,

Wholesale & Manufacturing

13.8% Growth or 6,000 jobs

  • Cashiers

5.4% Growth or 5,700 jobs

office and administrative support occupations
Office and Administrative Support Occupations

4.6% net growth or 38,250 jobs

Led by growth in:

  • Customer Service Representatives

18.1% Growth or 10,550 jobs

  • Receptionists and Information

Clerks

17.9% Growth or 5,750 jobs

  • Medical Secretaries

14.7% Growth or 5,350 jobs

construction and extraction occupations
Construction and Extraction Occupations

10.0% net growth or 17,950 jobs

Led by growth in:

  • Carpenters

10.7% Growth or 3,600 jobs

  • Electricians

12.5% Growth or 2,500 jobs

  • Plumbers, Pipefitters &

Steamfitters

16.3% Growth or 2,150 jobs

installation maintenance and repair occupations
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations

8.6% net growth or 13,250 jobs

Led by growth in:

  • Automotive Service Technicians

& Mechanics

12.7% Growth or 2,950 jobs

  • Maintenance & Repair

Workers, General

9.1% Growth or 2,950 jobs

  • Heating, Air Conditioning, and

Refrigeration Mechanics & Installers

18.7% Growth or 1,750 jobs

production occupations
Production Occupations

10.5% net decline or -24,400 jobs

Largest declines in:

  • Sewing Machine Operators

33.8% Decline or -2,500 jobs

  • Cutting, Punching, & Press Machine Setters,

Operators & Tenders, Metal & Plastic

28.1% Decline or -1,450 jobs

  • Packaging and Filling Machine

Operators & Tenders

8.9% Decline or -1,400 jobs

transportation and material moving occupations
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations

8.4% net growth or 28,500 jobs

Led by growth in:

  • Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer

11.6% Growth or 5,500 jobs

  • Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services

14.8% Growth or 5,400 jobs

  • Laborers and Freight, Stock

& Material Movers, Hand

6.1% Growth or 5,000 jobs

10 occupations with the greatest employment increase 2004 2014
10 Occupations With the Greatest Employment Increase, 2004-2014

Registered Nurses

Retail Salespersons

Janitors & Cleaners

Combined Food Preparation & Serving Worker, Incl. Fast Food

Home Health Aides

Excluding RNs and teachers, these are all relatively low paying jobs requiring minimal training

Customer Service Representatives

Waiters & Waitresses

Child Care Workers

Nursing Aides, Orderlies & Attendants

Elementary School Teachers, except Special Education

10 occupations with the greatest percentage increase 2004 2014
10 Occupations With the Greatest Percentage Increase, 2004-2014

Veterinary Technologists & Technicians

Home Health Aides

Medical Assistants

Network Systems & Data Communication Analysts

Preschool Teachers, Ex. Special Education

Veterinary Assistants & Laboratory Animal Caretakers

6 of the top 10 are related to Health Care, including Veterinary services

Personal & Home Care Aides

Veterinarians

Farmworkers & Laborers, Crop, Nursery & Greenhouse

Interviewers, Ex. Eligibility & Loan

10 occupations with the greatest employment decline 2004 2014
10 Occupations With the Greatest Employment Decline, 2004-2014

Stock Clerks & Order Fillers

Secretaries, Ex. Legal, Medical & Executive

File Clerks

Word Processors & Typists

Order Clerks

Computer Programmers

Surprisingly, only 1 of the top 10 are classified as Production Occupations…

Mail Clerks & Mail Machine Operators, Ex. Postal Service

Sewing Machine Operators

Computer Operators

Telemarketers

10 occupations with the greatest percentage decline 2004 2014
10 Occupations With the Greatest Percentage Decline, 2004-2014

Meter Readers, Utilities

Credit Authorizers, Checkers & Clerks

Mail Clerks & Machine Operators, Ex. Postal Service

Photographic Processing Machine Operators

File Clerks

Computer Operators

Sewing Machine Operators

…while 3 make this list

Telephone Operators

Machine Feeders & Offbearers

Cutting, Punching & Press Machine Setters, Operators & Tenders, Metal & Plastic

10 occupations with the most average annual job openings 2004 2014
10 Occupations with the Most Average Annual Job Openings, 2004-2014

Retail Salespersons

6,340

Cashiers

5,680

Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Incl. Fast Food

3,940

3,740

Registered Nurses

Waiters & Waitresses

3,700

Laborers & Freight, Stock & Material Movers, Hand

3,210

Excluding RNs, each of these attributes more openings to replacements than new jobs

Janitors & Cleaners

3,020

2,790

Office Clerks, General

2,220

Stock Clerks & Order Fillers

Child Care Workers

2,130

issues impacting employment growth
Issues Impacting Employment Growth
  • Productivity growth
  • Benefit costs
  • Business cycle
  • Outsourcing
if you have any questions please contact
If you have any questions, please contact:

Thomas Sheppard @ 609-984-7616

-or-

Robert Vaden @ 609-984-2170

Visit our Website:

www.nj.gov/labor/lra