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American Public Perception of Mars Mission Economics: Establishing a Proper Context Brian Enke SwRI Boulder, CO benke@boulder.swri.edu AUTHOR: Shadows of Medusa GOALS Put the U.S. investment in manned spaceflight into a proper CONTEXT.

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american public perception of mars mission economics establishing a proper context
American Public Perception ofMars Mission Economics:Establishing a Proper Context

Brian Enke

SwRI

Boulder, CO

benke@boulder.swri.edu

AUTHOR:

Shadows of Medusa

goals
GOALS
  • Put the U.S. investment in manned spaceflight into a proper CONTEXT.
  • Provide "Take-Home Points" to assist with damage control.
outline
Outline
  • Public Perception
  • Baseline Mission
  • NASA Budget
  • US Government Budget
  • US Economic Activity
  • Public Perception
icr poll for the associated press 7 28 2003

75% believe the space program is a good investment!

Humans-to-Mars favored (49% vs 42%)

Conclusion: Many people believe a manned Mars mission would not be a good investment, i.e. too expensive

ICR Poll for the Associated Press(7/28/2003)
icr poll for the associated press 7 28 20035

Quote from a retiree in New Jersey:

"We can go there after all the things wrong on Earth are fixed. I'm totally against any of it. It's a total waste of money we need for our kids, for illnesses, could put somebody's kids through college, could cure so many diseases."

ICR Poll for the Associated Press(7/28/2003)
take home point
Take-Home Point!

Health, Education, and Welfare are IMPORTANT investments!

We should never advocate reducing the funding for these programs. We don't need to.

slide7
76% would increase NASA funding or keep it unchanged

59% believe humans will set foot upon Mars within 25 years! (18% < 10 years)

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)
slide8
83% believe a manned space program is important!

HOWEVER......

24% believe the US should end its manned space program altogether

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)
less than 1 1 to 5 5 to 10 more than 10 not sure
Less than 1%

1% to 5%

5% to 10%

More than 10%

Not sure

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

Question 2: What percentage of the federal budget do you think is spent each year on the nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

less than 1 20 1 to 5 37 5 to 10 19 more than 10 17 not sure 8
Less than 1% 20%

1% to 5% 37%

5% to 10% 19%

More than 10% 17%

Not sure 8%

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

Question 2: What percentage of the federal budget do you think is spent each year on the nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

take home point11
Take-Home Point!

Watch out for loaded survey questions!!!

less than 1 20 1 to 5 37 5 to 10 19 more than 10 17 not sure 812
Less than 1% 20% <----

1% to 5% 37%

5% to 10% 19%

More than 10% 17%

Not sure 8%

Zogby International - Research Poll(7/3/03)

Question 2: What percentage of the federal budget do you think is spent each year on the nation's manned and unmanned space programs?

ipsos public affairs poll for ap 1 12 2004

5 questions; Margin of error: +/- 3%,

Conducted before Presidential vision announced

Rumors of a “trillion dollar space boondoggle”

“Bush” Moon/Mars plan opposed (43% - 52%)

“United States” Moon/Mars plan split (48% - 48%) (9% swing)

Ipsos - Public Affairs Poll for AP(1/12/2004)
ipsos public affairs poll for ap 1 12 200414

Q1: ... expanding the space program ... Considering all the potential costs and benefits ...

Q2: Some have suggested that space exploration on the moon and Mars would be more affordable using robots than sending humans...

Q4: ... our investment in space research ... better spent on domestic programs such as health care and education?

Ipsos - Public Affairs Poll for AP(1/12/2004)
poor terminology cost vs investment lack of accurate information rumors lack of context
Poor terminology: cost vs investment

Lack of accurate information (rumors)

Lack of CONTEXT

"The space program is too expensive!!"Where does this perception come from?
slide16
Public Perception
  • Baseline Mission
  • NASA Budget
  • US Government Budget
  • US Economic Activity
  • Public Perception
mission baseline mars direct
Mission Baseline: Mars Direct
  • Goal: Good science
  • Crew of 4 for 2 years
  • 500 km surface range
  • Payload: 54 tonnes
  • Risk: Medium
  • 7 years to develop
  • $3.5 billion / year
take home points
Take-Home Points!

INVESTMENT PER YEAR is a good metric to use.

Media estimates like "One Trillion Dollars" are meaningless rubbish.

take home points21
Take-Home Points!

ONGOING investment/year is more interesting than DEVELOPMENT investment/year

A reasonable ongoing estimate for a Mars science mission is $3.5 billion/year

slide22
Public Perception
  • Baseline Mission
  • NASA Budget
  • US Government Budget
  • US Economic Activity
  • Public Perception
what is nasa s proposed 2005 budget 145 billion 42 billion 33 billion 16 billion 9 billion
What is NASA's proposed 2005 budget?

$145 Billion

$ 42 Billion

$ 33 Billion

$ 16 Billion

$ 9 Billion

NASA Budget Question:
what is nasa s proposed 2005 budget 145 billion 42 billion 33 billion 16 billion 9 billion24
What is NASA's proposed 2005 budget?

$145 Billion

$ 42 Billion

$ 33 Billion

$ 16 Billion <------

$ 9 Billion

NASA Budget Answer:
what percentage of the 2004 nasa budget is invested in human space flight 92 72 52 32 12
What percentage of the 2004 NASA budget is invested in “Human Space Flight"?

92 %

72 %

------> 52 %

32 %

12 %

NASA Budget Answer:
nasa budget 2005 proposed billions from www nasa gov about budget index html

TOTAL OUTLAYS: $16.2 100%

Space Science: $ 4.1 25%

Earth Science: $ 1.5 9%

Biological/Physical Research: $ 1.0 6%

Aeronautics: $ 0.9 6%

Education: $ 0.2 1%

Space Flight (ISS, Shuttle, Ops): $ 6.7 41%

ISS, Ops: $ 2.4

Shuttle: $ 4.3

Exploration Systems: $ 1.9 11%

NASA Budget: 2005(proposed, billions) (from www.nasa.gov/about/budget/index.html)
take home point28
Take-Home Point!

The proposed 2005 budget for the Space Shuttle and Exploration Systems is $6.2 billion per year.

But what does this number really mean? We still need a proper CONTEXT.

slide29
Public Perception
  • Baseline Mission
  • NASA Budget
  • US Government Budget
  • US Economic Activity
  • Public Perception
slide30
What is the proposed US Federal Budget for 2005?

$ 2400 Billion

$ 1700 Billion

$ 1000 Billion

$ 800 Billion

$ 300 Billion

US Government Budget Question:
slide31
What is the proposed US Federal Budget for 2005?

$ 2400 Billion <----

$ 1700 Billion

$ 1000 Billion

$ 800 Billion

$ 300 Billion

US Government Budget Answer:
take home point32
Take-Home Point!

The entire 2005 NASA budget is ~$16 billion, LESS THAN ONE PERCENT of the federal budget.

Note: This is still true even when the $5.7 billion NSF budget is added.

slide33

TOTAL OUTLAYS: $2400 (100%)

Social Security: $ 510 (21%)

Medicare/Medicaid: $ 478 (20%)

$ 445 (19%)

Defense: $ 429 (18%)

Health & Human Services: $ 68 ( 2.8%)

Education: $ 57 ( 2.4%)

Homeland Security: $ 47 ( 2.0%)

HUD: $ 31 ( 1.3%)

NASA budget: $ 16 ( 0.7%)

2005 US Government Budget(proposed, billions) (from http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/tables.html)
slide34

TOTAL OUTLAYS: $2400 (100%)

Social Security: $ 510 (21%)

Medicare/Medicaid: $ 478 (20%)

BUDGET DEFICIT: $ 445 (19%)

Defense: $ 429 (18%)

Health & Human Services: $ 68 ( 2.8%)

Education: $ 57 ( 2.4%)

Homeland Security: $ 47 ( 2.0%)

HUD: $ 31 ( 1.3%)

NASA budget: $ 16 ( 0.7%)

2005 US Government Budget(proposed, billions) (from http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/tables.html)
slide35

TOTAL OUTLAYS: $2400 (100%)

Budget deficit: $ 445 ( 19%)

NASA budget: - $ 16 ( 0.7%)

-------

2005 budget deficit w/o NASA: $ 429 ( 18%)

2005 US Government Budget Without NASA(proposed, billions) (from http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2005/tables.html)
take home points36
Take-Home Points!

The US Government operates on DEFICIT / SURPLUS spending.

Any money "saved" reduces the deficit.

Any money spent elsewhere increases the deficit.

take home points37
Take-Home Points!

If the US Government wants to spend more money on welfare, health care, or education, IT WILL.

Investment in spaceflight is irrelevant to such decisions.

take home points38
Take-Home Points!

Deficits are paid off over time, possibly by our children and our grandchildren.

These are the same generations that will benefit the most from deficit INVESTMENTS into the space program.

misc us government investments billions from misc media gov sources

Budget deficit (2005): $ 445

Extra tax revenue – economy imprv. (2005): $ 82

Military weapons R&D (2005): $ 66

Proposed 6-year highway bill (2004): $ 53 ($318)

Iraq war (2003, est 3/24): $ 75

Med/Med fraud (yearly, est): $ 26

Airline bailout (2002): $ 20

Farm subsidies (2004): $ 19

NASA budget: $ 16

Med/Med cost overrun (2004, est): $ 4 +

Mars Direct (not): $ 4

Misc US Government Investments(billions) (from misc media/gov sources)
us state government statistics billions from http www census gov and http www state co us

Total US Population (8/12/2004): 293,985,161

Colorado population (7/2005 projected): 4,400,000 (1.5%)

2005 Colorado General Fund:

Total 2005 Outlay Request: $ 5.6 --> $ 374

Dept of Education: $ 3.2 --> $ 214

Dept of Health Care: $ 1.2 --> $ 83

Dept of Human Services: $ 0.5 --> $ 31

NASA budget: $ 0.2 <-- $ 16

(County? Local? ...)

(US) State Government Statistics(billions) (from http://www.census.gov and http://www.state.co.us)
slide41
Public Perception
  • Baseline Mission
  • NASA Budget
  • US Government Budget
  • US Economic Activity
  • Public Perception
united states economy billions

US GDP: 8/2003 - 7/2004 (www.bea.gov): $ 11649 (100%)

2005 proposed US Government Budget: $ 2400 (20.6%)

2005 proposed NASA Budget: $ 16 (0.14%)

United States Economy(billions)
misc us economy figures billions

US Trade deficit, June, 2004 (Commerce Dept): $ 56

Microsoft 2004 revenue: $ 37

Microsoft mid-2004 cash reserve: $ 50

Microsoft 2004 special dividend: $ 32

General Motors 2003 revenues: $ 186

General Motors end-2003 assets: $ 288

Walmart Q2/2004 revenues: $ 70

Misc US Economy Figures(billions)
more us economy figures billions

2002 State Farm "Administrative Fees" (State Farm): $ 7.0

Yearly 1990's golf course construction (USPGA): $ 9.5

Average assets of 10 random investment

management firms (Pacific Life, 2003): $ 390.7

Yearly Europe/US ice cream purchases (UN,USDA): $ 31.0

2002 US alcoholic beverages (www.usda.com): $ 114.0

Yearly artwork sold worldwide (art-exchange.com): $ 100.0

US yearly cost of spam e-mail (Nucleus Research, 7 min/day): $ 87.0

Hurricane Charley insurance payouts (est): (AP): $ 11.0

More US Economy Figures(billions)
take home points45
Take-Home Points!

Mars Direct can be funded...

  • By 1 out of every 8 ice cream purchases....
  • By 1 out of every 25 beer and wine purchases...
  • By reducing the cost of spam e-mail by 5%...
slide46
Public Perception
  • Baseline Mission
  • NASA Budget
  • US Government Budget
  • US Economic Activity
  • Public Perception
gallup research poll 7 2004 jim banke coalition for space exploration the space foundation

Sponsored by the Coalition for Space Exploration

No loaded up-front questions, less bias

Realistic CONTEXT provided

NASA budget request less than 1% this year

$55 per year for the average taxpayer

No political baggage

Gallup Research Poll(7/2004)(Jim Banke, Coalition for Space Exploration & The Space Foundation)
ipsos ap bush plan opposed 43 52 us plan split 48 48 gallup plan strongly favored 68 24
Ipsos-AP:

“Bush” plan opposed (43% - 52%)

“US” plan split (48% - 48%)

Gallup:

Plan strongly favored (68% - 24%)

Moon/Mars Initiative Support
take home point49
Take-Home Point!

To remove more than half (24% – 28%) the opposition to the Moon/Mars plan:

  • Remove politics
  • Cap the investment at 1% of the federal budget.
slide50

This presentation may be freely distributed. Please contact the author with any suggestions or corrections.

  • http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~benke/present/mars/economics2004.html

Brian Enke

Southwest Research Institute

benke@boulder.swri.edu

Author: Shadows of Medusa

www.shadowsofmedusa.com