making project decisions n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Making Project Decisions PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Making Project Decisions

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 20

Making Project Decisions - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 132 Views
  • Uploaded on

Making Project Decisions. Life’s. The noblest of pleasure is the joy of understanding Leonardo De Vinci. Decision Issues - 1. Two skills critical to the quality of life are: Parenting Decision Making. Formal training in either is rare. Fit Decision Maker. A Fit Decision Maker.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Making Project Decisions' - Lucy


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
making project decisions

Making Project Decisions

Life’s

The noblest of pleasure is the joy of understanding

Leonardo De Vinci

decision issues 1
Decision Issues - 1
  • Two skills critical to the quality of life are:
    • Parenting
    • Decision Making

Formal training in either is rare

a fit decision maker

Fit Decision Maker

A Fit Decision Maker
  • Understands the decision significance
  • Has the right decision statement
  • Knows the proper frame and the associated selection criteria
  • Knows the amount of uncertainty
  • Knows the information required and how to get it
  • Is skilled in the right decision process
  • Is able to manage peer group biases
  • Is emotionally centered and fit to make the decision
systems engineering decisions
Systems Engineering Decisions
  • Requirements Determination
  • Concept Selection
  • Architecture Selection
  • Interface Definition
  • Specification Quantification
  • Requirements Flowdown
  • Lower Level Concepts and Architectures
  • Verification Plans
  • Validation Plans
  • Anomaly Resolution
  • Etc.
decision significance and uncertainty
Decision Significance and Uncertainty

First Customer for Bungee Jumping With New Company

Critical Decision Zones

Selecting A New Restaurant

Uncertainty

Open Heart Surgery By World’s Best Surgeon

Selecting A Beverage To Drink

Significance of Decision Consequence

high uncertainty and high consequence example
High Uncertainty and High Consequence Example

Accident ruling over bungee jump death Feb 25 2005Evidence from an inquest into the horrific death of a 22-year-old Welsh student at a charity jump raises safety concerns for jumpers across the UK. Chris Thomas plunged to his death after leaping from a 180ft crane in the car park of a pub in Swansea. An inquest heard yesterday that Chris weighed 132kg. But an expert investigation discovered that the rope holding him had a maximum load weight of just 90kg, and should not have safely held more than 70kg.

two relevant questions
Two Relevant Questions

We want to make good decisions, so what is a “good decision?”

How are decisions and consequences related?

a good decision
A Good Decision
  • A good decision is an alternative selection based on sound logic and relevant information (the head factor) and the selection is consistent with ethics based instincts (the heart factor)
  • A good decision selects the alternative with the best chance of achieving the opportunity (outcome) given the information available at the time
  • Decision processes provide guidance to achieving a logical selection
outcomes consequences
Outcomes (Consequences)
  • A good decision can result in a good or bad outcome
  • A bad decision can result in a good or bad outcome
  • Criticism of a good decision that resulted in bad outcome is unjustified, but it is common, especially by sports commentators
what is a decision
What is a Decision?

Application of opportunity-seeking judgment resulting in action

Decisions may or may not be binding

Consequences may or may not be permanent

Actions may include unmanageable risk

  • People judge themselves by their best intentions
  • Others judge people by their worst action

F

.

there are a variety of alternative judgment methods
There Are A Variety Of Alternative Judgment Methods

8. Probability Based

7. Fact Based

6. Expert Based

5. Intuition Based

4. Emotion Based

3. Addiction Based

2. Authority/Peer Pressure Based

1. Indifference Based

judgment process suitability
Judgment Process Suitability

4 and 5 may influence the final selection

Not suitable for business decisions

8. Probability Based

Defensible for business decisions

7. Fact Based

6. Expert Based

5. Intuition Based

4. Emotion Based

3. Addiction Based

2. Authority/Peer Pressure Based

1. Indifference Based

my younger brother takes on governor arnold schwarzenegger

Stockton Record

Front page,

22 September 2006

The point is…

What’s hard about decisions? Communication and language.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Lodi Resident Byng Forsberg

My Younger Brother Takes on Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger!

My younger brother is older than I am.

defensible decision processes
Defensible Decision Processes

7

Low Uncertainty Fact Based

6

Expert Based

8

High Uncertainty Probability Based

Pugh’s Method

Decision Tree Analysis

Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) aka Pairwise Comparison Analysis

Dominance Analysis

Kepner Tregoe (KTA) Analysis

Rank Summing

Bayesian Team Support

Expert Decides

Consequence Table and Even Swaps

Prioritize, Weight, and Rate +, 0, -

Prioritize, Weighted Scores & Other Factors

Prioritize, Weighted Scores & Other Factors

Requires uncertainty and value attitude knowledge

Requires beliefs, alternatives, preferences

Sums relative criteria rankings

Instant decision

Informed

Judgment

Increasing Uncertainty Of Relevant Decision Information

kepner tregoe form example
Kepner Tregoe Form - Example

Decision Statement:

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Alternative 3

Alternative 4

Evaluation Criteria:

Musts (Go/No-Go):

Score

Score

Score

Score

Wants:

Weight

Comments Raw

Comments Raw

Comments Raw

Comments Raw

R*W

R*W

R*W

R*W

( R )

( R )

( R )

( R )

Max Score (10xW):

Total Score:

Car

“I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving this goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth”

President John F Kennedy, May 25, 1961

kepner tregoe example
Kepner Tregoe - Example

Decision Statement:

Select the best vehicle to meet the needs of the Patrick family. (Mom, dad, and three kids, ages 5 to 16)

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Alternative 3

Alternative 4

Evaluation Criteria:

Domestic Car

Japanese Sports Car

Domestic Minivan

Italian Sports Car

Musts (Go/No-Go):

Y

Y

Y

N

  • Under $25,000

Y

N

Y

N

  • Transport 5 People

Score

Score

Score

Score

Wants:

Weight

Comments Raw

Comments Raw

Comments Raw

Comments Raw

R*W

R*W

R*W

R*W

( R )

( R )

( R )

( R )

  • 20.0 MPG

8

10

80

6

48

  • Fuel economy
  • 26.2 MPG

6

3

18

10

60

  • 7.0 sec
  • Good acceleration
  • 10.5 sec
  • Large Capacity
  • Carry Garden Supplies
  • Small capacity

10

2

20

10

100

  • Avg. Ratings
  • Crash Safety
  • High Ratings

9

10

90

7

63

  • Conservative
  • Good for dates (16 yo.)
  • “Cool image”

4

10

40

6

24

Max Score (10xW):

370

248

295

Total Score:

Max Score = Sum of Weights X 10

May wish to “normalize” so that max score is 100 or 1000

evaluate other factors that can influence the selection
Evaluate Other Factors That Can Influence The Selection

For the highest scoring alternatives evaluate other factors

Factors not evaluated

New evidence

Emerging opportunities

Emerging risks

Incorporate actions to enhance opportunities and mitigate risks

Re-score candidates

Make informed selection

TROUBLE! People in my path!

other factors evaluation kepner tregoe example
Other Factors Evaluation – Kepner-Tregoe Example

Decision Statement:

Select the best vehicle to meet the needs of the Patrick family. (Mom, dad, and three kids, ages 5 to 16)

Alternative 1

Alternative 2

Evaluation Criteria:

Alternative 3

Alternative 4

  • The decision process is not complete until other factors have been considered.
  • The highest scoring candidate may not be the best choice.

Domestic Car

Japanese Sports Car

Domestic Minivan

Italian Sports Car

Musts (Go/No-Go):

• Under $25,000

Y

Y

Y

N

• Transport 5 people

Y

N

Y

N

Wants:

Score

Score

Score

Score

Weight

Raw

(R)

Raw

(R)

Raw

(R)

Raw

(R)

Comments

Comments

Comments

Comments

R*W

R*W

R*W

R*W

• Fuel Economy

26.2 MPG avg.

10

80

20.0 MPG avg.

6

48

8

• Good acceleration

3

18

10

60

10.5 sec

7.0 sec

6

• Carry garden supplies

2

20

10

100

Small capacity

Large capacity

10

• Crash safety

10

90

7

63

9

High ratings

Ave. Ratings

• Good for dates (16 yo)

10

40

6

24

4

“Cool image”

Conservative

370

Max Score (10xW):

248

295

Total Score:

Mid-Size Domestic

Domestic Minivan

Residual Risk

Issue

P

S

Issue

S

P

1. If reliability does not improve from last year’s model (as dealer promised), the car will require service more often

H

L

1. Recent crash tests reveal poor occupant protection and new owners reporting below advertised gas mileage

H

H

P = Probability

S = Seriousness

H = High

M = Medium

L = Low

2. If family size is increased sedan will not be large enough

L

H

Selected

success in decision making in capability based acquisition concepts
Success in Decision Making in Capability-Based Acquisition Concepts
  • Customer involvement
    • Concurs in problem statement
    • Reviews and concurs with criteria and weights
    • Understands options (which include favored approach, if known)
    • Reviews final results before, not after, the presentation
  • Your management support when needed
  • Clear presentation of results
    • Use graphic display of numeric data whenever possible
    • Use KTA Matrix whenever possible
    • Use tabular display of numeric data as supporting info
slide20

Questions?

Comments?

Discussion?