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What Weather Forecast Information do People Get, Want, Need, Use, … ? Julie Demuth * and Daniel Nietfeld ** *NCAR Societal Impacts Program **NWS Omaha/Valley WFO IWT Workshop: Using the WAS*IS Approach January 22, 2009 Do you normally get forecasts during the time periods listed below?
Julie Demuth* and Daniel Nietfeld**
*NCAR Societal Impacts Program
**NWS Omaha/Valley WFO
IWT Workshop: Using the WAS*IS Approach
January 22, 2009
From 12 a.m. to before 6 a.m.
From 6 a.m. to before 8 a.m.
From 8 a.m. to before 11 a.m.
From 11 a.m. to before 1 p.m.
From 1 p.m. to before 4 p.m.
From 4 p.m. to before 7 p.m.
From 7 p.m. to before 12 a.m.
What do you think the actual high temp will be?
What are your concerns for a hazardous impact?
What does it all mean?!
N=1520 completed responses, but 3.6% of people say they never use weather forecasts …
this analysis based on N=1465 responses
There is a science to doing surveys!
(See Lazo et al. 2009 for all results)
recoded to lower-bound quantitative count of sources per month
Commercial or public radio
Average respondent gets weather forecasts 115 times per month.
Nearly 226 million U.S. adults 300 billion+ forecasts per year!*
Friends, family, co-workers, etc.
NOAA Weather Radio
Cell phone, PDA, pager, etc.
Telephone weather info source
* Accounts for 3.6% of respondents who never use weather forecasts.
When precip will occur
Chance of precip
Where precip will occur
Type of precip
Amount of precip
Chance of amount of precip
Time of day high temp will occur
Time of day low temp will occur
How cloudy it will be
A little important
Not at all important
(See Morss et al. 2008 for all results)
< 1 day
Forecast Lead Time
What does this
mean to you ?
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CST WED JAN 14 2009
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO BITTERLY COLD LEVELS BY TONIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS
REACHING 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ATCHISON
KANSAS TO RICHMOND...MARSHALL AND BOONVILLE. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE. THE ALREADY COLD START WILL HELP PUSH THURSDAY NIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY START TO INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LEADING TO ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
What do you think the actual high temperature will be?
What do you think best describes what the forecast means?
Percent of respondents
It will rain tomorrow in 60% of the region.
It will rain tomorrow for 60% of the time.
It will rain on 60% of the days like tomorrow.*
60% of weather forecasters believe that it will rain tomorrow.
I don’t know.
Other (please explain)
* Technically correct interpretation, according to how PoP forecasts are verified
Probability of Severe Hail
¾” or larger
Prefer Channel A
Prefer Channel B
Like both channels
Like neither channel
I don't know
Do you like the information given this way?
Chance of precipitation is 20%
There is a 1 in 5 chanceof precipitation
Theodds are 1 to 4that it will rain
There is a slight chanceof rain tomorrow
Asked this question 3 ways −
using PoPs of 20%, 50%, and 80% with corresponding text descriptions from NWS
PoP of 20%
PoP of 50%
PoP of 80%
N = 489,
…will most likely be 85°F, but it may be 70°F (WITHOUT explanation)
…will most likely be 85°F, but it may be 70°F, because a cold front may move through (WITH explanation)
…will be between 70°F and 85°F
…will be between 70°F and 85°F, because a cold front may move through
80% chance it will be 85°F, 20% chance it will be 70°F
80% chance it will be 85°F, 20% chance it will be 70°F, because a cold front may move through
Would you like the forecast given this way?
The high temperature tomorrow…
…will be 85°F
Will be 85°F
Without cold front explanation
With cold front explanation
Most likely 85°F but may be 70°F
80% chance 85°F, 20% chance 70°F
...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...
...THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
LINE/CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE CELLS NORTHEAST OF LAWTON IS VERY LOW TOPPED (20 K FT) AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT MAX (MCV) LEFT OVER FROM STORMS IN WEST TEXAS EARLIER. ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF VERY BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS OR PERHAPS A WEAK TORNADO... BUT DO NOT BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED MESOCYCLONE TYPE TORNADOESOR OTHER FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CELLS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN Z/V DATA FROM KFDR/KTLX FOR ANY SIGNS CONTRARY TO THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION.