THORPEX European Plan D. Majewski, DWD, Germany THORPEX - Overview Aims and structure of THORPEX European Plan Some comments on each section Possible contributions from European Met. Services THORPEX – Overview, Part I
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1) Predictability and Dynamical Processes (PDP, global-to-regional influences on the evolution and predictability of weather systems);
2) Observing Systems (OS, global observing-system design and demonstration);
3) Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies (DAOS, targeting and assimilation of observations);
4) Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA, societal, economic, and environmental benefits of improved forecasts).
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Display:EUMETNET - Meteoalarm
10 elements 5 colours
PDP (p16 – p18)
A1: T-NA(W)DEX far beyond European capabilities because measurements mainly in the western Atlantic; without US involvement not doable. Autumn not the best season for measurements of disturbances of the North Atlantic waveguide, winter would be better.
A2+A3: Strongly supported.
A4: More on Ensembles, e.g. multi-model (INM-SREPS, PEPS) vs. single model EPS; distinguish different forecast ranges: 0-3d, 3-5d, 5-14d.
A5: Strongly supported.
Diversity of DA-methods in Europe: Disadvantage or chance?
What is the general “European data assimilation and observing strategy”?
Is day 5 to 14 most important for high impact weather? SERA studies should answer this question! In Europe, short range (0-3d) forecasts have high priority (because of LAMs)
More DA for surface parameters strongly supported!
A1 – A7: Strongly supported. A5: More on ETKF!
Assimilation of radar data in km-scale models.
Surface DA, including the use of data from special observatories.
See comments on Section 3: As a starting point list high impact weather elements and quantify the corresponding damage in different European regions. Order them according to the possible damage reduction due to improved forecasts on different temporal scales. Indicate forecast lead time and temporal/spatial accuracy (as well as FAR and POD) needed by responsible users to take appropriate actions.
For the Actions: Why emphasis only on the medium range? High impact forecasts probably mainly short range due to the accuracy required (cost/loss ratio of prevention/damage).
Study flow of information from NMS to decision makers to public for high impact weather in all European countries. Improve cross-national flow of information.
Role of private service providers in high impact weather forecasts (“single voice”?)
Europe is well-placed to contribute to the regional component of TIGGE.
The general statement “deterministic short range forecasts give reliable prediction of synoptic scale features” is often not true for high impact weather systems over Europe, e.g. track and intensity of cyclones.
Evaluate the value of multi-model ensembles (INM-SREPS, PEPS)!
Table 1 items are rather incoherent (cyclones, QPF, polar influences).
Action 3: TIGGE-LAM up to 3 days; dx~10 km. Global EPS normally diverge > 2d; do we really need LBC data from global EPS? Initial data from EPS may be enough! Huge data volume for LBC! Evaluate SRNWP PEPS, INM SREPS, COSMO SREPS, GLAM EPS first before taking steps towards TIGGE-LAM!
Action 5: Design a European TIGGE-LAM up to 3 days; dx~10 km in conjunction with EUMETNET SRNWP! Here we have to give input! Who, when, how?
Actions 12-14 Strongly supported.
Why Eastern Europe separately? The “Iron Wall” does not exist since more than 15 years!
Concrete involvement of the European National Meteorological services in THORPEX European Plan!
Financing of THORPEX still a critical issue!
For the Appendix:
List of NWP consortia in Europe including their Websites.
List of NWP systems in all European countries (plus ECMWF).