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Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. presented by: David N. Griffiths. Wednesday, April 19, 2000. University of California. Maritime Aspects of Arms Control and Security Improvement in the Middle East David N. Griffiths. IGCC. author: David N. Griffiths

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slide1

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Maritime Aspects of Arms Control and Security Improvement in the Middle East

David N. Griffiths

IGCC

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide2

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Although most security issues in the Middle East are rooted ashore, maritime considerations are important because:

  • there are maritime aspects to many of the security questions
  • the maritime dimension of the region offers unique opportunities in terms of trust, security, and prosperity

2 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide3

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Naval vs. Maritime

Naval tends to focus ideas towards warships and naval stations

Maritime involves armed and unarmed agencies, as well as economic, environmental, and humanitarian issues

3 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide4

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

The Nature of Confidence Building

  • An activity, undertaken honestly and in good faith, in which two or more parties seek to achieve a positive change in their security relationship
  • From the perspective of strategic analysis arms control deals with the issue of capabilities while confidence building addresses intentions

4 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide5

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Traditional Confidence Building Measures Analysis

--James Macintosh 1985

  • Information
  • Constraint
  • Declaratory measures (“non-use of force”)
  • Problem: In 1996 Macintosh concluded that this approach mistakenly focuses on measures rather than on the activity of confidence building

5 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide6

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Confidence Building vs. Confidence Building Measures

  • Instead of focusing on the unsatisfactory present acknowledge the potential for a positive future
  • Avoid focusing on measures entirely and deal with activities
  • Do not allow choice of words to limit or distort thinking (i.e. Instead of ‘constraint’ the use of ‘restraint’)

6 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide7

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

A Typology for Practical Confidence

Builders

  • Based on Macintosh’s 1996 study Confidence Building in the Arms Control Process: A transformation view
  • Expressed in terms of actions instead of products
  • Consideration shifts from measures to steps
  • Restraint replaces constraint
  • A category for ‘cooperation’ is added

7 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide8

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

  • Steps in the Building of Confidence
  • Cooperation in:
  • safety
  • security
  • economic prosperity
  • technology
  • peacekeeping
  • Restraint of:
      • activity
      • deployment
      • technology
  • Verification and Observation Facilitation:
          • providing opportunities to observe activities
          • observation of activities of interest
          • inspection
          • monitoring
          • facilitation of verification
  • Information, interaction, and communication:
  • exchanging information
  • sharing experience
  • establishing means of communication
  • notification of activities

8 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide9

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Maritime Confidence Building Experience

Naval arms control efforts have been limited compared to those addressing land and airborne forces due to:

  • The problem of asymmetries in relation to maritime power and interests
  • Navies have roles other than war-fighting serving as diplomatic instruments in a way that armies and air forces are not

9 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide10

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Maritime Confidence Building Experience

Prevention of Incidents at Sea (INCSEA)

  • US/Soviet agreement has been honored since 1972 even during considerable diplomatic tension and disputes
  • Its success has led to similar agreements around the world
  • Although it did not prevent all incidents it was effective in keeping incidents from escalating

10 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide11

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Other INCSEA or Similar Maritime Safety Arrangements:

Germany & Poland (1990)

Middle East (1994)

US and China (1998)

INCSEAs between US/Russia and:

United States (1972)

United Kingdom (1986)

Canada (1989)

Germany (1989)

France (1989)

Italy (1989)

Netherlands (1990)

Norway (1990)

Spain (1990)

Greece (1991)

Japan (1993)

Republic of Korea (1994)

Turkey - discussions reportedly ongoing as of 1998

Portugal - discussions reportedly ongoing as of 1998

Other Maritime Initiatives:

Swedish Multilateral UN proposal

Western Pacific Naval Symposium

India-Pakistan

Greece-Turkey

Dangerous Military Activities Arrangements:

US/USSR (1990)

Canada/USSR (1991)

Greece/Russia (1993)

China/Russia (1993)

11 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide12

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Maritime Confidence Building Experience

Success of INCSEA is based on:

  • Mutual Interest
  • Simplicity
  • Professionalism
  • Preparation
  • Hospitality
  • Discretion
  • Verifiability and Accountability

12 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide13

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

The Middle East

  • In 1993 the Arms Control and Regional Security Working Group (ACRS) began consideration of a cooperative search and rescue and the consideration of an INCSEA agreement
  • The Middle East “Guidelines for Operating Procedures” has generated much interest and is reflected in the 1998 maritime safety agreement between the US and China

13 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide14

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

Asia-Pacific

  • Considerable need based on the great potential for maritime dispute
  • Maritime confidence building is active and well-established in both Track one and two approaches
  • In 1995 the ARF endorsed a Concept Paper which defines a regional approach to achieving security, peace, and prosperity as including confidence building measures

14 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide15

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

Indian Ocean

  • India and Pakistan have shown great interest in an INCSEA
  • Nuclear weapons testing may have damaged the potential for such an agreement in the region

15 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide16

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

Latin America

  • Confidence building in the region predates the CBM concept by 70 years
  • There are bilateral arrangements as well as multilateral efforts such as the Inter-American Naval Cooperation forum and the Naval War Colleges of the Americas
  • In 1995 the OAS issued the “Declaration of Santiago on Confidence and Security Building Measures”

16 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide17

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

The Caribbean

  • Addresses non-traditional and non-military security concerns
  • The region has already attained the type of security relations confidence building is intended to promote
  • There is potential for further measures to deal with current problems of drug-trafficking, economic vulnerability and environmental hazards

17 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide18

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

Euro-Atlantic

  • Illustrates the value of routine cooperation as a mechanism for confidence-building and dispute management
  • The region achieved this mutual trust through cooperation in NATO, WEU, and Partnership for Peace alliances

18 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide19

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Lessons from Maritime Cooperation

Characteristics:

  • Common experiences among those who earn their living on the sea
  • Navies have created a diplomatic role and tradition
  • Longstanding tradition of international consultation
  • Maritime issues are generally secondary security considerations so dialogue is not as controversial
  • Maritime economics are rarely the concern of one nation in isolation

19 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide20

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Lessons from Maritime Cooperation

INCSEA:

  • Any activity that engages former adversaries or rivals in working together is a powerful catalyst for confidence
  • Once confidence building is in progress there is less emphasis on prevention and constraint and new focus on coordination and cooperation

20 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide21

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Proposals for the Middle East:

  • A Historical Compendium
  • Senior Officer’s Dialogue
  • Staff Colleges
  • Maritime Information Exchange
  • Search and Rescue
  • Operational Safety

21 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

slide22

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Proposals for the Middle East continued:

  • Coastal Zone Management
  • Marine Transport
  • Cooperative Enforcement
  • Maritime Peacekeeping Training
  • Maritime Environmental and Diving Medicine

- Previous -

22 of 22

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc onlinehttp://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/publications/policy_papers/pp56.html