author: David N. Griffiths Pendragon Applied Research 3361 Lawrencetown Rd. Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia B - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Presentation Transcript

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

presented by: David N. Griffiths

Wednesday, April 19, 2000

University of California

Maritime Aspects of Arms Control and Security Improvement in the Middle East

David N. Griffiths

IGCC

author:David N. Griffiths

Pendragon Applied Research

3361 Lawrencetown Rd.

Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia

B2Z 1R5, Canada

Robinson Building Complex

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

email ph13@sdcc12.ucsd.edu f

for full text see igcc online http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/slides/pp56.html

Although most security issues in the Middle East are rooted ashore, maritime considerations are important because:

there are maritime aspects to many of the security questions
the maritime dimension of the region offers unique opportunities in terms of trust, security, and prosperity

2 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Naval vs. Maritime

Naval tends to focus ideas towards warships and naval stations

Maritime involves armed and unarmed agencies, as well as economic, environmental, and humanitarian issues

3 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

The Nature of Confidence Building

An activity, undertaken honestly and in good faith, in which two or more parties seek to achieve a positive change in their security relationship
From the perspective of strategic analysis arms control deals with the issue of capabilities while confidence building addresses intentions

4 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Traditional Confidence Building Measures Analysis

--James Macintosh 1985

Information
Constraint
Declaratory measures (“non-use of force”)
Problem: In 1996 Macintosh concluded that this approach mistakenly focuses on measures rather than on the activity of confidence building

5 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Confidence Building vs. Confidence Building Measures

Instead of focusing on the unsatisfactory present acknowledge the potential for a positive future
Avoid focusing on measures entirely and deal with activities
Do not allow choice of words to limit or distort thinking (i.e. Instead of ‘constraint’ the use of ‘restraint’)

6 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

A Typology for Practical Confidence

Builders

Based on Macintosh’s 1996 study Confidence Building in the Arms Control Process: A transformation view
Expressed in terms of actions instead of products
Consideration shifts from measures to steps
Restraint replaces constraint
A category for ‘cooperation’ is added

7 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Steps in the Building of Confidence
Cooperation in:
safety
security
economic prosperity
technology
peacekeeping
Restraint of:

activity
deployment
technology

Verification and Observation Facilitation:

providing opportunities to observe activities
observation of activities of interest
inspection
monitoring
facilitation of verification

Information, interaction, and communication:
exchanging information
sharing experience
establishing means of communication
notification of activities

8 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Maritime Confidence Building Experience

Naval arms control efforts have been limited compared to those addressing land and airborne forces due to:

The problem of asymmetries in relation to maritime power and interests
Navies have roles other than war-fighting serving as diplomatic instruments in a way that armies and air forces are not

9 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Prevention of Incidents at Sea (INCSEA)

US/Soviet agreement has been honored since 1972 even during considerable diplomatic tension and disputes
Its success has led to similar agreements around the world
Although it did not prevent all incidents it was effective in keeping incidents from escalating

10 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Other INCSEA or Similar Maritime Safety Arrangements:

Germany & Poland (1990)

Middle East (1994)

US and China (1998)

INCSEAs between US/Russia and:

United States (1972)

United Kingdom (1986)

Canada (1989)

Germany (1989)

France (1989)

Italy (1989)

Netherlands (1990)

Norway (1990)

Spain (1990)

Greece (1991)

Japan (1993)

Republic of Korea (1994)

Turkey - discussions reportedly ongoing as of 1998

Portugal - discussions reportedly ongoing as of 1998

Other Maritime Initiatives:

Swedish Multilateral UN proposal

Western Pacific Naval Symposium

India-Pakistan

Greece-Turkey

Dangerous Military Activities Arrangements:

US/USSR (1990)

Canada/USSR (1991)

Greece/Russia (1993)

China/Russia (1993)

11 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Success of INCSEA is based on:

Mutual Interest
Simplicity
Professionalism
Preparation
Hospitality
Discretion
Verifiability and Accountability

12 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Regional Approaches to Maritime Confidence Building

The Middle East

In 1993 the Arms Control and Regional Security Working Group (ACRS) began consideration of a cooperative search and rescue and the consideration of an INCSEA agreement
The Middle East “Guidelines for Operating Procedures” has generated much interest and is reflected in the 1998 maritime safety agreement between the US and China

13 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Asia-Pacific

Considerable need based on the great potential for maritime dispute
Maritime confidence building is active and well-established in both Track one and two approaches
In 1995 the ARF endorsed a Concept Paper which defines a regional approach to achieving security, peace, and prosperity as including confidence building measures

14 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Indian Ocean

India and Pakistan have shown great interest in an INCSEA
Nuclear weapons testing may have damaged the potential for such an agreement in the region

15 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Latin America

Confidence building in the region predates the CBM concept by 70 years
There are bilateral arrangements as well as multilateral efforts such as the Inter-American Naval Cooperation forum and the Naval War Colleges of the Americas
In 1995 the OAS issued the “Declaration of Santiago on Confidence and Security Building Measures”

16 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

The Caribbean

Addresses non-traditional and non-military security concerns
The region has already attained the type of security relations confidence building is intended to promote
There is potential for further measures to deal with current problems of drug-trafficking, economic vulnerability and environmental hazards

17 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Euro-Atlantic

Illustrates the value of routine cooperation as a mechanism for confidence-building and dispute management
The region achieved this mutual trust through cooperation in NATO, WEU, and Partnership for Peace alliances

18 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Lessons from Maritime Cooperation

Characteristics:

Common experiences among those who earn their living on the sea
Navies have created a diplomatic role and tradition
Longstanding tradition of international consultation
Maritime issues are generally secondary security considerations so dialogue is not as controversial
Maritime economics are rarely the concern of one nation in isolation

19 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Lessons from Maritime Cooperation

INCSEA:

Any activity that engages former adversaries or rivals in working together is a powerful catalyst for confidence
Once confidence building is in progress there is less emphasis on prevention and constraint and new focus on coordination and cooperation

20 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Proposals for the Middle East:

A Historical Compendium
Senior Officer’s Dialogue
Staff Colleges
Maritime Information Exchange
Search and Rescue
Operational Safety

21 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

Proposals for the Middle East continued:

Coastal Zone Management
Marine Transport
Cooperative Enforcement
Maritime Peacekeeping Training
Maritime Environmental and Diving Medicine

- Previous -

22 of 22

B2Z 1R5, Canada

9500 Gilman Drive

La Jolla, CA 92093-0518

phone 858.534.3352 fax 858.534.7655

for full text see igcc onlinehttp://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/publications/policy_papers/pp56.html

author: David N. Griffiths Pendragon Applied Research 3361 Lawrencetown Rd. Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia B - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'author: David N. Griffiths Pendragon Applied Research 3361 Lawrencetown Rd. Lawrencetown, Nova Scotia B' - LeeJohn