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Nowcasting - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Initial Claims vs. Google Trends. According to the NBER, the current recession started ... Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month ...

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PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Nowcasting' - Kelvin_Ajay


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Presentation Transcript
nowcasting

European Banking & Financial Forum 2010, Mar 23

Nowcasting

Using The Wisdom Of The Crowds To Avoid Panic, Hype and Data Lag

Mohammad Gawdat

Managing Director – Southern & Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa

Head Of Emerging Markets Council

also a good predictor of personal finance distress

Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example

1

Also a good predictor of personal finance distress

Personal finance distress shows high correlation with initial claims.

    • Unemployment rate in US is highest since early 80s recession.
    • Risk measures in credit market increase along with unemployment rate.
    • Initial Claims is primary leading indicator in Labor market.
  • So unemployment data is useful in other setors as well...
search behaviour also changes during a recession

Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example

  • CareerBuilder
  • Kelly Services
  • Manpower
  • Temp Agencies
  • Robert Half
  • Spherion
  • Aerotek
  • Walmart jobs
  • Appleone
  • Social Security
  • Social Security Office Locations
  • Social Security Administration
  • Unemployment Benefits
  • Social Security Disability
  • Social Security Gov
  • Unemployment Office
  • Food Stamps
  • Department of Labor
  • Monster
  • Indeed
  • Jobs
  • Job Search
  • Resume
  • Job Search Engines
  • Linkedin
  • Hotjobs
  • Cover Letter

1

Search Behaviour Also Changes During A Recession

Jobs

Welfare & Unemployment

Recruiting & Staffing

initial claims vs google trends

Behaviour As A Driver Of Trends – Unemployment Example

1

Initial Claims vs. Google Trends

Recession Starts

  • According to the NBER, the current recession started December 2007.
  • National unemployment rate passed 5% in mid 2008 and search queries on

[Welfare and Unemployment] increased at same time.

Window For Long Term Model

Window For Short Term Model

Source: Internal data

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Nowcasting – Predicting The Present – Auto Sales Example

2

Auto Sales by Make (Top 9 Make by Sales) Monthly Sales vs. Google Trends at Second Week of each month

  • Source:Automotive News Data Center