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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook June 2002 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council PowerPoint Presentation
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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook June 2002 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council. U.S. Real GDP Growth. World Real GDP Growth. U.S. Net Farm Income. Agricultural Spending. Agricultural Spending. FED’s Major Currencies Dollar Index.

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U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookJune 2002Prepared by:Economic ServicesNational Cotton Council

u s supply and demand
U.S. Supply and Demand

Million Bales

Beginning Stocks 6.0

Production 20.3

Imports .0

Total Supply 26.3

Mill Use 7.6

Exports 11.0

Total Offtake 18.6

Ending Stocks 7.7

Stocks-to-Use Ratio 41.4%

2001/02

2002/03

top customers for u s raw cotton
1990

County (000 Bales)

Japan 1,538

China 1,347

Korea 1,185

Indonesia 552

Italy 424

Taiwan 354

2001YTD

Country (000 Bales)

Mexico 2,393

Turkey 1,541

India 1,057

Indonesia 1,040

Taiwan 823

Thailand 736

Top Customers for U.S. Raw Cotton
u s supply and demand1
U.S. Supply and Demand

Million Bales

Beginning Stocks 6.0 7.7

Production 20.3 17.8

Imports .0 .0

Total Supply 26.3 25.5

Mill Use 7.6

Exports 11.0

Total Offtake 18.6

Ending Stocks 7.7

Stocks-to-Use Ratio 41.4%

2001/02

2002/03

2002 u s planting intentions
2002 U.S. Planting Intentions

Thousand Acres

2001 2002 %

Actual Intended Change

Southeast 3,610 3,548 -1.7

Mid-South 4,595 4,015 -12.6

Southwest 6,312 6,028 -4.5

West 1,010 905 -10.4

ALL UPLAND15,52714,496-6.6

ALL ELS 261 275 5.3

ALL COTTON 15,788 14,771 -6.4

u s supply and demand2
U.S. Supply and Demand

Million Bales

Beginning Stocks 6.0 7.7

Production 20.3 17.8

Imports .0 .0

Total Supply 26.3 25.5

Mill Use 7.6 7.8

Exports 11.0 11.0

Total Offtake 18.6 18.8

Ending Stocks 7.7

Stocks-to-Use Ratio 41.4%

2001/02

2002/03

2002 03 chinese estimates
2002/03 Chinese Estimates

ICAC USDA Cotlook

Begin Stock 12,500 11,590

Production 20,600 21,150 20,655

Imports 1,800 2,000 1,375

Total Supply 34,900 34,740

Mill Use 25,700 25,000 24,300

Exports 200 200 230

End. Stocks 8,900 9,540

u s supply and demand3
U.S. Supply and Demand

Million Bales

Beginning Stocks 6.0 7.7

Production 20.3 17.8

Imports .0 .0

Total Supply 26.3 25.5

Mill Use 7.6 7.8

Exports 11.0 11.0

Total Offtake 18.6 18.8

Ending Stocks 7.7 6.7

Stocks-to-Use Ratio 41.4% 35.6%

2001/02

2002/03

world supply and demand
World Supply and Demand

Million Bales

Beginning Stocks 40.1 44.8

Production 98.0 91.0

Total Supply 138.0 135.8

Mill Use 93.5 95.5

Ending Stocks 44.8 40.6

Stocks-to-Use Ratio 47.9% 42.5%

2001/02

2002/03

farm bill impacts
Farm Bill Impacts
  • DEMAND STIMULUS
    • Elimination of Step 2 threshold of 1.25 cents
    • Adds 400 - 500,000 bales
  • PRODUCTION NEUTRAL
    • Payments are decoupled from planting
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Ginners

Crushers

Merchants

Warehouses

Manufacturers

Producers

Cooperatives