Gambling Expansion in New Hampshire David Lumbert Boyd Lever Andrew Newcomb Is it a Gamble?
New Hampshire Gaming Study Commission • Cannibalization of Lottery Revenue • Gambling and Crime • Social Impacts
The Fiscal Impacts of Casino Legalization Cannibalization of State Lottery Revenue? VS.
The United States: A Nation of Lotteries - 43 States with Lotteries - Contributing $70 to $2500 Million to State Budgets
What About Introducing Casinos ? NEED TO EDIT HERE In Theory: - “Significant Cannibalization” of Lottery Revenue - Fink, Rork… what did he say - Navin… what did he say But models are specific; Not universally applicable. Empirical Evidence from the 10 states with both
States with Casinos and Lotteries - 10 States with Lotteries & Casinos - The Research Targets to Determine the Degree of Cannibalization of Lottery Revenues
Findings and Future Directions: • Fear of Lethal Cannibalization Not Generally Realistic • Tax Rate on Commercial Casino ? • - Compare Revenues in 10 States immediately pre- & post- Casino • - Tease out the magnitude of cannibalization • Quantify Fiscal Impacts of Changes in Casino-related Employment • - Money is Not Everything: What are the other Impacts of Gambling Expansion ?
Gambling and Crime Will expanding gambling in New Hampshire lead to an increase in crime?
2008 Crime Rates in NH and United States D B E NH is safest state in country C A
Tourism-Crime Connection • As population density increases, crime rate increases • Tourists particularly vulnerable • Nongambling resort complex constructed in Kohala, Hawaii and saw crime rise 300 percent in five years • No specific link between gambling and street crime (Miller and Schwartz, 1998)
Casino-Crime Connection • Casino patrons are different from patrons to other tourist destinations • More incentives to commit crimes around casinos • Areas that legalize gambling will almost certainly see increases in crime Percentage Reporting
Casinos Cause Crime • 8% of crime in casino counties would not be there if the casinos were not there • Crime in casinos remains stable for three years following establishment, but increases after three years • First ten years of casinos operating in Atlantic City crime rose 258% • Casinos are associated with an increase of crime in Wisconsin, 6.7% of major crimes caused by casinos
Casinos Don’t Cause Crime • Some riverboat casinos in Indiana did not see crime raise • Crime in the community does not increase, only crime in the hotels and casinos increases(Curran and Scarpitti,1991) • Casino patrons carry large amounts of cash and drink free alcohol, but actual casinos do not cause crime (Walker, 2008) • 2003 Study: Half of cities with casinos saw crime increase, half saw crime decrease
Findings on Crime • No clear consensus exists on whether or not casinos actually cause crime, but very likely that property crimes in and around the casino will increase • If tourism increases, New Hampshire must be prepared to allocate adequate resources to fighting the crime associated with gambling • Avoid “boomtown” phenomenon (Peak, 1993) where bringing a casino to a rural area causes shock to law enforcement • Further research is needed in determining actual costs of crime, effect gambling has on tourism, and evaluating current crime rates
Who are Problem and Pathological Gamblers? • Comprise 2-5% of total adult population • Contribute 25-50% of all casino revenues • Cost $10,000 per pathological gambler in costs annually
Links to Problem Gambling? • Age • Proximity • Type of Gambling
Gambling and Loss of Social Capital? Social Capital is Already Declining… So? Casino Gambling Expedites the Loss