Week 7: Impacts on Regional PoliticsLecture 18: The American War Against (Terrorist) Taliban 17th March 2003 (Monday)
Mid-term Examination (24th March, Monday) • 30% of the Total Grade • 7:00-8:30pm, Room To Be Announced • Next Monday Class • Covers Lectures 1-20 • 20 Multiple Choices • 1 Short Questions with Choices • Mainstream Questions. E.g. Why did 911 happen? Among the possible reasons, which are valid and which are overstated? Please draw the examples from the course, as well as from other sources that you know, and please answer in your own opinion. • Question from Readings. E.g. Please discuss two of the assigned articles with contradictory perspectives, and analyze the origins of their respective perspective. • Review Session this Week • Please Bring All the Notes • Take it Easy! ^o^
Logistics of Guest Lectures • Israel Consul General Eli Avidar • The Israeli-Palestinian Issue • The Israeli Response to the Current World Order • The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan Announced by US President George W Bush Last Saturday • Lecture 19: 19th March 2003 (Wednesday) • PLEASE ARRIVE ON TIME at 11am SHARP • Lunch (12:00-1:00): Chinese Restaurant (南北小廚), G/F
Structure of Lecture 18:War Against Taliban • Introduction • Relationship Between Superpower Politics & Regional Politics • Afghanistan: A Brief History • Why Afghanistan in the 1st Wave of Anti-terrorism? • Impacts of the War • Conclusion: • What is the Name of the War?
PART I: IntroductionThe Warring Relationship Between Superpower Politics & Regional Politics
On Behalf of the Superpower: Proxy War • War in a Remote Country of the Superpowers: • The Warring Parties are All “Proxies” of the Superpowers. • Backstage Bosses = Superpowers • Advantages: • No Direct Conflict Between the Superpowers • No Civilian Losses • Diplomatic Flexibility
The Angolan Civil War (1970s) • FNLA: US+China-back Angolan Guerilla • MPLA: Cuba-back Angolan Guerilla • Proxy’s Proxy (USSR—Cuba—MPLA) • UNITA: South Africa-back Angolan Guerilla • Proxy’s Proxy (Anglo-American Rightists—South Africa—UNITA)
Proxy or Direct Involvement? • Advantage of Direct Involvement Over Proxy War: • Towards the Iron Triangle (esp. Military and Industrialists) • Targeting towards the Regional Order Vs towards another International Competitor • Internal Politics: Polling, Public Opinion and the Responsibility of Governments…
On Behalf of Host Countries: “Using the Barbarians against Barbarians” • Qing Dynasty’s Strategy to Invite Foreign Powers to Have Fun in China • yiyizhiyi (Using the Barbarians against Barbarians) • The Danger of Being Overtaken • Singapore’s Lee Kuan-Yew • Invite British Interests to Stay to Counter-balance the Malaysian Interests • Taiwan’s Chiang Kai-shek • Invite USA to Station the Seventh Fleet to Safeguard against Communist Aggression
An Ignored Empire in the Past • CNN’s The History of Afghanistan. http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/trade.center/afghanistan.timeline/index.html • Have you heard of Afghanistan before 911? • China’s Vessel-state in the Qing Dynasty • 19th Century: Sphere of Interest between Russia (North) and Britain (South)
Soviet Occupation (1979-1989) • 1973: Deposition of Zahir Shah • Civil War between Various Parties (Ethnic Minorities, Islamists & Communists) • 1978: USSR Sponsored a Coup • 1979: Iranian Revolution • Rise of Islamist Movement • 1979: Counter-Coup in Afghanistan • Fall of Communist Regime • Soviet Invasion under Brezhnev • Execution of the Counter-Coup Leader Amin • Guerilla Resistance Never Stopped
The Afghan Proxy War? • Not a Proxy War at the Beginning: • Afghan Guerillas backed by Fellow Islamic Countries in the Counter-coup • After the Soviet Invasion: • Mujahideen (Afghan Soldiers of the God, inc. Taliban and Laden) became an Anti-Communist Slogan • Backed by Anti-Soviet Powers (USA, NATO, China) • Backed by Islamic Powers (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan) • All the Laden Allies! • Western Technologies • Islamic Ideologies
The Soviet Failure • International Backing of Mujahideen • International Embargo • The 1980 Moscow Olympic Games • Local Geography and Tactics • Over-conscious in the American Preparation • Tactical Failure • Military Vs Economic Aggression • Imperial Overreach of USSR • End of Détente in the Cold War • Analogy of Computer War Games • 1989: Soviet Withdrawal, as USSR was Collapsing
The Taliban Regime (1996-2001) • Warlord Era (1989-1996) • Taliban = “students” of Islamic Fundamentalism • Pushtun, the Largest Tribe in Afghanistan • Strict Disciplines, Committed Ideology • Conquered Kabul & 90% of Land at 1996 • Legitimate Regime in Afghanistan (1996-2001) • The True Taliban and the Opportunist Taliban • Foreign Allies: • Taught and Trained by Pakistan • Economically Sponsored by KSA, UAE (the only 3 Countries Recognized Taliban Before 911) • Leader: Mullah Omar, Mutawakki, Zaeef
When Taliban turned Extremist • Arrival of Osama Bin Laden • The Puritan Dictatorship of Islam • Sacred Plan to Destroy Buddhism • Destruction of Buddhist Statutes of Bamyan • Loss of Anti-American Sympathy • The Chinese “Rebirth” Proposal • Any Credit? • The Cruel Stability • The Taliban Talk on Campus
Osama Bin Laden & Mullah Omar • Partnership During the War against USSR • Assistance of Laden to Taliban • Public Administration Expert • Money from KSA • Stronger Ideological Control • Kabul as a Terrorist Base? • Symbiotic Relationship or Mere Guest? • The American Argument • The Taliban Argument
Bush Doctrine and Afghanistan • Bush Doctrine: Tailor-made for Taliban: • “Those harboring terrorists will be treated as terrorists” • Against any Proxies for Taliban • Laden = Chief Suspect of Terrorism Taliban “Hosting” Laden Taliban = Chief Suspect of Terrorism as well Must NOT be a Proxy War
Rationales Beneath the Table? • Long-term Planning Conspiracy Theory? • Lack of Knowledge in USA on Afghanistan Before 911 • Vs Long-planned War against Iraq • Afghanistan = Route to Oil Only, not Oil • Immediate Planning? • Embarrassment of “No Enemies” • If Laden escaped elsewhere with no evidence to show his existence, what might America bomb? How could they react? • Strategic Planning of Restructuring Regional Order was only Added During the War
The Sudden Collapse of Taliban • The “War” (Oct – Dec 2002) • Expected Duration: • 10 Years (Example of the Last Superpower: USSR) • 2 Months for USA • Reasons behind the Sudden Collapse • Military Reasons: US Technology • Assistance of the Northern Alliance • Bribery of the Pushtun Leaders in Taliban • Retreat of KSA/ UAE Money • The Great Betrayal of Pakistan • Anything Else?! – the Rebirth of Taliban in the Future?
Assigned Readings • Main Text: • William Maley: “The Reconstruction of Afghanistan” (B&D P.184-193) • Supplementary Text: • Milton Bearden. “Graveyard of Empire” (H&R P.83-96). • CNN’s The History of Afghanistan. http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/trade.center/afghanistan.timeline/index.html
The New Order in Afghanistan • Coalition Government under Hamid Karzai • Deposed Zahir Shah as the “Symbolic Supreme Leader” • Convention of Loya Jirga • Introduction of “Reforms” • Complete Disappearance of Taliban, Mullah Omar and Osama Bin Laden?!
Assessing the American Success in terms of Anti-terrorism • Eradication of a Terrorist Base YES • Eradication of Al-Qaeda? NO • Capture of Laden, Life or Dead? NO • International Sympathy: • Shifting from the American side to the Arabic side • More Terrorist Attacks after 911: • Indonesia, Russia, Kenya, Philippines • If Afghanistan was not attacked, will there be more attacks or less? Safer or more dangerous?
Assessing the American Success in terms of Establishing a New Regional Order • American Grand Oil Plan? • Central Asian Republics Afghanistan Iraq Turkey Black Sea USA? Yes • Retreat of Russian and Islamic Influence in Afghanistan? Not Sure • Afghanistan became an “American Lake” • Starting Point to Expand in the Region • Domino Effects • Bush’s Attempt to Create “More Afghanistans” • Neighboring Countries Wary of their Easy Collapses
The Transition of American Policies • After the East Victory • More Ambitious, More Barbaric • Before the War against Taliban • More Cautious, More Strategic
Impacts on Afghanistan: The Bright Side • Freedom of Women • Sima Samar: Deputy Premier of Afghanistan • Education for All Students • “Human” Entertainment • The Afghani National Soccer Team in the Asian Olympic Games • International Attention: the Chance to Raise Donation…
Impacts on Afghanistan: The Doom Side • Return to the Warlord Era • Urban Order Vs Rural Disorder • Assassinations of Ministers • Assassination Attempts against President Karzai • Continuation of Poverty • Still the “Opium Empire” • A “Full” American Protégé: • Personal Guards of Hamid Karzal – Who Are They? • Who are Maintaining Order at Kabul? • Or, is America being “Used” as a “Barbarian” against the “Barbaric” Taliban?
Name of the War… • “War of Anti-Terrorism”? (USA) • “War of American Imperialism”? (Laden) • “War of American Conspiracy”? (Conspiracy Theory) • “War of Afghani Rebirth”? (US Humanitarians)
Name of the War (II)… • “Civil War assisted by the American Follies”? (Northern Alliance) • “War of the nth Anti-aggression Campaign of Afghanistan”? (Afghan history) • War of No Meanings? • What is the Name of the War against Iraq?
~~The End~~ Thank you for attending