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  1. PREDICT and ITACS Briefing for AAEI Annual Conference FDA Office of Regulatory Affairs Office of Regional Operations Division of Import Operations & Policy Systems Branch June 2, 2009

  2. Topics • PREDICT (Predictive Risk-based Evaluation for Dynamic Import Compliance Targeting) • Entry data quality, and why it really will matter with PREDICT • ITACS (Import Trade Auxiliary Communications System)

  3. PREDICTPredictive Risk-based Evaluation for Dynamic Import Compliance Targeting Purpose: Improve import screening and targeting to • Prevent the entry of adulterated, misbranded, or otherwise violative goods • Expedite the entry of non-violative goods Method: Replace the admissibility screening portion of FDA’s legacy electronic system for processing import entries.

  4. OASISOperational and Administrative System for Import Support • Legacy system operating 24/7 FDA-wide since 1998 • The only system in the Federal government which exchanges import admissibility data with U.S. Customs & Border Protection in real time • Provides -- • Electronic screening of entry lines • Workflow management for entry reviewers, inspectors, and compliance officers • Generation of notices regarding admissibility decisions

  5. Workload: Import entry lines, in millions(excluding mail and baggage)

  6. Electronic Transactions Import Entry Lines OASIS Prior Notice Center PN screening – food Customs Entry filer foods Firms, product code foods others PREDICT 801(a) screening Yes OK? No “FDA review” message “May proceed” message FDA district entry reviewer Review? No Yes

  7. Field exam FDA district entry reviewer Initial action? ??? Good Results? Bad Documents requested by FDA Sample, analyze “May proceed” message Detain w/o physical exam Detain Compliance action Release with comment Compliance Officer Release Entry filer IB release

  8. PREDICT method • Use automated data mining and pattern discovery • Utilize open-source intelligence • Provide automated queries of Center databases where relevant (i.e., registration and listing, marketing approval status, low-acid canned food scheduled processes, etc.) 1 of 2

  9. PREDICT method • Improve the “hit” rate for exams and samples by – • Scoring each entry line on the basis of risk factors and surveillance requirements • Increase the number of automated, real-time, risk-based “may proceed” decisions, thereby giving entry reviewers more time to evaluate higher-risk lines • For those lines not given an automated “may proceed,” providing reviewers with the line scores and the reasons for those scores 2 of 2

  10. Examples of source data for PREDICT screening rules • Results of field exams and sample analyses of previous entries • Results of facility inspections, foreign and domestic • Ratings of inherent product risks • Accuracy of product and facility coding by entry filers 1 of 2

  11. Examples of source data for PREDICT screening rules • Data anomalies within the current entry • Admissibility history with respect to the manufacturer, exporter, importer, and consignee for the current product (at industry and more specific levels) • Open source intelligence pertaining to the manufacturer, foreign locale, product, etc. 2 of 2

  12. Pilot test • Began June 4, 2007 • Covered 32,696 lines of seafood entering at five ports within Los Angeles District • Limited electronic interface with OASIS allowed PREDICT to screen and to issue “may proceeds” • Reviewers presented with line scores and background information in PREDICT application • Reviewers used OASIS to enter their decisions and workflow assignments

  13. “Hit rates” Field Exams Sample Analyses

  14. Violation Significance Index Field Exams Sample Analyses

  15. Effective rates –Automated “may proceed” FY 2006 Control PREDICT The effective rate is lower than the individual line rate because of a business rule which requires that if any one line of an entry does not receive a “may proceed,” all lines will be held.

  16. Project becomes program Simulation testing Performance evaluation MARCS Imports v.1.0 UAT Pilot test evaluation Timeline FY 2005 - 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 Oct 2008 Mar 2009 July 2009 Jan 2008 Sept 2007 July 2005 Oct 2009 PHASE 1 Iterative prototype development Pilot test PHASE 2 Migration to production environment PHASE 3 Operation and expansion to additional rules • PHASE 2 detail: • Scale up • Development of automated database look ups • Expansion to full product set with limited rule set NOTE: Timeline is not to scale.

  17. MIDCustoms’ manufacturer identification • Receiving inconsistent MIDs for the same foreign facility is a serious data quality issue for FDA. • Current record: 75 different MIDs for one facility • Typical case: 6 different MIDs for one facility • Submitting a different MID for an established, site-specific facility will cause PREDICT to view the facility as new, and the entry line’s risk score will be substantially elevated. • The long-term solution is to replace the MID with a unique, reproducible identifier such as DUNS.

  18. Entry reviewer workload Entry lines not given a “may proceed” by PREDICT go to an entry reviewer for manual processing. “In” box

  19. Affirmations of compliance • Affirmations of compliance are data elements submitted voluntarily to FDA to expedite the entry review process. For example: • New drug application number • Device “510(k) clearance” number • National drug code (NDC) • Radiological health product report accession number

  20. Without PREDICT:Affirmations of compliance • OASIS cannot utilize affirmations of compliance to do automated lookups in Center databases for marketing status. • OASIS sends nearly all entry lines for low-acid canned foods and for medical products to entry reviewers (no system “may proceeds”).

  21. With PREDICT:Affirmations of compliance • With accurate and complete affirmations of compliance (NDA, ANDA, PMA, 510(k), NDC numbers, etc.), PREDICT can do the automated lookups for marketing status. • If an automated lookup fails, the entry line will be forwarded to a reviewer for manual processing.

  22. Importers and Filers • When PREDICT comes online, the quality of the data you submit to FDA will count more than ever. • Importers need to work closely with filers to ensure data quality. • Poor data quality or missing data will increase the risk scores for your entry lines. • Filers’ data error rates will be available to the public through the Freedom of Information Act. • Higher risk scores increase the likelihood of examination and/or sampling by FDA.

  23. ITACSImport Trade Auxiliary Communications System • Internet portal for entry filers to • Check the status of individual entries/lines • Submit documents and link them to specific entries/lines • Provide availability information for targeted shipments • Submitted documents will be readily available to entry reviewers • To be pilot tested in Los Angeles concurrently with PREDICT beta testing

  24. ITACS screenshot examples • Entry line status • Document submission • Availability of product for inspection

  25. Entry line status

  26. Document submission

  27. Availability of product for inspection

  28. Questions?