France whither indicative planning
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France: Whither Indicative Planning?. The country of paradoxes (dirigisme a la Colbert and laissez faire) centrism and regionalism, socialism and nationalism, mercantilism and protectionism The revolutionary tradition The country of –isms The European integration. Factoid.

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France: Whither Indicative Planning?

  • The country of paradoxes (dirigisme a la Colbert and laissez faire) centrism and regionalism, socialism and nationalism, mercantilism and protectionism

  • The revolutionary tradition

  • The country of –isms

  • The European integration


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Factoid

http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/fr.html


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The theory of indicative planning

  • CGP (Ministry of Economy and Finance)

  • Marshall Plan :http://lcweb.loc.gov/exhibits/marshall/

  • INSEE (plan organization) information gathering and forecasting

  • Warranted growth rate

  • Information gap

  • Commitment through participation, expertise and contract (concertation, communication, bargaining)


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The issues of indicative planning

  • Market failure in access to reliable info (rates of growth, interest rates, currency trends etc)

  • Information costs and a dialogue about needs and intentions

  • Informed macroeconomic environment for microeconomic decision making (parameters)

  • Forecasting of the trends and self-fulfilling prophecies

  • Information as a public good

  • No forward markets can replicate government info provision


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Deficiencies of indicative planning

  • Reliability of the estimates (discounting exogenous changes)

  • Potential endogenous equilibria might be challenged by exogenous shocks

  • Degree of compliance (business optimism instead of running amok animal spirits)

  • Tacit collusion and a decrease in competitiveness and erosion of competition


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Performance of plans

  • War damage repair

  • Concertation or dialogue (info sharing and interaction of micro-agents))

  • Macroeconomic forecasting (success peak)

  • Social goals, infrastructure, regional policy

  • Microeconomics, competitiveness, inflation

  • Supply side rapid industrial growth

  • Anti-planning phase ( the presidency of d’Estaing)


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The history of plans

  • Jean Monnet 1947 Recovery

  • Harmonization 1952-1965(conflict of short term stabilization and long term investment)

  • Social concerns 1965-1975(regional plans and technical models)

  • Late 1970s planning decline

  • 1980 socialist reforms (expansion of the public sector) Mitterrand 1989


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Current planning agenda

  • Globalization and the French economy

  • The evolution of the European union

  • Social cohesion ( diminishing various divides)

  • Institutional modernization


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Continued

  • High-tech momentum(1980-1984)

  • Administrative decentralization(1984-1988)

  • European integration (1989-1992)

  • Maastricht treaty

  • The Eastern expansion of the European Union


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Labor-management relations

  • Corporatism

  • Autogestion

  • High unemployment (discouragement of labor supply)


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The role of the state

  • The evolution from a large state sector to greater privatization and mixed forms

  • The decline of indicative planning and the strengthening of protectionism

  • The internal politics of bridging divides and continuing welfare state


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The identity of France

  • From statism to the center of europeanization to world presence and leadership in individual industries and staunch standing on agricultural policy


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