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France: Whither Indicative Planning?. The country of paradoxes (dirigisme a la Colbert and laissez faire) centrism and regionalism, socialism and nationalism, mercantilism and protectionism The revolutionary tradition The country of –isms The European integration. Factoid.

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france whither indicative planning
France: Whither Indicative Planning?
  • The country of paradoxes (dirigisme a la Colbert and laissez faire) centrism and regionalism, socialism and nationalism, mercantilism and protectionism
  • The revolutionary tradition
  • The country of –isms
  • The European integration
factoid

Factoid

http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/fr.html

the theory of indicative planning
The theory of indicative planning
  • CGP (Ministry of Economy and Finance)
  • Marshall Plan :http://lcweb.loc.gov/exhibits/marshall/
  • INSEE (plan organization) information gathering and forecasting
  • Warranted growth rate
  • Information gap
  • Commitment through participation, expertise and contract (concertation, communication, bargaining)
the issues of indicative planning
The issues of indicative planning
  • Market failure in access to reliable info (rates of growth, interest rates, currency trends etc)
  • Information costs and a dialogue about needs and intentions
  • Informed macroeconomic environment for microeconomic decision making (parameters)
  • Forecasting of the trends and self-fulfilling prophecies
  • Information as a public good
  • No forward markets can replicate government info provision
deficiencies of indicative planning
Deficiencies of indicative planning
  • Reliability of the estimates (discounting exogenous changes)
  • Potential endogenous equilibria might be challenged by exogenous shocks
  • Degree of compliance (business optimism instead of running amok animal spirits)
  • Tacit collusion and a decrease in competitiveness and erosion of competition
performance of plans
Performance of plans
  • War damage repair
  • Concertation or dialogue (info sharing and interaction of micro-agents))
  • Macroeconomic forecasting (success peak)
  • Social goals, infrastructure, regional policy
  • Microeconomics, competitiveness, inflation
  • Supply side rapid industrial growth
  • Anti-planning phase ( the presidency of d’Estaing)
the history of plans
The history of plans
  • Jean Monnet 1947 Recovery
  • Harmonization 1952-1965(conflict of short term stabilization and long term investment)
  • Social concerns 1965-1975(regional plans and technical models)
  • Late 1970s planning decline
  • 1980 socialist reforms (expansion of the public sector) Mitterrand 1989
current planning agenda
Current planning agenda
  • Globalization and the French economy
  • The evolution of the European union
  • Social cohesion ( diminishing various divides)
  • Institutional modernization
continued
Continued
  • High-tech momentum(1980-1984)
  • Administrative decentralization(1984-1988)
  • European integration (1989-1992)
  • Maastricht treaty
  • The Eastern expansion of the European Union
labor management relations
Labor-management relations
  • Corporatism
  • Autogestion
  • High unemployment (discouragement of labor supply)
the role of the state
The role of the state
  • The evolution from a large state sector to greater privatization and mixed forms
  • The decline of indicative planning and the strengthening of protectionism
  • The internal politics of bridging divides and continuing welfare state
the identity of france
The identity of France
  • From statism to the center of europeanization to world presence and leadership in individual industries and staunch standing on agricultural policy