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Diagnosing High-impact Weather NAEFS Teleconference: 14 th September 2006 Helen Watkin THORPEX and High-Impact weather THORPEX aim: “to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1 to 14-day high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment”

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Diagnosing High-impact Weather

NAEFS Teleconference: 14th September 2006

Helen Watkin

thorpex and high impact weather
THORPEX and High-Impact weather
  • THORPEX aim:

“to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1 to 14-day high-impactweather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy and the environment”

Develop diagnostic tools to identify high-impact weather using ensemble data

Parameter-based & Feature-based

Develop appropriate forecast products to predict the risk of

high-impact events

Use diagnostics to analyse ability of TIGGE and component models to predict high-impact weather events

high impact weather and features
High-Impact weather and features
  • Almost all high-impact weather is feature-related e.g. extra-tropical cyclones leading to strong winds/heavy rain in the UK
  • Numerical models often do not explicitly represent the severe weather parameters, especially in lower resolution ensembles
  • They can however represent the features causing the high-impact weather
  • For high-impact weather prediction, focus on post-processing ensemble data through automated identification and tracking of synoptic features
  • Analysis of feature tracks and attributes allows evaluation of the potential for high-impact weather

Extra-tropical cyclones:

Tim Hewson’s Cyclone Database

Tropical cyclones:

Julian Heming’s storm identification and tracking program

cyclone database snapshot
Cyclone database snapshot

Barotropic low

Standard diminutive wave

Standard frontal wave

Weak frontal wave

Weak diminutive wave

cyclone database tracking and matching
In order to produce “feature-specific” diagnostics, need to track each feature in each member and cross-reference or “match” each feature across the ensemble

Tracking and matching schemes developed to select the optimum match based on distance and feature attributes

Cyclone database: Tracking and Matching
cyclone database feature specific plumes
Cyclone database feature-specific plumes

Analysis 00Z 12/01/05


1km Relative Vorticity

Max 1km wind in 300km radius

summary and future plans
Summary and future plans
  • Developing diagnostic tools to identify high-impact weather
    • Parameter-based products e.g. Probability plots, persistent dry/wet
    • Feature-based tools e.g. Cyclone Database for extra-tropical cyclones

Tropical Cyclone tracking

    • Forecast circulation types e.g. Objective-Grosswetterlagen method

Future Plans

  • Parameter and feature-based diagnostics will be used in combination to evaluate the performance in case studies of high-impact weather of

i) new Met Office 15-day ensemble

ii) TIGGE multi-model ensemble

  • Continue the development of parameter and feature-based diagnostics, and prototype products for forecasters