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Final Seminar 10-11 June 2010 Brussels Belgium. Pulp Friction Pilot Marjo Hippi Finnish Meteorological institute. Vaisala DSC111. Idea. Snow and ice may exist almost 6 months a year on Finnish road network Increased traffic incident risk

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Pulp Friction Pilot Marjo Hippi Finnish Meteorological institute


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Presentation Transcript
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Vaisala DSC111

Idea
  • Snow and ice may exist almost 6 months a year on Finnish road network
    • Increased traffic incident risk
  • Develop a statisticalforecast model for road surface friction based on friction measurements made by Vaisala DSC111 instrument
  • Develop a forecast tool for meteorologists and road maintenance personnel
  • Product(s) for drivers

ROADIDEA Final Seminar @ Brussels, 10-11 June, 2010

fmi s road weather model

Upper boundary forcing

  • Atmosphere
  • wind speed (Vz)
  • air temperature and humidity (Ta , Rh)
  • global (short wave) radiation (RS)
  • incoming long wave radiation (RL)
  • precipitation (P)
  • Traffic
  • mechanical wear, heating
FMI’s road weather model
  • Turbulence
  • natural
  • traffic induced
  • Surface heat exchange
  • sensible heat flux (H)
  • latent heat flux (LE)
  • long wave radiation (RL)
  • stability
  • Ground heat transfer
  • heat conductivity ()
  • specific heat (c)
  • density ()
  • porosity ()

ROADIDEA Final Seminar @ Brussels, 10-11 June, 2010

road weather classification
Road weather classification

Classification by Finnish Transport Agency

ROADIDEA Final Seminar @ Brussels, 10-11 June, 2010

observed friction vs snow ice and water on the surface
Observed friction vs. snow+ice and water on the surface

Anjala observations, winter 2007-2008

a)

b)

Observed friction with ice and/or snow on the surface

(water content in mm)

Observed friction with water on the surface.

ROADIDEA Final Seminar @ Brussels, 10-11 June, 2010

how does the friction model work

Simulation

  • Input data
  • Depth of ice/snow/water
  • Road surface temperature
  • Output data
  • Friction

FMI's road

weather model

run

How does the friction model work?

All input data is available from FMI road weather model

  • Friction formulas included into the road weather model

ROADIDEA Final Seminar @ Brussels, 10-11 June, 2010

implementation
Implementation
  • Google.maps application presents 3-hour forecast of expected road weather
      • Temperature
      • Friction
      • Road condition
  • Produced in collaboration between FMI, Destia and Demis
  • http://pilot.roadidea.eu/friction/
  • Also, a mobile phone application available
  • Information of road weather (including friction), roadside photographs, warnings given by other users
  • Produced in collaboration between FMI, Destia and Logica

ROADIDEA Final Seminar @ Brussels, 10-11 June, 2010

validation results
Validation results
  • Modeled vs. observed road surface friction when snow/ice on the surface
  • Correlation 0.86

More Pulp Friction validation and evaluation results in WP8 presentation by Stephanie Müller

Utti 2009/2010

ROADIDEA Final Seminar @ Brussels, 10-11 June, 2010

more results

Modeled

Observed

Modeled

Modeled

Observed

Modeled

More results
  • Model simulates cases of poor friction well, but…
  • Model produces typically too low friction values for a too long time
    • The road weather model has too big storages for ice
    • The road weather model lacks information about road maintenance actions  Necessary input data for a well-functioning model !

ROADIDEA Final Seminar @ Brussels, 10-11 June, 2010

conclusions and future
Conclusions and future
  • Friction model is a new, innovative product
  • Results are not quite as good as expected, but the shortcomings are realized
  • Further development, testing and evaluation is an ongoing process

Guidelines

  • Define station specific relationships at all computation points
  • Investigate a probabilistic approach to friction/slipperiness forecasting

ROADIDEA Final Seminar @ Brussels, 10-11 June, 2010