MODELLING AND FORECASTING THE DEMAND FOR SAWNWOOD IN WESTERN EUROPE FROM AN END-USE PERSPECTIVE Anders Baudin Växjö University, Sweden. Objectives:. - to specify homogenous sectors with respect to sawnwood consumption - to produce a time series data base for sawnwood
- to specify homogenous sectors with respect to sawnwood consumption
- to produce a time series data base for sawnwood
consumption by sector for econometric analysis
- - to specify a set of models that explain consumer
behavior in the sectors that are based on sound
theoretical formulation and practical consideration
- to use the estimated model system to produce forecasts.
Stairs and ladders
Sectors analysed by applying econometric models in the United Kingdom.
Dwellings Other Building & Construction Windows Flooring
Furniture Non-domestic constructions RMI
Doors Stairs Fencing Packaging
Reasons for substitution(i) substitution based on price competition? (ii) cost based substitution ?(iii) balanced by income factors ? (iv) depends on other factors such as fashion, legislation, technology not included in cost or price variables ?
Models for market shareswhere Xt is a vector of independent variables including own-prices, prices of complementary products and competing products, indicators of maintenance cost and private consumption as a shifter
Dependent variable: lnHS, the natural logarithm of housing starts
R2adj = .68DW = 1.45
lnR -.3505 -3.09
lnI .6822 2.88
t -.0474 -7.54
Time period analysed: 1970 - 90 (annual data) se = .15
Dependent variable: Logit of the (value) market share for wood in packaging. Time period analysed: 1970 - 1986 (annual data).
R2adj = .83 se = .09 DW = 1.74
(i) Macroeconomic forecasts of GDP, Private consumption, Gross fixed capital formation etc. are used as exogenous inputs to the estimated model system
(ii) ARIMA-modelling (Box & Jenkins, 1976) is used to establish projections for variables not publicly available.
(iii) For the UK and Germany, the econometric system is estimated using SUR. Forecasts of exogenous variables are, for Germany, obtained by VAR models