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A Primer for Politics in Slovakia Tim Haughton, University of Birmingham and Kevin Deegan-Krause, Wayne State University. `. Topics. `. Legal Framework How do law and constitution shape politics? Issues What is politics really about? Parties What do the main players stand for?

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A Primer forPolitics in SlovakiaTim Haughton, University of Birmingham and Kevin Deegan-Krause, Wayne State University

`


Topics
Topics

`

  • Legal Framework

  • How do law and constitution shape politics?

  • Issues

  • What is politics really about?

  • Parties

  • What do the main players stand for?

  • Can they get what they want?

  • Coalitions

  • What governments could form after the 2006 election?

  • What are the implications for the US?


Part i
Part I.

`

  • Legal Framework for Politics

    • Electoral System

    • Presidency

    • Coalition Council

    • Laws on Parties


Legal framework
Legal Framework

  • Electoral System

    • One single nation-wide district

    • Proportional distribution of seats

Share of Seats

Share of Votes


Legal framework1
Legal Framework

  • Electoral System

    • One single nation-wide district

    • Proportional distribution of seats

    • But 5% threshold determines proportions

Share of Seats

Share of Votes


Legal framework2
Legal Framework

  • Electoral System

    • One single nation-wide district

    • Proportional distribution of seats

    • But 5% threshold determines proportions

Just over 5%

Share of Seats

Share of Votes


Legal framework3
Legal Framework

  • Electoral System

    • One single nation-wide district

    • Proportional distribution of seats

    • But 5% threshold determines proportions

Less than 5%

Share of Seats

Share of Votes


Legal framework4
Legal Framework

  • Electoral System

    • One single nation-wide district

    • Proportional distribution of seats

    • But 5% threshold determines proportions

  • Presidency

    • Few powers (affects appointments, limited veto)

    • But direct election means legitimacy

    • And president chooses Prime Minister designate

  • Coalition Council

    • Informal organization

    • But after 2002, de facto center of power

    • Means that party leaders need not always be members of government

  • Party Rules


Part ii
Part II.

`

  • Issues

    • Economic Reform

    • Integration

    • Nationalism and Democracy

    • Culture and Morals


Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present

Nationalism

CommunismState Control

Anti-Communism

Free Market

Broader Integration


Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present

1990

Independent Slovakia

CommunismState Control

Anti-Communism

Free Market

Czechoslovakia


Issues shift in dominant issue 1989 present
Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present

1992

Independent Slovakia

CommunismState Control

Anti-Communism

Free Market

Czechoslovakia


Issues shift in dominant issue 1989 present1
Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present

1994

Slovak Nationalism

Authoritarianism

CommunismState Control

Anti-Communism

Free Market

Czechoslovakia/Integration

Democracy


Issues shift in dominant issue 1989 present2
Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present

1998

Slovak Nationalism

Authoritarianism

CommunismState Control

Anti-Communism

Free Market

Integration

Democracy


Issues shift in dominant issue 1989 present3
Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present

2002

Nationalism/Euroskepticism

Authoritarianism

CommunismState Control

Anti-Communism

Free Market

Integration

Democracy


Issues shift in dominant issue 1989 present4
Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present

Today

Nationalism/Euroskepticism

Authoritarianism

CommunismState Control

Anti-Communism

Free Market

Integration

Democracy


Issues shift in dominant issue 1989 present5
Issues: Shift in dominant issue, 1989-present

Emerging?

Nationalism/Euroskepticism

Authoritarianism

Church/Morality

CommunismState Control

Anti-Communism

Free Market

Cultural Freedom

Integration

Democracy


Issues free market v state control
Issues: Free Market v. State Control

  • The “Neoliberal” Project

    • Tax: flat-rate and low rates (Miklos)

    • Welfare: social security, pensions (Kanik)

    • Health: hospitals and insurance firms operate as businesses (Zajac) 

    • Education: university fees (Fronc)    

    • Justice: "Californication of Justice Policy" (Lipsic)

  • But specific parties have specific (and different) agendas

    • Agendas reflected in control of ministerial portfolios


Issues residual issues
Issues:Residual Issues

  • Residual Anti-Integration/Nationalism

    • Hungarian questions

    • Roma questions

  • Residual Authoritarianism

    • The question of Meciar

    • The question of Fico


Issues emerging issues
Issues:Emerging Issues

  • Emerging Moral Issues

    • Abortion

    • Homosexuality

  • Emerging Cultural Issues

    • Admission of Turkey to the EU

    • Christianity in EU Constituiton


Part iii
Part III.

`

  • Parties

    • Importance: How much popular support?

    • Stability: What kind of popular support?

    • Organization: Who makes party decisions?

    • Ideology: What does the party stand for?


Parties
Parties

SDKU

Smer

SMK

KSS

KDH

HZDS

ANO

SNS


Parties how popular
Parties: How popular?

SDKU


Parties how popular1
Parties: How popular?

SDKU


Parties who supports
Parties: Who supports?

SDKU

Knows

English

Young

Educated

Urban

Wealthy

Secular

Male

SDKU

SDKU

SDKU

SDKU

SDKU

SDKU

SDKU

Only

Slovak

Old

Low

Education

Rural

Poor

Religious

Female

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties who decides
Parties: Who decides?

SDKU

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

SDKU

SDKU

SDKU

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties who decides1
Parties: Who decides?

SDKU

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

How unified?Splits since founding:Slobodne Forum (2003)Splinters since founding:A fewApparent factions:Residual from prior parties (DU, KDH, DS)Split/Splinter PotentialCurrently low but higher if loss of office

Smer

Smer

Smer


Parties where do party voters stand
Parties: Where do party voters stand?

SDKU

Market

Freedom

EU/Int’l

Integration

Minority

Rights

Cultural

Freedom

SDKU

SDKU

SDKU

SDKU

State

Control

National

Independence

Slovak

Predominance

Morality

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties how much do issues matter
Parties: How much do issues matter?

SDKU

Charisma

Platform

Clientelism

SDKU

SDKU

SDKU

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties how popular2
Parties: How popular?

SMK


Parties how popular3
Parties: How popular?

SMK


Parties who supports1
Parties: Who supports?

SMK

Knows

English

Young

Educated

Urban

Wealthy

Secular

Male

SMK

SMK

SMK

SMK

SMK

SMK

SMK

Only

Slovak

Old

Low

Education

Rural

Poor

Religious

Female

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties who decides2
Parties: Who decides?

SMK

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

SMK

SMK

SMK

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties who decides3
Parties: Who decides?

SMK

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

How unified?Splits since founding:NoneSplinters since founding:NoneApparent factions:Many, ideological and “regional”Split/Splinter PotentialLow as long as current electoral system continues

Smer

Smer

Smer


Parties where do party voters stand1
Parties: Where do party voters stand?

SMK

Market

Freedom

EU/Int’l

Integration

Minority

Rights

Cultural

Freedom

SMK

SMK

SMK

SMK

State

Control

National

Independence

Slovak

Predominance

Morality

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties how much do issues matter1
Parties: How much do issues matter?

SMK

Charisma

Platform

Clientelism

SMK

SMK

SMK

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties how popular4
Parties: How popular?

KDH


Parties how popular5
Parties: How popular?

KDH


Parties who supports2
Parties: Who supports?

KDH

Knows

English

Young

Educated

Urban

Wealthy

Secular

Male

KDH

KDH

KDH

KDH

KDH

KDH

KDH

Only

Slovak

Old

Low

Education

Rural

Poor

Religious

Female

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties who decides4
Parties: Who decides?

KDH

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

KDH

KDH

KDH

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties who decides5
Parties: Who decides?

KDH

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

How unified?Splits since founding:SKDH (1991), SDKU (2000)Splinters since founding:FewApparent factions:Minor, Europhiles v. EurophobesSplit/Splinter PotentialLow

Smer

Smer

Smer


Parties where do party voters stand2
Parties: Where do party voters stand?

KDH

Market

Freedom

EU/Int’l

Integration

Minority

Rights

Cultural

Freedom

KDH

KDH

KDH

KDH

State

Control

National

Independence

Slovak

Predominance

Morality

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties how much do issues matter2
Parties: How much do issues matter?

KDH

Charisma

Platform

Clientelism

KDH

KDH

KDH

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties how popular6
Parties: How popular?

ANO


Parties how popular7
Parties: How popular?

ANO


Parties who supports3
Parties: Who supports?

ANO

Knows

English

Young

Educated

Urban

Wealthy

Secular

Male

ANO

ANO

ANO

ANO

ANO

ANO

ANO

Only

Slovak

Old

Low

Education

Rural

Poor

Religious

Female

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties who decides6
Parties: Who decides?

ANO

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

ANO

ANO

ANO

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties who decides7
Parties: Who decides?

ANO

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

How unified?Splits since founding:NoneSplinters since founding:ManyApparent factions:Personality basedSplit/Splinter PotentialModerate but very high if loss of office

Smer

Smer

Smer


Parties where do party voters stand3
Parties: Where do party voters stand?

ANO

Market

Freedom

EU/Int’l

Integration

Minority

Rights

Cultural

Freedom

ANO

ANO

ANO

ANO

State

Control

National

Independence

Slovak

Predominance

Morality

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties how much do issues matter3
Parties: How much do issues matter?

ANO

Charisma

Platform

Clientelism

ANO

ANO

ANO

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties how popular8
Parties: How popular?

Smer

Projected

Range


Parties how popular9
Parties: How popular?

Smer


Parties who supports4
Parties: Who supports?

Smer

Knows

English

Young

Educated

Urban

Wealthy

Secular

Male

Smer

Smer

Smer

Smer

Smer

Smer

Smer

Only

Slovak

Old

Low

Education

Rural

Poor

Religious

Female

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties who decides8
Parties: Who decides?

Smer

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

Smer

Smer

Smer

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties who decides9
Parties: Who decides?

Smer

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

How unified?Splits since founding:NoneSplinters since founding:NoneApparent factions:Former social democrats?Split/Splinter PotentialCurrently low but threatened by too much success (i.e. Smer controls government) or too little (i.e.Smer places poorly in yet another election.

Smer

Smer

Smer


Parties where do party voters stand4
Parties: Where do party voters stand?

Smer

Market

Freedom

EU/Int’l

Integration

Minority

Rights

Cultural

Freedom

Smer

Smer

Smer

Smer

State

Control

National

Independence

Slovak

Predominance

Morality

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties how much do issues matter4
Parties: How much do issues matter?

Smer

Charisma

Platform

Clientelism

Smer

Smer

Smer

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties how popular10
Parties: How popular?

KSS


Parties how popular11
Parties: How popular?

KSS


Parties who supports5
Parties: Who supports?

KSS

Knows

English

Young

Educated

Urban

Wealthy

Secular

Male

KSS

KSS

KSS

KSS

KSS

KSS

KSS

Only

Slovak

Old

Low

Education

Rural

Poor

Religious

Female

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties who decides10
Parties: Who decides?

KSS

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

KSS

KSS

KSS

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties who decides11
Parties: Who decides?

KSS

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

How unified?Splits since founding:NoneSplinters since founding:FewApparent factions:Neo-Communists v. “Modernizers”Split/Splinter PotentialCurrently low but problems may arise ifKSS participates in government

Smer

Smer

Smer


Parties where do party voters stand5
Parties: Where do party voters stand?

KSS

Market

Freedom

EU/Int’l

Integration

Minority

Rights

Cultural

Freedom

KSS

KSS

KSS

KSS

State

Control

National

Independence

Slovak

Predominance

Morality

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties how much do issues matter5
Parties: How much do issues matter?

KSS

Charisma

Platform

Clientelism

KSS

KSS

KSS

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties how popular12
Parties: How popular?

HZDS


Parties how popular13
Parties: How popular?

HZDS


Parties who supports6
Parties: Who supports?

HZDS

Knows

English

Young

Educated

Urban

Wealthy

Secular

Male

HZDS

HZDS

HZDS

HZDS

HZDS

HZDS

HZDS

Only

Slovak

Old

Low

Education

Rural

Poor

Religious

Female

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties who decides12
Parties: Who decides?

HZDS

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

HZDS

HZDS

HZDS

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties who decides13
Parties: Who decides?

HZDS

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

How unified?Splits since founding:ADSR (1993)APR (1994)Gaulieder (aborted 1996)HZD (2002)LU (2003)Splinters since founding:ManyApparent factions:Advocates of cooperation with Dzurinda v. Advocates of cooperation with FicoSplit/Splinter PotentialHigh

Smer

Smer

Smer


Parties where do party voters stand6
Parties: Where do party voters stand?

HZDS

Market

Freedom

EU/Int’l

Integration

Minority

Rights

Cultural

Freedom

HZDS

HZDS

HZDS

HZDS

State

Control

National

Independence

Slovak

Predominance

Morality

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties how much do issues matter6
Parties: How much do issues matter?

HZDS

Charisma

Platform

Clientelism

HZDS

HZDS

HZDS

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties how popular14
Parties: How popular?

SNS


Parties how popular15
Parties: How popular?

SNS


Parties who supports7
Parties: Who supports?

SNS

Knows

English

Young

Educated

Urban

Wealthy

Secular

Male

SNS

SNS

SNS

SNS

SNS

SNS

SNS

Only

Slovak

Old

Low

Education

Rural

Poor

Religious

Female

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties who decides14
Parties: Who decides?

SNS

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

SNS

SNS

SNS

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey


Parties who decides15
Parties: Who decides?

SNS

Leader

Apparatus

Membership

How unified?Splits since founding:SKDH (1991)NDS (1994)PSNS (2001)Splinters since founding:NoneApparent factions:PSNS v. SNS?Split/Splinter PotentialHigh but probably not until after election.

Smer

Smer


Parties where do party voters stand7
Parties: Where do party voters stand?

SNS

Market

Freedom

EU/Int’l

Integration

Minority

Rights

Cultural

Freedom

SNS

SNS

SNS

SNS

State

Control

National

Independence

Slovak

Predominance

Morality

Source: 2004 FOCUS opinion survey


Parties how much do issues matter7
Parties: How much do issues matter?

SNS

Charisma

Platform

Clientelism

SNS

SNS

SNS

Source: 2005 Rohrschneider and Whitefield expert survey



Government parties
Government Parties

  • SDKU

    • Pronunciation: ess-day-kah-ooh

    • Slovak name: Slovenska Demokraticka a Krestanska Unie

    • English name: Slovak Democratic and Christian Union

    • Founded: 1999 from members of 1998 Slovak Democratic Coalition

    • Orientation: Pro-market, pro-integration

    • Chair: Mikulas Dzurinda

    • (chair since party’s founding)

    • Ministries: Prime Minister

    • Foreign Affairs, Defense

    • Labor, Social Affairs and Family Transport, Post and Telecommunications

    • Popularity: Averages 10%-15%

    • Deputies: 23

  • MK (MKP in Hungarian, SMK in Slovak)

    • Pronunciation: ess-em-kah or em-kah-pay

    • Slovak name: Strana Madarskej Koalicie

    • English name: Party of the Hungarian Coalition

    • Founded: 1998 from smaller, well-established parties

    • Orientation: Pro-Hungarian, pro-integration

    • moderately conservative, pro-market

    • Chair: Bela Bugar

    • (chair since party’s beginning)

    • Ministries: Deputy Prime Minister for EU Construction and Regional Development Environment, Agriculture

    • Popularity: Stable 10-12%

    • Deputies: 20

  • KDH

    • Pronunciation: kah-day-hah

    • Slovak name: Krestiansko Demokraticke Hnutie

    • English name: Christian Democratic Party

    • Founded: 1990, one of the oldest parties; part of

    • Slovak Democratic Coalition in 1998

    • Orientation: Culturally conservative, pro-market

    • Chair: Pavel Hrusovsky, (elected in 2000)

    • Ministries: Deputy Prime Minister

    • Justice

    • Education

    • Interior

    • Popularity: Averages 8-12%

    • Deputies: 15

  • ANO

    • Pronunciation: ah-no

    • Slovak name: Aliancia Noveho Obcana

    • English name: Alliance of the New Citizen

    • Founded: 2000, a new party

    • Orientation Pro-market, culturally liberal

    • Chair: Pavel Rusko

    • (chair since party’s founding)

    • Ministries: Deputy Prime Minister

    • Economy

    • Health Care

    • Culture

    • Popularity: Averaged 4-8%, now 1-2%

    • Deputies: 11

Former government party deputies

  • SF

    • Pronunciation: ess-eff

    • Slovak name: Slobodne Forum

    • English name: Free Forum

    • Founded: 2003, Splinter from SDKU

    • Orientation: Pro-Market, Reform, Coalition Splinter

  • Chair: Zuzana Martináková

  • (elected in 2004?)

  • Popularity: Averaged 2-5%, now 5%-8%

  • Deputies 5


Main Opposition Parties

  • Smer

    • Pronunciation: “Smare”

    • English name: Direction

    • Founded: 1999 as splinter from

    • former-Communist

    • Party of the Democratic Left

    • Orientation: Social democratic, law and order

    • Chair: Robert Fico

    • (chair since party’s founding)

    • Popularity: Averages 25-35%,

    • a significant rise in the last 3 years

    • Deputies: 27

  • HZDS

    • Pronunciation: Ha-zuh-day-ess

    • Slovak name: Hnutie za Demokraticke Slovensko

    • English name: Movement for a Democratic Slovakia

    • Founded: 1991, splinter from

    • large anticommunist movement

    • Orientation: Nationalist, pro-centralization,

    • anti-democratic

    • Chair: Vladimir Meciar

    • (chair since party’s founding)

    • Popularity: Averages 12-15%

    • Sharp decline from previous elections

    • Deputies: 16

  • SNS

    • Pronunciation: ess-en-ess and/or suh-nah-suh

    • Slovak name: Slovenska Narodna Strana

    • English name: Slovak National Party

    • Founded: 1990, one of the oldest parties, split into two rival factions for 2002 election

    • Orientation: National, anti-NATO, anti-Hungarian

    • Chair: Jan Slota

    • (chair from 1993-1999,

    • left in 2001 to form rival party [PSNS]

    • returned to SNS in 2004 and re-elected)

    • Popularlity: Averages 5-9%

    • Deputies: 0

  • KSS

    • Pronunciation: kah-ess-ess

    • Slovak name: Komunisticka Strana Slovenska

    • English name: Communist Party of Slovakia

    • Founded: 1991, small splinter formed when

    • Communist Party moderated position

    • Orientation: Hard-line former communist

    • (hammer and sickle type)

    • Chair: Jozef Sevc

    • Popularity: Averages 4-7%

    • Deputies: 9

Minor opposition parties

  • LU

    • Pronunciation: ell-ooh

    • Slovak name: Ludova Unia

    • English name: People’s Union

    • Founded 2003, splinter from HZDS

    • Orientation: Nationalist, statist

    • Chair: Gustáv Krajči (began as chair in 2005)

    • Founded: 2003

    • Popularity: Averages 0-1%

    • Deputies: 3

  • HZD

    • Pronunciation: Ha-zuh-day

    • Slovak name: Hnutie za Demokraticiu

    • English name: Movement for Democracy

    • Founded 2002, splinter from HZDS

    • Orientation: Nationalist, statist

    • Chair: Jozef Grapa

    • (chair since Ivan Gasparovic became

    • president in 2004)

    • Popularity: Averages 2-4%


Electoral support by party family
Electoral support by “party family”

Hungarians

The Right

The Left

Anti-

Com-

unists

Nationalists



Government composition by party family
Government composition by party family

Hungarians

?

The Right

?

The Left

?

?

Nationalists


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